SINN Féin members will today make one of the most important decisions in the party's long and turbulent history.

But while the decision on policing could pave the way for Sinn Féin to enter government in the North, the once widely predicted forecasts of a major electoral breakthrough south of the border now seem overly optimistic.

At just 7% in the most recent Sunday Tribune/Millward Brown IMS poll, the party has failed to substantially build on its 2002 general election performance, when it won five Dáil seats.

So what are the party's chances in its 15 target constituencies in May's general election?

1. Cavan-Monaghan. An absolute sure thing that Caoimhghín �?Caoláin will hold the seat - only the party's relative weakness in Cavan is stopping it from challenging for a second.

2. Dublin South-West. Again very hard not to see Seán Crowe holding the seat he won when topping the poll in 2002.

3. Dublin South-Central. There was a view that Aengus �? Snodaigh might have difficulties retaining his seat, but he looked comfortable even before the decision of Fine Gael's Gay Mitchell not to stand.

4. Louth. If there is a backlash among Sinn Féin supporters about the policing decision, Louth may prove one of the few constituencies south of the border that could be affected. Arthur Morgan took a seat here for the party at the expense of Labour in 2002. His seat may not be as safe as is widely assumed, but he should be OK.

5. Kerry North. Of the party's five TDs, Martin Ferris looks the most vulnerable. Terry O'Brien is making a big push to regain the traditional Labour seat here, lost by Dick Spring in 2002, and will prove to be a formidable opponent. It's a case of any three from four.

That said, it's hard to imagine that there isn't a Fianna Fáil seat here, while FG's Jimmy Deenihan should hold on. That leaves a real struggle between Ferris and O'Brien for the final seat and, at the moment, O'Brien is the slight favourite.

6. Dublin Central. Nicky Kehoe missed out by just 79 votes in 2002 so this is Sinn Féin's number-one target seat and looked a banker when the party parachuted in high-profile MEP Mary Lou McDonald to stand. But at just 6% in Dublin in the last Sunday Tribune/Millward Brown IMS poll, this seat no longer looks a certainty, particularly if Bertie Ahern manages his vote better this time. With the Greens at 14% in the capital, Patricia McKenna will be a formidable opponent.

7. Donegal North-East. Padraig Mac Lochlainn has a lower national profile than Donegal South West's Pearse Doherty, but is probably Sinn Féin's best hope of a gain, particularly now that the Blaneys have returned to the FF fold. Sinn Féin will win a seat here.

8. Donegal South-West. Most analysts are calling this as a gain for the highly rated Pearse Doherty of Sinn Féin, but if he is to win a seat it will have to be at the expense of ministers Coughlan or Gallagher or of Fine Gael, which has never failed to win a seat here.

9. Dublin North-West. Probably was seen as the party's number two target after Dessie Ellis came close in 2002, but with the party struggling in Dublin, the three incumbent TDs will be extremely difficult to oust. Sinn Féin may fall just short again.

10. Dublin North-East. After a strong performance in the local elections here, Larry O'Toole certainly has a chance. But the party has stalled since then and may struggle to attract enough transfers to win in a three-seater.

11. Dublin Mid-West. Again, looked like a real target after the local elections, particularly when it is increasing to a four-seater, but Clondalkin poll-topper in that election, Shane O'Connor, is not on the ticket. The three incumbent TDs look safe and it's hard to see SF coming out ahead of Fine Gael and Labour for the fourth seat.

12. Cork North-Central. A big boost for the party with the decision of Jonathan O'Brien, a polltopper in the local elections, to stand after pulling out of the race last October. However, the reduction of the constituency from five seats to four means the odds are firmly against him.

13. Wexford. A good candidate in John Dwyer and a five-seat constituency are the positives, but lack of transfers are likely to tell against the party.

14. Waterford. Another good candidate in David Cullinane, but the election after next may be a more realistic hope.

15. Meath West. If Meath had remained a five-seater, Joe Reilly would be in with a real chance of a seat but very difficult to see a gain for the party now that the county has been divided into two threeseaters.