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The iPhone announcement ensures a welcome piece of Apple pie



KER-CHING. Recognise the sound? It's a cash register, a sound that's currently on the verge of deafening poor old Monkey.

Despite some losses, I ended up hitting the jackpot this week, mainly because of a position I took in Apple that could not have worked out better. Just thinking about it makes me froth at the mouth, so I'll try and sober up and get the unsexy stuff out of the way first.

I said goodbye to my short position in SanDisk. Monday morning saw it surpass resistance at $44, triggering my stop-loss order. The stock went below $41 last week, so the swift turnaround is disappointing, but I'm satisfied with my handling. I made a few quid, albeit not as much as I'd hoped for, and followed my rules all the way. I gave the stock room to move whilst protecting the bulk of my profits - that's all you can do. The stock has since motored on past $46.

Despite releasing an upbeat trading statement, CRH has been drifting south over the last week. Since hitting an all-time high of Euro31.89, profit-taking has set in and the stock is just above its 20day moving average at Euro30.30. Regular readers may recall that CRH was recommended to me last November by a friend who insisted the stock was headed to the moon. He's still harping on about how the stock is really worth Euro40, but it's hardly likely in the short-term.

Underneath Euro30 and I'm out.

Have to protect those profits, not sit around hoping.

Elan continues to look awful - if you're long. I'm short, however, so I was busy counting the coppers as the stock tumbled on Monday. I sold another quarter of my position at $13.20, an area of possible technical support.

None was forthcoming.

Instead, it kept going down, hitting a low of $12.75 before recovering somewhat. I've been bearish on Elan for some time now, but the last thing I expected was such a descent. Mind you, I'm not complaining - Elan's slide has contributed over Euro2700 to the trading coffers since I went short at $14.75.

The Elan trade had been my most profitable since beginning this column. The last thing I expected was to experience bigger profits still within a matter of days.

But experience I did.

Monday morning saw me cover my short position in Apple at $86. The annual Macworld conference was taking place on Tuesday and there was no way I was going to be short heading into a conference where the muchhyped iPhone was to be launched. In fact, I was sorely tempted to go long. By the same token, there was a possibility the stock would go nowhere - everyone was expecting an announcement.

I decided to put in an order to buy on a break of $86.67 (the stock's two-week high). If the share price didn't react, my order would not be filled and I would have lost nothing.

Tuesday morning saw my order promptly filled. The stock continued to gain until a sell-off around lunchtime after reports that CEO Steve Jobs had told the conference that "we're only talking about the mac today". A whole host of traders were, like me, in this to hear about the iPhone.

This was not what we wanted. The stock dropped $2.50 in a five-minute period and I came within 30 cents of being stopped out before before it reversed upwards once more. Twenty minutes after Jobs's initial mischievous comment came the announcement - Apple was launching its iPhone.

The stock took off. Within an hour, it had climbed $7. I offloaded half of my position at $92. Resistance in the form of all-time highs were just ahead at $93, so that was the obvious option. Besides, I was quaking in my boots. I had garnered almost Euro2000 in under an hour - an hour - and was itching to book some profits. I don't ever recall such a rush. I was floating.

The strength continued into the close, with Apple touching $93. After the market close, all the chatter continued to be about the iPhone. I'm no techie, but everyone seemed gripped.

Not surprisingly, the excitement continued into Wednesday, with the stock roaring up to $97: a profit of almost Euro3000 in two days.

I'm pleased.

For those of you more interested in the iPhone than my balance, the details include: phone, web applications, touch-screen iPod, camera, iTunes TV and film access. It's black, has a 3.5inch screen, is bigger than an iPod but thinner than existing smart phones, comes in 4GB and 8 GB versions which will retail at $499 and $599 respectively, will be available from June in the US and from October in Europe and is expected to sell 5 million units this year.

I'm hoping the momentum will continue for a few more days yet before quarterly results are announced.

In the meantime, my max loss per trade is increasing to Euro800. The daily swings in my balance have been getting progressively bigger. I've had a stunning start to 2007 - Euro5000 in two weeks - but the reality is a few quick losses would be expensive, so I'm trying not to be too gung-ho.

Still, I have to smile when I think of the latest Apple slogan; Welcome to 2007.

Indeed.




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