While it's true that Wales are a team in transition, home advantage will ensure they can triumph over Eddie O'Sullivan's Ireland side this afternoon
THE echoes of the 2005 Six Nations Championship have been bellowing about the place this week, all with particular resonance too. In a year that saw Ireland fail to deliver upon strong favouritism, Wales, the dark horses, earned themselves a Grand Slam title by playing some scintillating offload rugby right across their five fixtures.
That they clinched that oh-sorare of rarities at the Millennium Stadium against Ireland, on an afternoon that carried a claustrophobic level of public expectation, not only proved they were a good 12 months ahead of the rest of Europe in their manner of playing the game, but it also showed Mike Ruddock's men were capable of delivering when everybody expected them to. They didn't choke.
The past, though, can often impair judgement and the Six Nations of 2005 will only become relevant after a couple of issues are sorted out in today's game. Like the scrum and lineout. Both areas are going to be crucial this afternoon, particularly if one side can gain a clear victory. In the scrum, the worries about the Ireland front row have only been exacerbated by Leicester's dismantling of Munster two weeks back, and the Welsh selection of the more dynamic propping duo of Gethin Jenkins and Chris Horsman, ahead of Adam and Duncan Jones, is a clear statement that the home side plan to have a good go at Marcus Horan, Rory Best and John Hayes. But, as we've said before, the much maligned Irish front row have always found a way of surviving under pressure and they're capable of doing at least that again today.
As for the lineout, Ireland aren't quite the dominant force they were out of touch back around the 2004 and 2005 seasons but it's a strange element of the game. Lineouts are probably the most analysed part of any team's make-up and it would appear Ireland's operation, despite regular variations, has been seriously disrupted by the work of video analysts around the globe. But, as Niall O'Donovan will tell you, the cracking of an opposition lineout is a cyclical thing and the feeling is that a general freshening up of the Irish version over the past couple of weeks should make it something of a mystery once more. At the very least, the inclusion of Simon Easterby should give Rory Best a few more options with which to work with.
Wales themselves have a halfdecent operation themselves, both Ian Gough and Alun Wyn Jones are superb lineout operators, but it still should be an area from which Ireland get plenty of clean possession.
Even if it is only off their own ball.
The battle at the contact area will also intrigue. With their back row imitators in the centre - are there any backs in the world as good as Gordon D'Arcy and Brian O'Driscoll at snaffling ball on the floor? - Ireland also possess a genuine back row, lest we forget, capable of causing trouble at the breakdown, particularly in the physical stakes. What they do lack, however, and what Wales have in the shape of Martin Williams at open side, is a ground hog. But as the Welsh camp have been pointing out rather mischievously this week, Easterby is as good as anyone at slowing down ball on the floor and that could well negate Williams's influence. It will also be interesting to note whether the strong emphasis put by Gareth Jenkins on the breakdown area in training in recent weeks will pay any sort of dividend.
All said, and this applies to both the set-piece and the breakdown area, both sides should secure a pretty even amount of ball, if things work like we expect them to, and this game could come down to how effective the respective pair of half-backs are in possession. For the only time in this championship, Ireland will be facing a half-back pairing, in the shape of Dwayne Peel and Stephen Jones, at least as good as their own.
The variety in Peel's game and the general pragmatic nature of Jones's play will keep Ireland guessing but you still fancy Ronan O'Gara to have a big say in this game. The Munster out-half hasn't quite lived up to the extraordinary standards he set for himself towards the end of 2006 thus far in 2007, but we can expect him to step things up again now that the pressure's back on. He's a big game player.
Outside that lot, Ireland have a clear advantage, if only because the likes of Shane Williams, Mark Jones and Tom Shanklin have succumbed to injury over the past couple of weeks. From James Hook outwards, Wales look a little disjointed, although Chris Czekaj, Kevin Morgan and Hal Luscombe are all decent players in their own right. For Ireland, we don't have to go into great detail about the running ability of D'Arcy, O'Driscoll and Hickie, or the improvements in Girvan Dempsey's game since Michael Cheika took over at Leinster, but Andrew Trimble on the right wing is a bit of a worry. The Ulster lad is a fine footballer, no doubt, but he's a centre, not a wing and that could be an area for Wales to focus on over the 80 minutes.
During Ireland's summer tour to New Zealand and Australia, Trimble appeared more than a touch uncomfortable when turned, particularly when forced to kick back to the opposition, and his selection over the in-form Geordan Murphy may be regretted by tea-time this evening. What the Ulster player's selection does point to is that the Irish coach still likes to give his teams a target to work off, and Trimble coming off the blindside wing is a ploy that's given Ireland plenty of go-forward ball in the past.
Let's just hope his defensive frailties don't outweigh his undoubted assets.
With most of the game's key areas likely to be pretty close, with Ireland perhaps holding a slight edge due to Wales's backline injury list, it's going to be an extremely tight affair and that's where 2005 offers us some guidance. Home advantage is capable of tipping proceedings ever so slightly in Wales's favour and, more to the point, we know they've delivered in circumstances similar to this before.
Ireland, as of yet, haven't.
A home win. Just.
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