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Losing my nerve and kicking myself



IT'S BEEN another pretty stressful week at the races. The last few weeks have been tough and I'm still feeling jittery in my trading.

Starting on a bright note, eBay continues to act very well. Strong technical resistance at $34 is just ahead. It failed at this juncture a few weeks ago but may have enough steam in the tank to do it this time.

If it does clear $34, I'd be very con"dent of some decent upside.

While I'm hopeful it can surpass it, I know that the market doesn't give a damn about my hopes so I've just taken partial pro"ts at the $33.50 area. Considering the stock has contributed over Euro1,000 to the trading coffers over the past fortnight, it was prudent to protect those lovely pro"ts.

Apple, on the other hand, continues to tease and taunt. I've endured a hellish fortnight with this pup and it shows no sign of ending.

My short position has been going in my favour over the last week, drifting lower below $83. I was looking forward to taking some pro"ts at the $82 level - only after taking partial pro"ts do I ever manage to relax and actually enjoy a trade - but the damn thing reversed on Wednesday, closing above $86. I'm kicking myself on this one.

The stock hinted at a reversal on Tuesday, closing near its high of the day after earlier hitting a four-week low. There's no doubt I should have lowered my stop but I elected to hang on and hope. As I've said numerous times in this column, that's a loser's game and I got my just desserts on Wednesday.

Some may see all this as hindsight, but I was given some clues that I should have heeded. The obvious place to lower my stop to was above $85.25. The stock had failed to surpass this price on two consecutive days and, once it did, it was obvious trouble was in the works. Exiting at that price would have meant a small but insigni"cant loss. If the price comes back to the $85 region in the coming days, I will almost certainly close out my position.

Speaking of Apple, there were rumours last week that the computer company is about to make a 'big' announcement (a Beatles/iTunes announcement or a new wide-touch-screen video iPod, apparently) in the near future. Is it true? Is it relevant? I don't know, but I thought I might pass the news on to readers anyway.

Apple wasn't the only stock giving me headaches last week. I'd been looking to short Blackberry manufacturer Research in Motion for a while and got my chance when the stock moved up to its 50-day moving average at $132. I went short, placing my stop $5 further ahead. The damn thing just blew me away and I took my maximum loss of Euro800 within a day of entry - the quickest loss in quite a while. There's nothing you can do about such cases. The same set-up has worked for me on countless occasions so I'm not going to beat myself up about it.

Staying on the subject of stressful short trades, I went short on crude oil at $58. After being hammered in January, oil has come roaring back and was badly in the need of a breather. I expected selling here (50day moving average) but, in keeping with the topsy-turvy week I've been experiencing, it wasn't that simple.

Instead, the price went as high as $59.50 (my stop was just above $60) before the sellers "nally came out on Wednesday, driving the price back down to $57.

With Apple going against me and my account looking more vulnerable after the Research in Motion loss, I was itching to take my meagre pro"ts and get out.

What stopped me? I have a sign on my wall saying 'Don't be a moron'.

I'm serious. Glancing at it reminds me to not let my emotions dictate my trading and to, well, not be a moron. When a trader starts losing money, he gets jittery and starts cutting his pro"ts prematurely. At least, that's my instinct. I don't have a problem cutting losses, but it's very dif"cult to let your winners run, especially when things are going against you.

In my case, I try not to take pro"ts until they have at least equalled my initial risk. Going short at $58 with a stop at $60 meant I was risking $2, so it made no sense to take pro"ts of just $1. If you keep trading like that, it's only a matter of time before your trading account is in ruins.

In other words, the position remains intact. It may turn out to be a losing trade. I'm not psychic, so I don't know. If it does, I won't berate myself.

Finally, I'm eyeing up another Elan short. I had contemplated going short at the $13 area, but the buyers came out in droves and I stood aside.

Wednesday presented a fantastic shorting opportunity, with the stock coming up to its 50-day moving average at $13.75. It was a real nobrainer and the stock retreated back to $13.30. Tragically, I missed it (too busy gnawing my "ngernails looking at Apple and oil charts). If Wednesday's low is taken out, I will probably go short, with my stop placed around $13.80.

I'm a bit hesitant for two reasons, however. First, Elan's recent upsurge has been accompanied by very heavy volume. Second, I'm hesitant with every trade at the moment. My balance is pretty unchanged from the previous week's but I'm just not feeling any degree of "uency at the moment. Hopefully, next week will provide a few wins to soothe this monkey's increasingly frayed nerves.

Weekly gain/loss: -Euro150 Overall balance: Euro37,900




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