HERE'S a prediction you can take straight to the bank: One day, Fidel Castro will die. Until that time, the watch over the Cuban dictator's long-expiring body continues.

Last week in the US, it heated up, even without new evidence from Castro's doctors. On Monday, Miami City Commissioner Tomas Regalado suggested that the Orange Bowl stadium in the city be made available, on Castro's death, as a venue for "helping a community celebrate."

Meanwhile, a news conference about security at the Super Bowl in Miami got hung up on how the Magic City might react if Castro died during the big game.

Together, these stories produced the singular notion that the Super Bowl would be doubling as a venue for a celebration of the old revolutionary's death.

Inevitably, however, Castro got the last laugh. Late on Tuesday, Cuban state television released footage of the president-for-life looking stronger than he had during his previous appearance.

Two things are notable in this hiccup of Castro eschatology: It was not motivated by any actual news, and this is not unusual.

So flammable is the atmosphere around the Castro deathwatch that it can ignite spontaneously, at any time. A rumour circulating in late December, for example, held that the ailing leader was already dead and that the Cuban government was merely waiting to make the announcement on New Year's Day as a tiein with the anniversary of the revolution (1 January, 1959).

Google 'Castro is dead' and you'll get more than 62,000 results, going back many years. But whatever you do, don't open the 'Castro is dead' spam; it contains a nasty virus.

"Growing up in Miami, you would always hear these rumours that Fidel had died, " said Juan Carlos Saizarbitoria, co-producer of East of Havana, thought it was going to end with a whimper, and it looks like that's what's happening. | Prominent members of the Cuban exile community are in fact opposing the Orange Bowl celebration plan and the deathwatch in general because they focus too much attention on Castro, who has already devolved his responsibilities onto his brother, Raul. "That he looked healthy in the latest footage has no bearing on the fact that he can't command the country any more, and probably won't be able to come back to full power, " said Ramon Saul Sanchez, leader of the Miami-based Movimiento Democracia. "The focus now should be on Raul and what he's going to do."

That's unlikely to stop wave after wave of rumours about a frozen corpse, Weekend at Bernie's-style trick photography and state secrets that have bypassed the mainstream media and gone straight on to the blogging grapevine. "Listening to Spanish-language radio, people call in with all kinds of theories, " said Frank Calderon, a Miamibased blogger who runs castrodeathwatch. com.

And to this deathwatch game, Castro and his watchers bring generations of emotional commitment. The dictator's death will almost certainly occasion a mass public outpouring in Miami, where residents and elected officials are in the position of people crouched and waiting at a surprise party: Every floor creak sounds like the arrival of the guest of honour.

And the guest, Castro, will retain, probably until his last breath, a genius for working the media and humiliating his enemies - prompting the question:

Did Fidel plan it this way?

"He wouldn't mind causing a little chaos here in Miami, letting people think he died just to cause trouble, " Calderon said. "I have my own theory about why he was out of sight for so long before this new footage. Perhaps there was some kind of loyalty test, to see who would make a move when they thought he was dead."

Tim Cavanaugh is an editorial writer at the Los Angeles Times, where this article first appeared