. . . but Ireland will need the rub of the green without Brian O'Driscoll, Peter Stringer and a large part of their gameplan
HISTORY has been served to us thick and fast all week but amid the talk of Croke Park, of British rule and suppression, of that bloody afternoon back in 1920, we've forgotten that had today's visitors to GAA headquarters actually bothered to turn up, as promised, at Bantry Bay back in 1798, then the issues discussed this week might never have infringed upon our past. It's just typical of the French, they've never really done away trips, be that football, rugby or popping over to Ireland to help rid the poor natives of their awful oppressors. They have a lot of answer for.
In saying that, France have come a long way over the past two centuries or so, or more specifically the past decade, when it comes to turning up for away games. The Heineken Cup has exposed their village-spire loving players to a little bit more of something different and as their results in the competition have gradually improved, it's had a knock-on effect for the international side.
Over the past three seasons, they've won six of their seven away games in the Six Nations (the one defeat coming last year against Scotland), a run that includes a 26-19 victory over Ireland in 2005 at Lansdowne Road, the result that put paid to all thoughts of the home side winning their first Grand Slam title since 1948. It's interesting to note that they weren't favourites heading into that fixture yet still managed to beat a one-paced Ireland by virtue of a superb performance by Benoit Baby.
Brian O'Driscoll did keep the result in doubt until the end with a typical scything try in the dying minutes but it was about the only time that afternoon an Irish backline torched by injury created anything above the mundane.
There are similar worries today.
The loss of Peter Stringer with a hand injury will undoubtedly slow down the service to Ireland's backs who thrive on quick ball and, even at that, the re-jigged centre combination - a cause of Brian O'Driscoll's pulled hamstring -isn't half as dangerous as it is with the captain present.
Shane Horgan, even according to himself at this stage, is a winger, not a centre, principally because he's never possessed the sleight of hand for the position. He will earn Ireland precious yards up the middle with his bulky frame but we can't help thinking that Andrew Trimble would have been a better pick on the day.
Gordon D'Arcy's development as a 12 over the past couple of years has been so impressive that he simply can't be shifted from the second receiver position, which leaves Horgan looking a little out of place at 13. Trimble's strong running game would have solved that problem but at least the presence of Geordan Murphy on the right wing gives Ireland that touch of unpredictability. And of course Trimble can be sprung from the bench if the D'Arcy/Horgan midfield axis doesn't bear fruit. Let's hope it does.
In comparison, the French backline is primed to cut loose in the right circumstances. Mignoni likes to get his passes out fast and long, Skrela is not one to over elaborate at out-half and David Marty, Yannick Jauzion, Clement Poitrenaud, Christophe Dominici and Vincent Clerc should benefit from that combined express delivery. It's a mouth watering backline on paper and it's likely to be as dangerous in live form.
But of course, that's putting the cart before the horse and there's an intriguing battle to be won or lost up front first, a battle that's even more vital to Ireland now that Stringer and O'Driscoll are out.
The breakdown area, for the second week in a row, is going to be crucial and with Steve Walsh keeping an eye on Simon Easterby's illicit attraction to opposition ball on the floor, Ireland are going to have to be a little less obvious in their scavenging activities this time around.
At any rate, the need to slow things down isn't as great as it was last weekend against a Welsh side who like to play in a rapid-fire manner, which should lead to a greater influence from Ireland's totemic ball-carriers in the pack. Paul O'Connell and David Wallace spent half of last week's game with their heads on the ground and their arses in the air but expect to see a little more of the pair with ball in hand this time around.
In particular, we're expecting a big game from O'Connell, especially now that he's captain.
The scrum is where most critics expect Ireland to be shunted backwards at a rate of knots but just as they did last weekend, the Irish frontrow will survive and the home side could make hay at the line-out.
Last week France coughed up eight balls out of touch, albeit against a competitive Italian operation, and Ireland are capable of dismantling them in the same manner.
Fine player around the park that he is, Raphael Ibanez's throwing is not reliable enough to be termed international class and even though Imanol Harinordoquy has ostensibly been brought in to give his side an extra option at the tail, it's an area where Ireland could enjoy some success today.
With Ronan O'Gara using his peerless line-kicking game to earn Ireland decent position - and with a disrupted backline, that's surely what they'll look to do - the home side's line-out are more than capable of nicking the odd throw and causing a bit of mayhem from there. It shouldn't be Ireland's sole route of attack by any means but it's an avenue that should be used more today than it has been over the past 12 months or so. Even at that, though, you have to worry.
With Stringer and O'Driscoll on the pitch, you'd have backed Ireland but in the absence of much of what makes this team so successful - the scrum-half 's sharp delivery, the centre's ability to beat a man - you cannot help but worry.
If the French pack can gain parity up-front, particularly in the line-out, and their backs all tune onto the same wavelength for the entire 80 minutes, they're capable of beating Ireland in the tryscoring stakes and the rest will follow on from there.
A supreme Irish defensive effort, much like last weekend's back-foot display against Wales, could upset things a little but they'll need as much luck as they had at the Millennium Stadium if they're to give a day brimful of history a bit of meaning.
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