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Time to look over the Wall
Ronan O'Brien



Will Hutton argues China isn't the coming superpower many claim, and needs western support to overcome communism's damage The Writing on the Wall: China and the West in the 21st Century By Will Hutton Little Brown

IN AN era which has sought to divorce the two elements of political economy from each other, Will Hutton is a breath of fresh air. He writes about an economics influenced by politics which are not determined by the unseen hand of "the market."

He is also unique as a social commentator of the left. His writing, going back to his critique of Thatcherism, The State We're In, is devoid of the fatalism of postcommunist and post-social democratic corporatist politics.

Will Hutton sees potential where others see none. He aligns the left within a progressive strand termed "enlightenment values" which is responsible for western economic and social progress over the last two centuries.

He is not a writer who could easily have emanated from the Irish socialist or republican tradition. He is an unapologetic globaliser and free trader, a position with some historic support in the British left, but which the more isolationist left in his country has shunned. And as free trade and an open economy have been at the heart of the Irish economic revolution, it is not surprising that the Irish left can see it as asmuch of a challenge as an opportunity.

Hutton positions this economic openness firmly in the centre-left tradition. FDR's renunciation of Hooverite protectionism is cited positively and the post-war settlement, financed by US capital, remains a development model to be rescued from both US neo-conservatism and its labour movement equally.

The US, despite its record trade deficits, has been a winner from globalisation while the greatest threat to world prosperity and security is revived US protectionism and the continuation of George W Bush's "go it alone" policy. As Toby Ziegler put it in The West Wing, "Free trade stops wars!"

It should be clear by now that this is not simply a book about China, though the history of that country and its recent economic development is dealt with extensively. Rather, the book is a response to those who are fatalistic about the west's capacity to compete with China. The author argues that the biggest mistake the west could make would be to close its doors to Chinese goods, and the global trading system (albeit one in need of serious reform) presided over by the WTO and the World Bank.

Such a response could provoke a dangerous political crisis in China.

The China presented in this book is one with greater economic difficulties than usually allowed.

At its heart is Hutton's argument that sustained economic growth into the future is incompatible with the continued hegemony of the Chinese Communist Party. In some of the most interesting sections of the book, Hutton details the continued control exercised by the Party in all aspects of the Chinese economy, including over those areas seemingly opened to private sector involvement.

This contradiction, Hutton believes, puts a ceiling on China's development under its current growth model.

To sustain this argument he cites low and declining productivity, a dearth of internal capital sources, China's incapacity to develop any global brands and dependence on an undervalued currency.

China's political structure does not and cannot facilitate the development of the 'enlightenment values' - a free press, independent courts, the modern company model - that sustain the higher productivity delivered by western economies.

Where that might leave the Islamic world is not touched upon here.

Hutton's conclusion that the surest way that the west can assist China's inevitable path to a system based on enlightenment values and democracy is continued engagement and support.

To do that though the west needs to reaffirm its commitment to those same values internally and externally.

And though it's not stated directly, that requires a Republican defeat at the next US presidential election.

Ronan O'Brien is a former Labour party advisor




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