There is a self-contradictory circular logic which should stop teams from losing. For Munster it is fear, fear of losing, especially at Thomond. Fear is self-perpetuating, there never will be an end to it. With Leinster . . . I'm still trying to work it out . . . there is a sadomasochistic element to it though.

You could imagine Captain Yossarian listening to the logic of the pool stage. The first match . . . well yeah . . . you have to win coz if you don't, well, its unlikely that you'll qualify if you lose, almost impossible to recover. The first is the most important, the second, well you have to consolidate the first win, build a lead, establish credentials and consistency . . . you lose this one you're back to square one. Third pool game critical.

Back-to-back fixtures, this is the lead-off . . . you beat the opponents it's more than likely that they will be gone or at least it's down to a two-horse race; lose this and you're sucked back into the pack.

The fourth game is un-nerving.

You've just played these bastards.

There is something about the term familiarity in this fixture that has nothing to do with contempt . . .

nobody likes playing a team twice in the space of a week. The contempt is for the competition. Even if you win the fourth leg and it is your fourth win in a row there can be no letups . . . you are not safe . . . you have to go on another bombing mission. Why? Because if you lose match five or six you are out.

Leinster and Munster find themselves in poll position but they will have to win stages five and six to qualify. Got to keep playing, got to keep winning. Each team, irrespective of what happens in stage five, will probably have to win against good English opposition on the last day . . . it will make for a delicious finale.

Looking at the contenders, the only team I see capable of beating Munster are Leinster. Their match on the 27 December was full of bluff and counter bluff.

Despite the level of intensity and the killer pace for about 55 minutes, it was as if they weren't serious about winning the game and for that to seem real you would have to suspend reason and belief that those two hate each other's guts. You would almost have to say that a bonus-point thumping in Lansdowne Road in October was shelved in a little-used goodwill compartment deep in the Munster psyche. "Ah sure they owed us one." Anyway it was almost as if these two teams reckoned they would meet each other again, but for much higher stakes . . . a lofty pre-supposition but to my mind almost a reality.

So of course there was zeal, aggression and purposeful intent, but both teams played their B game until Frankie Sheahan came back on in the 50th minute.

Munster ran everything off skimmed line-out ball and reasonable speed recycle ball . . . don't know why, but they did.

Jonathan Sexton and Leinster's primary auxiliary kicker Denis Hickie hoofed for all they were worth and did it intelligently and with real effect. Leinster played for territory and scrapped with authority against a Munster pack that they had shredded in Lansdowne. This though was Thomond, although they shaded the battle for about 50-55 minutes. Then the masquerade ended. Christy Moore has a song . . . "Don't forget your shovel if you want to go to work."

Munster started digging ditches and got down and dirty and medieval on Leinster.

A few trends came to the surface. Munster are average if they don't have good field position . . . it might seem obvious but you can't exert pressure from deep inside your own half. Secondly, Leinster were quite comfortable defensively . . . they were very confident on the front foot or going to scramble. Their big problem was keeping the ball. Leinster turned it over at least 10 or 11 times . . .

hard to see how or why. Was it that Munster were that good on the ground? Wallace and Leamy are not noted ground players. John O'Sullivan was anonymous before being replaced. Gleeson had an effective game . . . just can't figure out why Leinster lost the ball in contact that often. It killed them and when the Munster pack took charge of the pill, that was it.

One of the things that has been garnered from this is the penalty count trend. Against Munster it was 17-7 against. Leinster's Alan Lewis almost refereed the game too well. George Clancy went 135 against Leinster in their home tie against Ulster . . . that's over 2:1.

Against next week's opponents Edinburgh Joel Jutge went 19-6 against, over 3:1.

There is a myth out there that Leinster can win matches with 30-35% of the ball . . . maybe so, but they won't do it if they are conceding penalties at that ratio and certainly not in the Heineken Cup.

Is this profligacy down to illdiscipline or keeping their tryline intact? Llanelli, who would be real contenders in this year's competition, have shipped 10 tries so far. Gloucester, Leinster's only competition left in the pool, have shipped 13, and Munster similarly have also only conceded five . . .

but their penalty counts are nowhere near as high as Leinster's cataclysmic levels. Maybe the referees don't like sex-change rugby. They also have issued the highest number of yellow cards of any Magners League to the ladyboys. If Leinster make an unscheduled exit . . . ie a loss to anyone other than Munster, Perpignan away and Biarritz away . . .

then you can point to the needless concession of penalties and their ill-discipline.

All this pre-supposes that Leinster qualify from the group. Leinster are cantering at the moment . . . this is when they get giddy, this is when I get nervous. Edinburgh are out of the competition and out of the Magners League. They have serious long-term injuries to most of their key players and Leinster owe them big time. A bonus-point victory would almost ensure qualification as it would be quite an achievement for Gloucester to get a bonus-point win in Agen. Gloucester have a vastly inferior try count and Leinster will know what has to be done because Gloucester and Agen play on the Friday. This makes me even more nervous.

In bombing missions, enemy fighters are often referred to as bogeys. In sport, bogeys are a team you should beat handily every time but inexplicably they beat you and they do it against the laws of probability and natural sporting justice. Leinster scored three tries to one against Edinburgh and should have won handily but contrived to lose a match that could have cost them dear.

Edinburgh are Leinster's bogey side. It is my fervent wish that they come over here next week and roll over and die, but they are a team like Connacht . . . they will f*** somebody's season up.

Leinster fail improbably against this inferior side because they always get caught up in a game that doesn't suit them played at a tempo that suits Edinburgh. They give a sucker team an even break and Edinburgh never seem to be far away when the match nears its end. Edinburgh play a width-based expansive game. It's more monotonous than entertaining as they go through relentless phase after phase and sometimes for opponents it becomes tedious following them wide, recycle after recycle. You get sucked in, lose concentration and the pre-game plan of how to beat them goes out the window. It would be a disaster if Leinster didn't achieve a bonus point . . . it could quite easily happen. But then wouldn't it be great to go to Kingsholm needing something out of the match . . . that is when Leinster are at their best.

Sky Sports love Irish rugby, Jeremy Guscott and Stuart Barnes love us too. After the jingoistic trumpeting of the first round of matches I sincerely hope that Gloucester and Leicester don't unseat us in our pomp.

Those two teams, if they are still in the competition, are capable of a momentous turnover. They owe us one. Bombing raids to continue up until the sixth pool stage and will continue until further notice.