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Monkey jittery after Nasdaq's choppy week



READERS probably assume that it's easy to make money when the overall market is making new highs, as the Dow and S&P did last week.

Unfortunately, the Nasdaq tends to be a more crucial determinant of my trading results and it's turned out to be a choppy, irritating week, with my positions rocking back and forth in a pattern that I can't seem to get a handle on. Any trader will tell you that these are the very worst conditions for trading, so I should probably be relieved that my own losses weren't more severe.

The Nasdaq 100 has been all over the place. The bullish bet I made a fortnight ago seemed to be going in my favour before a swift and vicious one-day reversal erased all my gains and then some.

I came close to being stopped out at the end of last week so when Monday gave me a chance to get out near break-even, I took it.

Wednesday saw the bulls come out in force after the Federal Reserve elected to leave interest rates unchanged but I have no regrets that I wasn't long going into that.

The Nasdaq's bipolar behaviour hasn't helped me in gauging Apple's price movements. The stock has been tearing me to bits.

Firstly, I bought in after it cleared resistance at $87.50. After going up a dollar, it turned around and started going south. I came within ten cents of being stopped out, with the stock hitting a low of $84.99 before buyers came to the rescue. Monday saw me take a partial loss, selling at $86.25. I was grateful to get out at this juncture as the chart pattern had taken on a pretty bearish hue.

Looking at the stock's movements, the obvious move was to short on a break of $85. The break came on Wednesday and the intra-day movements seemed to con"rm that the stock was in trouble, with $85 acting as strong resistance on a number of occasions. Unfortunately, the market turned bullish after the Fed meeting and Apple reversed upwards with it. By close of day, it was trading at $85.70 and I was facing yet another loss on this cursed beast.

I'm going to have to watch this one closely. My stop is just above $88, although I may close the position beforehand if the situation demands it. The intermediate term trend remains downward so I'm hopeful that the selling will resume, but it's dif"cult to be con"dent when you're facing into your third consecutive loss on the same stock (the previous week saw me take another partial loss). As it stands, Apple's unpredictable movements have cost me more than Euro 1,000 over the past fortnight.

I closed out what remained of my short in Elan. My position was too small to make much of a difference to my "nances but I continued to devote time to it. In other words, it was an unnecessary distraction, so we parted. If the stock can creep up to the $13 area, I may well get short again.

Monday saw me go short on oil.

The price came up against its 20day moving average and its high point from the previous week, so it was clearly worth a shot. It initially went in my favour, dropping by $2 and allowing me to raise my stop to break-even. Raising my stop turned out to be a good thing as the price went bananas the very next day, charging up by almost 6%.

Irritated that my initial pro"ts had vanished so quickly, I was nevertheless relieved to have got away with a minute loss on this one.

The price is coming up to its 50-day moving average and I may very well get short again at this point. Oil is technically overbought and should pause sooner rather than later.

The one bright spot of the week was provided by eBay. Strong earnings saw the stock rise by over 10% the previous week. Pro"t-taking and a weak Nasdaq saw it fall back to its 50-day moving average at $31.50, where going long was a nobrainer. It's up a dollar since I bought it and I'm hoping for a retest of recent highs at $34, where I would look to take partial pro"ts.

If it does clear this hurdle - $34 is an area of signi"cant technical resistance - it should be good for further gains. I've already raised my stop to the break-even point (just under $31.40). When market conditions are as treacherous as they have been recently, defensive postures such as this are welladvised.

As for the coming weeks, I'm not convinced of the bullish case. The rally of the past six months has been a result of several factors, one of them being that interest rate cuts were becoming increasingly likely.

US economic data has been very strong recently, all but obliterating the case for rate cuts in the near future.

Sure, the market's initial reaction to the Fed announcement was enthusiastic, but I always take the initial reaction with a grain of salt. I wouldn't be surprised to see sentiment switch to the negatives.

Besides, it's hard to see a breakout to new highs in the overall market being sustained when the Nasdaq is lagging. A strong S&P needs a strong Nasdaq.

Despite the recent losing streak, I have no regrets about the above trades. They made sense at the time, at least to monkey. In fact, I'm very pleased that I managed to cut my losses. Last week could have been a lot, lot worse. Sometimes, getting through the dry spells with the minimum of damage is the most you can ask for.

Weekly gain/loss: - Euro950 Overall balance: Euro38,050




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