PARALYSIS by analysis is largely a business term, but it has its rugby applications.
Like over the past two weekends, where Munster, it would seem, have spent more time analysing what the opposition do, and tailoring their game to deal with that, than concentrating on playing to their own strengths.
The result? One tight victory, one wholly deserved defeat and a nasty little away quarter-final against Llanelli at the end of March. To paraphrase, they over analysed and were paralysed.
Still, the days of complete ignorance of the opposition are long gone and over the next couple of weeks, and indeed over the past couple of months, the video analysts of the respective Six Nations sides will pour over footage of their five opponents, searching for a chink of light, any weakness whatsoever, that exposes itself on screen. It may only be the slightest of things that are noticed - the tendency for one particular defender to rush on sight of the ball, the preference of an individual to constantly step off the one foot while in possession - but any potential weakness is jotted down, noted and regurgitated at team meetings. It's how modern rugby works and even the IRB, the sport's governing body, have got in on the act.
They've produced a series of "Statistical Review and Match Analysis" documents under the direction of Corris Thomas, with the latest offering casting a train-spotters' glance over the 2006 Six Nations Championships. It certainly makes for interesting reading.
From an Irish point of view, the change in Eddie O'Sullivan's coaching philosophy can be viewed in vivid technicolour. From the team that kicked the ball the most in the 2005 Championship, with an average of 34 per game, Ireland dropped to the second lowest kicking team behind England in 2006, with an average of 28.
That change in mindset was also evident in the passing statistics, where Ireland went from the lowest passing team in 2005, with an average of 106 per game, to the highest passing team in 2006 with an average of 161. Not only that, in that manic game against France in the Stade de France in February of last year, Ireland managed 153 passes in that frenzied second half, an all time record for 40 minutes of Six Nations rugby.
If that doesn't represent catch-up rugby, we don't know what does. The one passing statistic that didn't change between 2005 and 2006, even though much of Ireland's play did, was the number made by the Irish pack. Just 12 per cent of all Irish passes last season were made by their forwards, a figure that puts them bottom of the table with Italy. There's no surprise that Wales, with 23 per cent, are the leaders in that particular field but the clear lesson for the opposition is that if you have an Irish forward running at you, get ready for the contact.
In terms of scoring, there was a bit of a surprise in Ireland's 2006 statistics, particularly when it appeared, to the naked eye at the least, that they took more risks than usual over the course of the Championship. In 2005, Ireland scored a try for every 6mins 42secs of possession, but in 2006 that increased dramatically to 8mins 07secs.
These statistics appear to point to an underperforming Irish attack but there's another viable explanation. Ireland, with 17 penalties converted, accumulated more three pointers than any other team, which suggests that while they have changed their style of play on the park to some degree, a strong streak of conservatism still runs through their decision making, keeping Ronan O'Gara busy.
So while we might be expecting to see Ireland score a few more tries this season, now that they're a bit further down the road with their "new" style, one thing that mightn't change is their tendency to go behind early on.
If you're a betting man or woman, it's interesting to note that seven tries of Ireland's total of 10 conceded last season came in the first half, while nine of their 12 tries scored came in the second period. It may be an idea to lay your bets accordingly.
With that information under your hat, here's another few titbits to keep you going. Last season, 70 per cent of matches were won by the team scoring the most tries, no team won a match by scoring less tries than their opponents, the overall dropgoal success rate was just 31 per cent, 26 per cent of all tries were scored under the posts, and the average length of a match was 91mins 34secs.
Paralysis by analysis? It can happen just by reading.
|