FINE Gael is in trouble if the results of today's opinion poll are borne out on general election day. The party's support is not just depressingly low but at 22% is one percentage point below the disastrous showing at the 2002 general election which triggered a Dáil seat-loss meltdown. Fine Gael's rating fell from 26% to 20% in the two Sunday Tribune/Millward Brown IMS polls last autumn.

Today's poll shows that the party has clawed back two percentage points since October last but current support levels are still not strong enough to deliver government at the forthcoming general election.

If Irish voters were all farmers then Fine Gael would be a shoo-in at the next election. Some 44% of farmers back Fine Gael, the only category where the party beats Fianna Fáil, which has 40% support among the farming community. But unfortunately for Fine Gael rural voters and farmers do not turn election results anymore.

The outcome of today's opinion poll shows that there is real hostility to Fine Gael in urban areas, while the affluent AB grouping is completely turned off by Enda Kenny's party. Dublin remains a particular problem. Support for the party stands at 16% in the capital, keeping it behind both Fianna Fáil (31%) and Labour (19%), with the Green Party at 14% even running it close for that third-place position.

Gay Mitchell's decision to retire from national politics was a body blow at the end of 2006. Fine Gael now faces into the 2007 general election with just two sitting TDs, Richard Bruton and Olivia Mitchell, in the capital.

Adding to this number, however, will be difficult if today's opinion poll results are repeated on election day.

There will be no happy outcome for candidates like Brody Sweeney in Dublin North East, Senator Brian Hayes in Dublin South West and Lucinda Creighton in Dublin South East.

The low level of Fine Gael support may well be correlated to the negative perception of its party leader.

Satisfaction with how Kenny is doing his job is at 39% - the lowest score of the six main party leaders. His satisfaction ratings improve among older voters. He hits a 43% level among those over 65 years.

He also does well with those in rural areas with a 45% approval rating in Connacht/Ulster. But, crucially for Fine Gael, Kenny's satisfaction ratings collapse in urban areas, among younger voters and also with affluent AB voters.

Only 34% of poll respondents in Dublin are satisfied with how Kenny is doing his job while only 30% of AB voters back his performance. A significant 50% say they are dissatisfied with how he is performing. Overall, Kenny's satisfaction ratings fell last autumn while his dissatisfaction increased, and there has been no shift in the public's opinion in the last three months.

The troubles for Fine Gael and its leader may offer a real opportunity for Labour to assume a greater lead role in an alternative coalition. Fine Gael and Labour will run a joint general election campaign but there has been a noticeable coolness from Rabbitte's party towards Fine Gael since the autumn.

The warm embrace for the cameras as the two party leaders attended each other's September think-in has not been evident for some time.

Labour's vote has seesawed in a series of Sunday Tribune/IMS Millward Brown polls since 2002. In this latest survey, the party's support is back at 12% following a two percentage point decline between September and October last. Labour's support is evenly spread across the various age and socialclass groupings.

However, the party is strong in Dublin and Pat Rabbitte's solid satisfaction ratings will give some in Labour hope that the lift-off experienced in the weeks before the 1992 general election may be about to repeat itself. Rabbitte's national satisfaction rating stands at 47%, up two percentage points since the previous poll. Interestingly, however, his satisfaction ratings are higher among the older age groupings - 55% in the 50-64 age group and 51% in the 65 and over age category.

A higher proportion of people in these age groupings will vote on polling day which may be an indication, with Labour particularly in mind, of some potential twists and turns before the 2007 general election is concluded.