Q In your opinion, between India and China, which country has the best business prospects?
Ravikiran Prabhakara, Bangalore, India
A Don't we wish we knew the definitive answer to that question! Doesn't everyone?
That's why there are so many books, articles, speeches, research papers and even blogs on the topic. It seems that everyone not already playing in the global market is trying to figure out which of these two emerging powerhouses to bet on.
Our opinion is . . . well, neither. Or both. Or either one.
What we mean is this: The choice between China and India is entirely situational.
Both countries have advantages and disadvantages. The only way to pick between them, if you must, is to find the best match between what your business needs to win and what each country can, or can't, offer to make that happen. It's as simple as that.
OK, so maybe determining that match isn't exactly simple. There's so much information out there, lots of it contradictory, and most big companies have already sorted through it all for their own conclusions.
But for any small or midsized company still considering globalization, we offer a four-part framework as a way to think through the ChinaIndia decision. It's based on the assumption that economies have four ingredients that facilitate success:
political stability, infrastructure, local and export markets and "human grrr factor" (not a technical term exactly, but you know what we mean.
China and India each have some portion of these ingredients. The determining factor is not which countries has more. It's which has the right amount for you.
Take political stability. If that's what your business desperately needs - it requires huge capital investments, for instance - India is the better fit. Yes, India is riddled with corruption. But today, its top team, led by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, is said to have real integrity.
The downside of India's form of coalition democracy, of course, is a bureaucracy that moves slowly - as in extremely.
Meanwhile, China was able to relocate 1.3 million people and, within 15 years, complete the colossal Three Gorges Dam, which by 2011 will generate 22.4 million kilowatts of electricity at any one time. But China's speed advantage has to be tempered. The country is in the midst of a massive experiment trying to wed economic freedom and political collectivism. Will the marriage last? Maybe. But in the worst-case scenario, its collapse could put foreign investments at risk, including the prospect of confiscation. In other words, the lower your outlay to get started, the more attractive China becomes.
By contrast, if infrastructure is what your business needs to succeed, China has the clear advantage. It has 10 times as many express highways, for example, and its power costs 40% less. You wouldn't ever pick, say, Mumbai to build an electricitydevouring aluminum plant to serve global markets. But you wouldn't be off base to plant your global ad agency, movie studio or call center there.
The edge also goes to China when it comes to local markets.
Its GDP is almost three times that of India and it has more consumers with buying power. China's industrial buyers also beckon, thanks to the country's manufacturing sector. India has long concentrated on its service sector, at the expense of manufacturing. Indeed, India's only local market advantage could be that it's easier to enter and survive in because, well, it's just so much less competitive than China.
As for exports, it's China again, as the country's manufacturing productivity and process improvement skills overwhelm India's. Depending on your industry, you can go it alone there, form a joint venture or contract manufacture to feed your global supply chain. Only in high tech manufacturing does India offer an edge to exporters, but probably not for much longer.
Finally, let's look at the human grrr factor - that mixture of ambition, energy and passion that magically tends to fuel economic growth.
Every business wants as many people with grrr as they can get their hands on. So, which country has more? It's a split decision. China excels at process creativity, India at innovation. But for grrr in general, you can't discount the sheer ferocity of the Chinese.
Obviously, we are talking in broad strokes, and exceptions abound, but our experience is that, because more Chinese are willing to work at such insane intensity, their productivity is difficult for anyone to beat.
Still, what good is grrr if the country with more of it might implode? And that brings us back where we started.
Look, your query is not really an either-or question.
It's a what-who question.
What do we need to win and who can give it to us?
Our framework won't answer those two questions beyond a reasonable doubt, but it can start you on the road to globalization. And after that, your only question may be "Why didn't we start sooner?"
Jack and Suzy Welch are the authors of the international best-seller 'Winning'.
You can e-mail them your career questions at Winning@nytimes. com. Please include your name, occupation, city and country.
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