The latest instalment in the drama of the Labour Party's continuing uncertain attitude to Fianna Fáil as a potential coalition partner can be traced back to December 2001. Pat Rabbitte - then a frontbench spokesman - went on RT�? radio. He was asked about the party's electoral strategy, which was to pursue an independent position at the 2002 general election with no preelection alliance with any other party. The strategy had been sponsored by then leader Ruairi Quinn and backed by a six-to-one majority at a Labour party conference. There was, however, a strong preference for government with Fine Gael and the Greens over entering a coalition arrangement with Fianna Fáil. A deal with Bertie Ahern's party would be a last resort. As Quinn bluntly told one party gathering, their job was to "get the bastards out".

But Rabbitte was unhappy with the less than emphatic rejection of Fianna Fáil. In the radio interview, he delivered a dramatic response. He confirmed he would not serve in any post-election Fianna Fáil-Labour coalition. The Dublin South West TD would turn down an offer of a senior or a junior ministerial position. The intervention caused considerable anger with Quinn as it opened up a public debate about Labour's attitude to Fianna Fáil.

In the end, the issue never came to a head, as Fianna Fáil and the PDs had sufficient parliamentary numbers to agree a second term in office after the 2002 general election. Within a few months, Rabbitte replaced Quinn as Labour party leader. While Rabbitte's supporters in that election traded on his anti-Fianna Fáilism, Rabbitte himself did not explicitly rule out coalition with Fianna Fáil. He merely stated that his objective was to remove Bertie Ahern's party from office.

'Perennial problem' for Labour Rabbitte's election manifesto - sent to almost 4,000 voters in the party's leadership contest - signalled the change. "The choice must be to strengthen the Labour Party rather than engaging as a weak force in cultivating alliances with even weaker political forces, " the document said. It added that the way back to power would involve "effective, full-blooded opposition to this government. To coalesce or not, and with whom:

these are practical tactical questions. They arise - or do not - after an election."

In fact, Rabbitte's position vis-a-vis Fianna Fáil has never been as strident as it was in the pre-2002 general election period. Nevertheless, from the early stages of his leadership, he clearly signalled a preference for entering the subsequent general election in an alliance with Fine Gael. The independent stance of 2002 was abandoned but, interestingly, a vagueness remained in relation to Fianna Fáil in a post-election situation where the numbers with Fine Gael did not add up.

When Labour Youth subsequently overwhelmingly rejected his electoral strategy in November 2004, Rabbitte admitted: "I accept that there can be two views and always have been about electoral strategy. It has been a perennial problem for Labour." One speaker in that debate summed up the party's options - to seek coalition with Fianna Fáil, to seek coalition with Fine Gael or to tell them both to get stuffed.

Rabbitte moved to forge the self-styled alternative with Enda Kenny's Fine Gael. The Green Party was welcome if it wished to participate. A series of policy documents were published, although significant differences between the two main opposition parties have not been closed. Despite the deal with Fine Gael, compared with his December 2001 position, Rabbitte had shifted position. Whereas previously, he said he would not serve in government involving Fianna Fáil, in recent times he has merely repeated that he doesn't want to be in the position of entering government with Fianna Fáil. Early last year, the Labour leader said: "To put Fianna Fáil back into power after the next election would be bad for the Labour party and bad for the country." But the 'I would not serve' line was no longer part of Rabbitte's proclamations.

The dilution in his attitude was always going to receive greater attention as the election contest approached. Moreover, the latest opinion poll findings showing Fine Gael in a weak electoral position must make many around Rabbitte ponder the possible post-election scenario in which only Fianna Fáil and Labour could offer the country a stable government.

The most recent uproar about post-election plans was promptd by a TV3 interview last month. When asked if he would resign as party leader if Labour and Fianna Fáil emerged as the only stable coalition partnership after the general election, Rabbitte said: "I've no intention of resigning the leadership." He added, "I'm interested in winning the maximum number of seats for the Labour Party between now and polling day? what happens after the election is another day's work but I haven't changed my convictions about it."

The answer appeared to be opening up wriggle room on the Fianna Fáil issue. But less than 24 hours later Rabbitte was clarifying. "I thought I made plain yesterday and I think I said it four times, that I have not changed my convictions on the matter. I have no intention, no intention, of leading Labour into government with Fianna Fáil and every intention of persuading the Irish people to change this government, and that means change the two parties."

The scenario took another twist when the same question was posed on RT�?'s Questions and Answers earlier this month. After much verbal twisting and turning, Rabbitte said: "I will not put Fianna Fáil back into government?". But the following weekend, he was offering another answer which seemed to leave open the Fianna Fáil option. "The Labour party can't decide after any election to go into government without a motion to annual conference from the leader, and I have no intention of putting such a motion [proposing coalition with FF], unless I think the circumstances are right."

But then another variation on the electoral strategy theme appeared in a newspaper interview at the start of last week when the Labour leader stated: "I have no intention of convening a special conference to recommend going into government with FF." The ambiguities and variation in the answers given to the same questions generated considerable confusion. Matters were not helped with another newspaper and another radio interview towards the end of last week.

'Debating society' Rabbitte's party is split on the Fianna Fáil question. There is a hardcore of members who oppose Fianna Fáil in all circumstances. There are also those who fear that by leaving open the possibility of a post-election deal with Fianna Fáil, Labour place a doubt over its current deal to form an alternative with Fine Gael. The mess of the last week may, however, end up achieving what the anti-Fianna Fáil wing in Labour set out to achieve. Given the divisions in Labour on the matter, a serious question mark has to be placed over the stability of a potential Fianna Fáil/Labour alliance. They would have a secure Dáil majority, but every row could be turned into a controversy and every difference of opinion into a crisis over the coalition's future.

The debate of the last week has largely centred on personality and different views of the various party histories, not a debate concentrating on policy. It has been energy-sapping and distracting.

Differing answers to hypothetical questions have clearly shown a Labour leader uncertain about his course of action should the voters reject his deal with Fine Gael.

During the 2002 Labour leadership contest, when talking about the Fianna Fáil question, Brendan Howlin said: "I want to be involved in shaping Ireland, not in a debating society." If the numbers stack up for government with Ahern, Rabbitte will face that dilemma. He will be 58 in May. He's likely to only get a single shot at being Tánaiste. If a programme for government can be agreed, he's likely to go to a conference of his party members seeking their endorsement. In the national interest, of course.

COALITION: COMBINATIONS & PERMUTATIONS

Fianna Fáil and the PDs: Very good chance of a third term based on last weekend's Sunday Tribune opinion poll.

FF and the PDs with support of independent TDs: Worked from 1997 to 2002.

FF, the PDs and the Greens: Not as unlikely an alliance as it sounds.

FF and Labour: Will have a Dáil majority but would the arrangement guarantee political stability?

FG, Labour and the Greens: Will need plenty of luck but with some independents on side could work.

FF and Sinn Féin: Not just yet but in time.

FF and FG: The Grand Coalition. A similar arrangement works in Germany at the moment and there are even fewer differences between the two parties here.

History says no, but then history can always be rewritten.

This leader's not for turning . . . or is he?

"I will not serve [as a minister in a Fianna Fáil/Labour coalition]."

December 2001

"To coalesce or not, and with whom: these are practical tactical questions. They arise - or do not - after an election."

September 2002

"Then it doesn't matter who it's in government with, if it has that clout."

November 2002, when saying Labour needed "critical mass" before participating in government.

"You can take it that the objective of the party is to get Fianna Fáil out of government, that it's not to go into government with Fianna Fáil." February 2003

"We must present the Irish electorate with an alternative at the next general election and to have that government returned to office." November 2004

"To put Fianna Fáil back into power after the next election would be bad for the Labour party and bad for the country."

February 2006

"I'm interested in winning the maximum number of seats for the Labour Party between now and polling day? what happens after the election is another day's work, but I haven't changed my convictions about it." 10 December 2006

"I have no intention, no intention, of leading Labour into government with Fianna Fáil?" 11 December 2006

"I will not put Fianna Fáil back into government?" 8 January 2007

"The Labour party can't decide after any election to go into government without a motion to annual conference from the leader, and I have no intention of putting such a motion [proposing coalition with FF], unless I think the circumstances are right." 14 January 2007

"I have no intention of convening a special conference to recommend going into government with Fianna Fáil." 15 January 2007

"I don't think it is reasonable to ask me to respond to a number of 'what ifs' after the election. I think all I can say about it is that I have no intention of putting Fianna Fáil back into government, none at all, and I really don't think it is reasonable to ask me to say more than that, that is my settled position."

18 January 2007