The script for today's AIG Hurdle may seem set - a Brave Inca win - but enjoy it while it lasts, as this is a true golden era
BIG deal. There's another Grade One Hurdle race at Leopardstown this afternoon and most of the usual cast of characters are on stage again.
Ho hum. This whole hurdling thing is becoming as predictable as a cheap soap opera and the same old story lines just seem to come around again and again.
In fact it's nearly reached the point where everybody knows what's going to happen in advance and are wondering why they should even bother watching at all. This time it is the turn of AIG Europe to stump up the shekels and here is how their money will be spent.
When the tape goes up, Jazz Messenger and Asian Maze will set off at a brisk gallop and will stay at the head of affairs until the pace falters approaching the third last hurdle, where they will be joined and passed by Hardy Eustace. Hardy is a tough old bugger who stays well, and his sustained injection of pace will have half the field in trouble by the time they reach the entrance to the straight.
Iktitaf and Mac's Joy will be among the few good enough to stay in touch, and Brave Inca, who looked to be beaten after half a mile, will join the fray on the outside under a strong ride from AP McCoy.
By the time they jump the last, Conor O'Dwyer will be working hard on Hardy Eustace and McCoy will be edging Brave Inca over closer to his rivals to make sure that he understands that there is a battle underway.
Then, just as the Wexford lionheart starts to assert himself, Barry Geraghty will unleash Mac's Joy wide on the outside with a burst of searing acceleration that takes him briefly into the lead. Brave Inca will notice him just in time, mutter whatever is the equine equivalent of "don't even think about it, pal" and grind past him to win by three parts of a length. Iktitaf, who had breezed into the straight with Timmy Murphy's backside high enough to create a safety hazard for the helicopters taking off from the in-field golf course, will have by then cried enough and fade to finish fourth.
The spectators will roar their approval even though they know, like the crowd at a Spanish bullfight, that the ultimate outcome is predestined. Ireland's favourite horse will be given a rapturous reception when he returns to unsaddle and his trainer, Colm Murphy, will justifiably puff up with pride as he explains to Tracey Piggott how his little warrior has never been better and that he is very much the one they all have to beat at Cheltenham in six weeks time.
The bookies representatives will rush to cut his price for the Champion Hurdle and make a mental note to track down the eejits that were thick enough to make Detroit City the winter favourite and summarily fire them. Every thing is inevitable and predictable. It happens nearly every time they race these days. Why bother watching?
But in truth, that might not be the wisest thing to do.
There is the obvious possibility that all of the above will prove to be utterly wrong and it will be worth it to be there to see what actually unfolds.
Besides, the rest of the card is attractive and competitive in its own right anyway. There is also one hugely compelling and incontrovertible reason to watch this race . The 'Joni Mitchell' factor.
In her classic dirge of sixties anguish, 'Big Yellow Taxi', Joni moaned that "Don't it always seem to go, you don't know what you got till it's gone, they paved paradise and put up a parking lot." The difference now is that most Irish National Hunt supporters have known for some time now what exactly they got - the greatest single generation of two-mile hurdlers since wealthy landowners first jumped their horses over hedges while chasing each other between church steeples a couple of hundred years ago.
The golden generation consists of three distinctive types, each comparable in ways to a rugby team. There's the forwards, tough bastards who'll grind and push and shove all day long. Think Hardy Eustace, Brave Inca and Asian Maze. One of the spine-tingling racing moments in recent years was the intake of breath when the roar of expectation that exploded from the Cheltenham stands when Brave Inca took on Hardy Eustace at the top of the hill in last year's Champion Hurdle. The battle between these two sluggers down the hill was as memorable as Ali and Frazier in Manila, but thankfully not as bloody.
Type two are the backs.
These have more panache in their style of racing, and Mac's Joy, Harchibald and Iktitaf are the Dorse, Drico and Shaggy of this generation. Second in the last two Champion Hurdles under brilliantly executed rides, neither Harchibald nor Macs Joy have yet proved good enough to beat the tough guys when it really mattered and the jury is still out on Iktitaf.
The third type are the Wannabees, newly promoted from the under-19s and eagerly trying to break into the first team. These include the injured but potentially brilliant Feathard Lady, and the two novices, Hide the Evidence and the four-year-old mare Lounas. The sportingly ambitious entries of these two are another intriguing back story in today's race.
Between them this group of hurdlers have won 40 graded races and share an average rating well into the 160s.
There have been better individual Irish hurdlers but Istabraq and Hattons Grace never had to compete in such an unrelenting cauldron of excellence, time after time after time. Poor old Brave Inca hasn't had a 'gimme' since he won a handicap hurdle off a rating of 95 over four years ago.
The recent upswing in fortune has meant the Irish have won six of the last 10 Champion Hurdles, having collected none in the preceding dozen years, and have filled seven of the nine available places in the last three years.
There are however some noises coming from the other side of the Irish Sea that suggest that the natives are getting restless and want their championship back. Two really good English hurdlers have emerged this year in Black Jack Ketchum - despite his hiccup yesterday - and Detroit City. Black Jack looks to be a long-distance machine and unlikely to trouble the speedsters and although Detroit City looks to be a serious threat, he has a long way to go to justify some of the hype that surrounds him.
So there are, after all, some sound reasons to pay attention to events at Leopardstown this afternoon, and some new questions to be answered. Are the tough guys still tough, or can the novices prove that they are ready to continue and sustain a dynasty?
But the best reason to be there is, of course, the Joni factor. So why not hop on the Luas, and enjoy it while you still can. Better still, hire a big yellow taxi and travel out in style. Someday all this will end, and "what we know we got will be gone". Someday this paradise will be paved over.
THE GOLDEN GENERATION Horse Trainer Age Rating Grade Race Wins Brave Inca Colm Murphy 9 167 10 Mac's Joy Jessica Harrington 8 167 4 Hardy Eustace Dessie Hughes 10 165 7 Harchibald Noel Meade 8 165 5 Iktithaf Noel Meade 6 164 4 Jazz Messenger Noel Meade 7 159 1 Asian Maze Tom Mullins 8 158 5 Feathered Lady Colm Murphy 7 158 1 Hide The Evidence Jessica Harrington 6 NA 1 Lounaos Eoin Grif"n 4 NA 1
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