Most of the season has been wished away again.

Almost every race since October, from novice hurdles to Grade One chases have been subjected to the 'C' test even before the winners have had time to dip their nose in a well-earned bucket of water.

"Will he be going to Cheltenham? Which race will you target? Do you think he will jump around?" The excitement of the 'here and now' almost obliterated by the immediate fantasies of Gloucstershire in the spring time.

The climax to the season is, of course, a justifiably momentous week, but the game would be much more evenly enjoyable if there was time to draw breath and enjoy what goes before. For example, Ruby Walsh has twice this season performed an athletic miracle to stay aboard Kauto Star and go on to win top-class races, but instead of celebrating his horsemanship and the horse the first intrusive question from behind a Channel Four microphone is usually along the lines of, "Can he win the Gold Cup jumping like that?"

When Beef or Salmon came from somewhere the other side of Donnybrook to catch The Listener in the Hennessy earlier this month at Leopardstown, the postmortem was all about whether Michael Hourigan should or shouldn't have another go in the Gold Cup, when only five minutes earlier his old soldier had created enough magic and excitement to have red-faced punters dancing deliriously in the stands chanting, "You'll never beat the Irish."

At least this week saw the last of the meaningful trials, the 'phoney wars' are over and the festival can now stand alone as the centre of the season with a bit more justification. Well at least until Aintree and Punchestown come around that is. So how does it all look now? With less than a month to go have there been any undiscovered ante-post gems left behind?

There are, as Donald Rumsfeld might put it, "Known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns, that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don't know we don't know".

Here is a 'known known'. In stables all over Ireland there are 'good things' that have been prepared carefully for the festival for months, skipping many obvious opportunities along the way. They will start at ridiculously short prices and most of them will be beaten.

Then there is a 'known unknown.' You know that 50 quid has survived the winter in your ante-post account, but you haven't a clue what to do with it now.

And finally, there is an 'unknown unknown'. There were nine fatalities at Cheltenham last year and the course executive will be anxious to avoid any further scrutiny from the RSPCA and do all they can to make the track safer. For the first time in over a decade there is a strong possibility of soft or heavy ground at the festival, and this represents a seismic shift. Previous festival winners have a real propensity to run well or even win again, but the probability of a major change in the going offers some options for the last minute ante post punter and his 50 quid. It is essentially a bet on the weather.

A case in point is the twomile Champion Chase. At face value this looks to be a race dominated by the top three in the betting, Well Chief, Newmill and Voy Por Ustedes. Newmill gave his connections a nice headache when he slammed Macs Joy in the recent Red Mills Trial hurdle at Gowran Park. Their dilemma is which race to target, the champion chase or champion hurdle. If the ground is soft they have indicated they may try to win the hurdle, and his best form Chasing has certainly been when the ground was good.

Well Chief won on his return from a two-year absence at Newbury last week, but he too has shown his best form on a sound surface as has Voy Por Ustedes.

Now look down to the fourth favourite, Nickname.

Martin Brassil's charge has won all his six races since he came to Ireland when the words 'soft' or 'heavy' appeared in the description of the going. Cheltenham has been at least one grade softer for all its main meetings this season than it has in recent years, so if you believe the answer may be in the clouds, then you can still get seven to one on Nickname.

If he turns up fit and well and the ground is heavy he won't be anywhere near those odds.

There may be equivalent value in some of the other big races too. The favourites for the two championship hurdle races, Detroit City and Black Jack Ketchum have a pronounced form bias on good ground, and indeed Black Jack was stuffed on heavy ground last time out.

All the clues are there, but it will need some work. So it is time to go bald-headed for the form book and, to paraphrase Britney again, "Hit that baby one more time."

Then just pray for rain, and hope that there really is some brass in muck.