I was just trying to scrabble together some notion of form for Wales - let's forget about their autumn, because I am forgetting about Ireland's autumn form too. I have to say the one thing worrying me was consistent Welsh standardbearers Llanelli - astonishing form and self-belief in their game. The club is 10 million quid in the red. In the banking world there is an oft-quoted saying 'one million quid in debt you have a problem, 10 million quid in debt the bank have a problem.' The extent of Llanelli's problems are so large the players wouldn't even see it - it's someone else's problem, it's a state of mind. A bit like the speeding fine punter who planks himself sleepless the night before his first day in court, while the millionaire tax fraudster quaffs the '67 Bollinger by the neck the night before his trial. Llanelli are playing like there is no tomorrow - six out of six in Europe. They are not a great rucking side, the reason is there are no breakdowns and the ball is gone before or during the tackle, or flicked from the floor. They were the best team in the pool stages - let's see what sort of a team they are in March/April. I believe the crowd who currently own the Cup aren't keen on giving it up.

So Wales have the best team in the Heineken Cup and, as sure as Doris follows Gladys, they will have the biggest representation - doesn't read that way.

The Scarlet Pimpernels have only three in the starting XV. The Blue Meanies have an extraordinary five, the NeathSwansea Ossie Osbournes have three, the Dragnets two, London Mannequins one and Worcester Sauce one. That is an eclectic mix if there ever was one. Hard to reconcile that team selection on the basis of form. Cardiff, as usual, came nowhere in the pool section, as did Ospreys - someone explain it to me.

A team back-boned by Llanelli players would present a problem. Thank God, Regan King is a Kiwi and Gareth Jenkins, a Llanelli man, chose to pick only three of his clubmen. The real damage done to any Welsh chances were the injuries suffered by their three-quarters.

Tom Shanklin and Gareth Thomas would have made a match of it in midfield as would have Sonny Parker. Shane Williams, so often the blue touch paper for a Welsh counter or revival is gone and so is the power and speed of Mark Jones.

What's left? Chris (Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan) Czekaj and Jamie Robinson, from Cardiff 's porous and disinterested midfield. Hal Luscombe, who was originally picked in the centre, is sidled out to the wing. He sounds like a species of crab, and also plays like one too. I have seen him play several times and he has a tremendous propensity to move sideways to look for space which doesn't exist. James Hook is the victim of the 'good outhalf let's move him to first centre and pray people don't realise you need a completely different skills set to operate there' theory. Quite often outhalves have shifted the ball before their opposite number is even five to seven yards away from them - no pressure - this does not happen at inside centre. Hook made his name deputising for Stephen Jones when he got injured - he played well at outhalf, but that does not mean he will be a good centre. The match-up against D'Arcy is not an even contest - you are way ahead of me, Eddie - this is Ireland's first point of attack.

It's amazing the crap that is channelled out and digested by the masses, from Aertel-Ceefax and press releases from barely rugby articulate fixers, "Wales chose to bulk up and try and expose Ireland up-front" screamed BBC Sport - great aspiration, but how could they try and achieve that with the pack they have picked. The Yetis are conspicuous by their absence.

The Joneses Adam and Duncan have been 'llolipopped' - the theory is Chris Horsman and Gethin Jenkins will give us some cold steel at scrum time. There are on average 18 scrums in a game - going roughly 50/50 on the put-in. I estimate Ireland may be in trouble for two of them, that equates to 15 seconds of play - what happens for the other 79 minutes and 45 seconds? Cast your mind back to the 2005 Lions tour - ask yourself who was playing at loose head for the Lions, and then ask Carl Hayman does he remember who Gethin Jenkins is. Chris Horsman, not to be confused with the four horsemen of the apocalypse (they should injunct if there was any misapprehension). He is a decent scrummager, but he has been around for a long time.

But why doesn't he have 60 caps - because he is useless, that's why.

Ireland's scrum will be solid enough for the purposes of starting the game and giving ball to Torvill and Dean in the centre. Wales's second row is a fairly neutral pairing, they're proficient at most aspects but that's it. They lack bite and aggression, based on their Magners League form you wouldn't pick either.

Cockbain and Sidoli will start when they get fit. Their back row is a nice basic blend featuring a stopper, a runner and a scavenger and will present problems Martin Williams is surviving on his intelligence now as he has lost a huge amount of his edge and presence, but he is still a pain in the arse. His brief all day will be to hang around midfield - it will leave Wales short up front, which they might not be able to afford. Alex Popham and Ryan Jones have enough oomph to break Ireland's first line and disrupt Ireland's offensive offerings with bug on a windscreen tackling, but outside of that their contribution falls into the physical, not the cerebral. That category will be the preserve of Wales's halves.

Wales's only chance of winning this game will be down to how positively Jones and Peel manage to affect their teammates. The pair have been very relaxed this season, meaning that while all hell breaks loose either side of them they still perform their jobs to the best of their ability. Gareth Jenkins performed miracles at Llanelli, but this touch hasn't exactly been repeated since his accession to the Welsh job, he has had a couple of bad results. I suppose a smooth sea never made a skilled mariner, but I think he'll have to wait because Eddie has his number.

I always feel there is a drill to winning away matches. It is the appliance of the non-obvious that gets you there. Eddie might have fooled people into thinking that Ireland's game has changed - we don't kick anymore, we pass. Hmmmmmmm. Away victories are always founded on common sense and discipline. The first half an hour is crucial - you neutralise home support by making it in to a boring game - O'Gara has to punch the ball forward. Kevin Morgan is confident with the ball behind but Luscombe and Borat aren't, that's where that ball will be going, field position, discipline and aggressive defence saps the crowd's enthusiasm and the home team's play.

Butchers' chess for 30 - use Wallace, Leamy and O'Connell off second phase and don't be ambitious just yet. The championship games against Wales always open up and take off after half an hour, the trick is that you have to control the pace of the game when it does.

The mid-section of the game is normally when Ireland begin to attack off set phases. Our two blind-side wingers always make a huge contribution, which is why Horgan is such a huge loss. He always causes serious damage, just think of the number of times his intervention has set up tries. Nobody can stop him on the gain-line. Both wingers have a big role to play. Trimble's physicality is not a bad substitute, himself and Hickie can play good cop/bad cop. Trimble looks for contact, Hickie for space coming in from the blind - one goes for the gate and the other goes for the gap. Wales really don't know what is going to happen in this game, they recognise Ireland are a superior side and quite possibly their only gambit is a hammer and tongs approach. I don't see their pack or their three-quarters being able to trouble Ireland and it will be up to their halves and back row to cobble together some initiative.

If Ireland don't give any encouragement to Wales and keep their discipline, especially in the first half, they will get half a dozen chances and the scoreline will reflect how many they take. I expect Ireland to spark if not sparkle and win easy enough in the end. No fence.