Jonny Wilkinsonwill hit 15 points and England's pack will pile on the pressure, but Ireland's greater talent at the back should seal the game
A COUPLE of weeks back, before the start of this season's Six Nations, Brian Ashton was asked why it was England had lost their previous three encounters to Ireland. The coach came out with a simple, truthful answer. "They've had better players than us over the past few years." Then, visualising a few nasty headlines, he added an appendix to his oneliner. "I'm not sure if that's the case this season, though."
It's an interesting poser heading into what's likely to be a fascinating build-up to Saturday's game at Croke Park. History and politics are going to enter the domain as the week wears on but they shouldn't be a distracting factor for either side come kickoff. That's why we're going to look at this game in pure rugby terms.
England have already named their starting XV so that they could bully their clubs into giving some of their preferred choices an afternoon off and the tactic has worked to a degree. Jonny Wilkinson, Phil Vickery, Mike Tindall and the Leicester Tigers contingent have been granted a weekend in the stands but Ashton will still have an anxious wait this evening to see how many of the six players who started for their clubs over the weekend show up unharmed at England's camp in Bath.
Eddie O'Sullivan, meanwhile, doesn't have to worry about playing such games with the subservient Irish provinces. Isaac Boss was the only player from the starting line-up against France to play in the Magners League on Friday night, and that was chiefly because, you can only presume, Peter Stringer is likely to be fully fit in time for the England game.
With Brian O'Driscoll also certain to be back, and Ronan O'Gara confident of shrugging off a knock to his ankle in time, O'Sullivan's selection should be pretty straight-forward, with perhaps just two areas of contention.
At hooker, Rory Best has been under constant surveillance since the start of the Six Nations by the menacing shadow of a fit-again Jerry Flannery. It was a touch surprising to see Frankie Sheahan start for Munster ahead of the Shannon man on Friday night, especially considering that Flannery still hasn't played a full 80 minutes since he damaged his shoulder at the end of last season. What can be drawn from the decision is that Best is likely start against England and he's deserving of the honour too. He's had two decent games around the park so far in the tournament, allied to two accurate performances out of touch. Flannery will have to wait his turn.
The blindside flanker position is another discussion point. Simon Easterby rightfully clawed the jersey off Neil Best at the start of the tournament on the back of his form with Llanelli, but the critics who question his disappearing acts in certain games are back following the defeat to France. Never mind that his line-out performances over the past two games have been exceptional, it might just be that O'Sullivan plumps for Best, a player far more visible, for what's likely to be an abrasive encounter. It's going to be a game where Ireland simply can't afford to start slow and a pumped up Best could be the best way of carrying the early fight to England.
On that theme, there's likely to be a mighty battle up front. The Irish scrum will, for the third game in a row, be under much scrutiny but you'd back Marcus Horan, Rory Best and John Hayes to hold their own once more.
The line-out battle is also going to be interesting, not least because Louis Deacon effectively outplayed both Paul O'Connell and Donncha O'Callaghan in that particular area during Leicester's victory over Munster at Thomond Park. The Irish pair will be looking for revenge on that count but it's in the ball-carrying stakes that this forward battle is going to be won or lost. Joe Worsley, Martin Corry and Deacon are all formidable ball-carriers and Danny Grewcock and George Chuter are no mugs either. Against Wales, and to a lesser degree France, Denis Leamy and David Wallace were the only Irish players to take on the ball-carrying burden but O'Callaghan, O'Connell and Horan need to be extra prominent on Saturday. The inclusion of Neil Best at six will also help.
Beyond the brutes, Ireland undoubtedly have more offthe-cuff talent than England in their ranks. You'd hope they'll be able to get the ball into wider channels than they did against France, especially on a Croke Park pitch that gives the perception of being quite spacious. Peter Stringer's rapid-fire delivery is going to help matters on this front but remember that England defence coach Mike Ford knows both the strengths and, more importantly, the weaknesses of all of the Irish players and this could be a key factor. Jason Robinson running at Shane Horgan, for example, could be the kind of awkward situation a pragmatic English backline look to create often.
With Jonny Wilkinson likely to kick somewhere between 12 and 18 points on Saturday (he averages 15 points per international), depending essentially on how disciplined Ireland remain in their own half, O'Sullivan's side are probably going to have to score one, maybe even two tries more than England to win this one. If they move the ball in the right areas, they're capable of achieving just that and although it's going to be an extremely close game (the last three encounters have seen winning margins of six, six and four), we'll stick our neck out for Ireland.
Contrary to what Ashton said before the start of the tournament, O'Sullivan's side still have the better players. And that should be enough.
IRELAND (probable) G Dempsey; S Horgan, B O'Driscoll (c), G D'Arcy, D Hickie;
R O'Gara, P Stringer; M Horan, R Best, J Hayes, D O'Callaghan, P O'Connell, N Best, D Wallace, D Leamy ENGLAND O Morgan; J Robinson, M Tindall, A Farrell, J Lewsey; J Wilkinson, H Ellis; P Freshwater, G Chuter, P Vickery (c), D Grewcock, L Deacon, J Worsley, M Lund, M Corry RESULTS, TABLE AND FIXTURES PWDLFAPts France 220059204 England 220062274 Ireland 210136292 Scotland 2 1 0 1 41 51 2 Wales 200218400 Italy 2 0 0 2 10 59 0 RESULTS 3 February Italy 3 France 39; England 42 Scotland 20 4 February Wales 9 Ireland 19 10 February England 20 Italy 7; Scotland 21 Wales 9 11 February Ireland 17 France 20 FIXTURES Saturday 24 February Scotland v Italy, Murray"eld, 3.00; Ireland v England, Croke Park, 5.30; France v Wales, Stade de France, 8.00 Saturday 10 March Scotland v Ireland, Murray"eld, 1.30; Italy v Wales, Stadio Flaminio, 3.30 Sunday 11 March England v France, Twickenham, 3.00 Saturday 17 March Italy v Ireland, Stadio Flaminio, 1.30; France v Scotland, Stade de France, 3.30;
Wales v England, Millennium Stadium, 5.30
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