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Analysts divided over Ryanair numbers
Conor Brophy



RYANAIR is expected to report turnover of more than Euro450m tomorrow when it releases interim results covering the final quarter of last year.

Analysts' forecasts vary significantly ahead of tomorrow's announcement.

Merrion's John Mattimoe is expecting the low cost carrier to deliver operating profit of Euro34m on turnover of Euro456m.

NCB's John Sheehan, though, has a more conservative view.

He is forecasting turnover of Euro386m.

According to a poll of aviation analysts conducted by news service Bloomberg, meanwhile, Ryanair will deliver operating profit of Euro30m on turnover of Euro462m, down from the Euro49m it generated last year on turnover of just Euro371m.

The drop in profitability is primarily the result of increased fuel costs compared with the final quarter of 2005.

Merrion's Mattimoe said he would be looking for an update on yields, the average return the company generates for each seat sold, and fuel hedging.

Declining oil prices over the last three months have eased the pressure on airlines but the need to lock in prices at a favourable level remains.

Ryanair currently has 15% of its 2007 fuel requirements hedged at a cost of 10% lower than prevailing oil prices but is unhedged for the period between April and September, meaning it is completely exposed to fluctuations in the market.

Both investors and analysts will be seeking clarity on this issue tomorrow. NCB's Sheehan is also seeking an update on plans to return some capital to shareholders by way of a one-off dividend. Such an distribution would depend largely on whether the company makes a fresh offer to buy Aer Lingus, however, as it has indicated.




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