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Battered and bruised, but back on form



AT last, a winning week. It could have been much better, but I'm relieved to be back to winning ways.

First up, Elan. Readers are probably blue in the face from my constant reminders that the Elan share price has been in a serious down-trend over the past six months. The easy money has been in playing the short side but last week's price surge has changed matters. Biogen, Elan's partner in the manufacture of multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri, issued upbeat news regarding sales of the drug and the price took off, rising almost 10% on the day.

I've been bearish on Elan, but I'm not shocked by the price surge. No one who has been following the Elan chart closely should be. I wrote last Sunday that "the shares have shown signs of life over the past few weeks, leading me to conclude that smart money was expecting the Tysabri news to be positive". Just look at the chart . . .after bottoming at $11.70 in late January, the price jumped by a full $2 in the following weeks. Unlike previous rises, this was on heavy volume.

So why didn't I go long in advance of the news? Because I don't like taking positions in advance of major news events. If my analysis is wrong, the price may drop way below my stop loss order and I'll be left licking my wounds. I don't have the stomach for it.

Anyway, I still managed to make a few quid for myself, going long at $14.10 on the day of the Biogen announcement and selling just shy of $15 for a one-day profit of 800 or so. It could have been more. I wasn't at my computer for the first hour of trading, so I missed out on a better entry price ($13.80 would have been possible, although I shouldn't complain . . . the intra-day set-up I was presented with was a beauty). Secondly, my recent losing streak has resulted in me 'playing safe' and reducing my bet size for a while. Selling at $15 . . . the stock's 200-day moving average . . . was a no-brainer.

Elan reported its own earnings on Tuesday and the news was good . . . a smaller than expected loss thanks to higher revenues. What happened? The stock sold off by over a dollar over the following days.

After a rise of over 25% over the last few weeks, and with the 200-day moving average just ahead, some profit-taking was due. Only the truly naive were buying into news that clearly was discounted in the price.

Going forward, I'm sorely tempted to get long, preferably around $13.75 (the 50-day moving average that has been so important over the last six months). Buyers should reemerge at this juncture. One to watch.

My only other trade last week was in Biogen. Unlike Elan, the price has been hammered over the past week, dropping by almost 10% (revenue came in below expectations). By Wednesday, it was approaching its 200-day moving average at $46.50 and the monkey dived in.

The first few hours of trading saw it threaten this level several times, with buyers saving the day each time. It closed above $47 and I'm hopeful of further buying in the following days.

'Never catch a falling knife' is an old market adage. It's good advice, but I chose to ignore it this time. I've been reading charts long enough to know that Biogen offered a good chance of a quick scalp. If price can come up to the $48 region, I'll close the position. This is one of those counter-trend trades where you want to take your pro"ts and get out quick. I've already moved my stop up to the break-even point so as to ensure I'm not out of pocket if the selling resumes.

While the above profits have been welcome after the profits drought of recent weeks, I'm conscious that it should have been much better.

Apple took off on Wednesday after Prudential raised EPS estimates for the stock, citing strong Mac sales and higher gross margin assumptions. The stock surged forward by over $3 to end the day at $89.20. Of course, I missed the move (I was too busy biting my fingernails as Biogen hovered around its 200-day MA).

To be honest, I didn't take much notice of the Prudential news. Often a stock will receive a glowing recommendation and not budge.

No, were I to have entered the trade, it would have been on the basis that the stock staged a breakout from its recent trading range (it has been stuck in a tight trading range between $83-$86.50 over the past three weeks). The ease with which it cleared its 50-day moving average at $86.70 was further evidence that the bulls were genuinely emboldened by the Prudential estimates.

Anyway, I missed it. Really, it's ridiculous. I'm well able to watch a number of charts at the one time.

Staring at the screen after you've already taken a position is one of life's more absurd ways of passing the time. I've done this a number of times over the past few weeks, missing other opportunities in the process, and it's got to stop. Too amateurish for words.

I'm still long eBay. The stock looked like it might stage a breakout on Tuesday, creeping a few cents above the all-important $34 level, but the sellers came out of the woodwork and it retreated. In all, no real change here.

As for the markets, buyers seem to come out at the first hint of weakness. I know a lot of bears who keep waiting for a correction . . .

they're pulling their hair out at the moment. I wouldn't short a strong market but it's too extended to consider getting long. Better to have a mixture of long and short positions.

At the moment, committing aggressively to either side looks risky.

Weekly gain/loss: + 1,050 Overall balance: 38,100




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