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Contrasting results for different shades of green
Shane Coleman Political Correspondent



SUPPORT for Sinn Féin has dropped to its lowest level since the last general election, the Sunday Tribune/Millward Brown IMS poll shows.

At 7%, Sinn Féin is down a percentage point from October and three points from the 10% it enjoyed just over two years ago. At this level, the party will struggle to build substantially on its 2002 general election performance when it won five seats. Predictions a couple of years back of sweeping gains in the next election now seem wide of the mark.

Of most concern to Sinn Féin will be the party's 6% level of support in Dublin, which compares to the 9% it won in the capital in 2002. While regional figures should be treated with some caution because of the smaller numbers involved, it does suggest that Sinn Féin will be up against it to add to its two existing seats in the capital. The party has particularly identified Dublin North East, Dublin North West and especially Dublin Central as three of its prime targets.

Its support level of 11% in Connacht/Ulster is more encouraging for Sinn Féin and suggests the party can win at least one of the two seats it has targeted between Donegal South West and Donegal North East.

There was also much better news for Sinn Féin party president Gerry Adams, whose satisfaction rating jumped by a substantial seven points to 52%. That rating is second only to Taoiseach Bertie Ahern, and Adams has a much lower dissatisfaction rating than Ahern. Approval ratings for Adams are spread fairly evenly across all age groups and social classes, although he is considerably more popular in Connacht/Ulster (with an approval rating of 64%) than in Dublin (45%).

It was another solid poll result for the Green Party, although its support levels slipped by a point to 5% from October. The best news for the party came in Dublin where the poll shows the Greens at 14% and closing on Fine Gael.

That is well up on the 8% the party got in 2002 and - notwithstanding the usual caveats about the smaller numbers involved when assessing the regions - it suggests that all five of the party's TDs in the capital are well placed to hold their seats and that the Greens have a real chance of making a gain in Dublin Central with Patricia McKenna.

Against that, the 1% the party attracted in Connacht/ Ulster and the 4% in Leinster means that the Greens will have their work cut out to win seats in target constituencies Galway West, Carlow-Kilkenny and Wicklow.

Independents and other parties continue to hold their support levels of 10%, close to the 11% they attracted in the 2002 general election, which returned 14 deputies. Support for independents/others in Dublin remains at 7% from the last poll, which is down from the 9.5% of the vote they attracted in 2002. Their support in Connacht/Ulster at 11% in October and 7% in the current poll is considerably down on the near 16% that independents/others attracted in the 2002 general election.




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