There are still 20 months to go before the US presidential election, but already an intense, ferocious campaign is under way for nominations
LET'S roll. Post-9/11 America begins here. Come on down and pick the leader with the mostest. The world's most powerful nation needs somebody bearing at least half a loaf to take over from the incumbent. The election may be nearly two years away, but since the present sucks, let's focus on the future.
It's as if the country can't wait to see the back of George W. He managed to fool all the people for some of the time, but the bodies kept mounting up, and the dollars kept disappearing down a black hole, and now everybody wants to forget the power they vested in him. Who's next? Roll up, roll up, and show us what you got.
The runners and riders are already in training camp. Last week showed how serious the fare has got. Appropriately, it started out in Hollywood, dream factory for some, ATM machine if you're a contender for president.
Media mogul and former Clinton buddy David Geffen told theNew York Times that Hill 'n' Bill are no longer on his Christmas-card list. He's throwing his dollars at the wonder kid with sparkle in his eyes: Barack Obama.
Talking to Maureen Dowd, Geffen told how he lost faith in the Clintons when they pardoned some serious criminals on their way out of the White House.
"Marc Rich getting pardoned? An oil-profiteer expatriate who left the country rather than pay taxes or face justice?" Geffen asked. "Yet another time when the Clintons were unwilling to stand for the things that they genuinely believe in. Everybody in politics lies, but they do it with such ease, it's troubling." Ouch.
Hillary was seriously discommoded. She would dearly love to have Geffen's Hollywood cred on her side. But, far more importantly, all those dollars gone west? How could you, Dave?
Some of Hillary's people suggested that Obama should apologise on behalf of Geffen for dissing the royal couple of the Democratic Party. The response was the American version of a PFO, or, to use the vernacular, take a hike.
The wannabe roadshow moved across town on Sunday night, to the Oscars. Al Gore picked up a gong for his environmental film An Inconvenient Truth.Al Gore is a good man. Al Gore is a man of integrity. Al Gore cares about the planet. But even with Hollywood's hottest, Leonardo di Caprio, helping him out on stage, Al Gore is a bore.
On the basis that the White House is all the time inching closer to Hollywood, some began whispering that the Oscar might throw Al back into contention. An inconvenient truth is that he hasn't a chance. The former future president was defrauded of his prize in 2000 but he is destined to be a victim of the Scott Fitzgerald dictum that there are no second acts in American lives.
By Monday, it was back to the future. A breakin at the Democratic HQ was reported. A few unspecified items were missing. Watergate, anyone? Is the ghost of Tricky Dick Nixon and his plumbers returning to haunt American politics?
Unfortunately for the conspiracy theorists, the HQ in question was in tiny New Hampshire, a vital spot for primaries, but unlikely to hold any major party secrets.
By Tuesday, there was a call for peace in our time from Democratic contender Bill Richardson.
(This lad raised $2m in one fundraiser last month, which in the nature of these things is more important than what he thinks about the economy or the war. ) He wants Hillary and Barack Obama to engage in d�tente and not to let Hollywood moguls come between them.
"What I am proposing, " Richardson said, "is that every Democratic candidate sign a pledge that we will not engage in any negative campaigning toward each other." Needless to say, neither the Boy Wonder nor Hillary were biting. The only candidate to respond was Joe Biden, who agreed, one no-hoper to another, to sign up with Bill.
Biden threw his hat in the ring in January, telling whoever was interested: "I'm going to be Joe Biden, and I'm going to try to be the best Biden I can be. If I can, I got a shot. If I can't, I lose." Way to go, Joe. Shut the door on your way out.
Until a few months ago, Hillary was the great white hope for the Democrats. She is not a grey, middle-aged man. She is very smart. She can lay claim, by proxy, to the Clinton magic. And boy could she snaffle the dollars.
Then this Obama chap came up on the inside and pulled the magic from under her. He can claim, in the tradition of Michael Jackson, to be neither black nor white. He is young. He has his own patented brand of Bill Clinton's charisma. He talks a great game. The dollars love him. The night before Geffen dumped on poor Hill, he hosted a fundraiser for Obama, hoovering up $1.3m in one fell swoop. What more could the US want?
Crucially for Barack, he is also inexperienced, which seems to be an advantage in presidential elections. It means the one-term senator doesn't have much of a voting record that can be flung back in his face. In the crazy race to wear Uncle Sam's top hat, where there is little of much substance between the main parties, your voting record is a weapon in your enemy's hands.
There is, however, one issue from Obama's past that has returned to delight rather than haunt him. Four years ago, when Hillary and most of the US were gung-ho to kick Saddam's ass, Obama stood with the naysayers. Now everybody thinks Iraq was one dumb idea. Say, Barack, how come you knew before the rest of us and weren't afraid to say it? You must be one brave, bright cookie.
Hillary, by contrast, has been groomed within an inch of her life to swing this way and that with public opinion. The liberal, bordering on leftie, First Lady of 1992 has been transmogrified into a vessel into which you can pour whatever you're having yourself. She is now the flip-flop gal, in danger of being labelled like a predecessor, one John Kerry.
Speaking of flip-flops, a Republican contender with issues in this department is Mitt Romney.
Mitt has all the credentials for the top job, but carries a little baggage. A self-made millionaire and Mormon, he rose to be governor of Massachusetts, something of a liberal bastion. On the baggage front, he didn't get to where he is without spouting plenty of stuff that wouldn't go down too well in the Republican heartlands.
Supporting gay marriage in New England is fine and dandy, but out in the red states, that kind of talk gets you chased out of town. Similarly, in 1994, Romney told his Massachusetts audience that he was in favour of gun control. "I don't line up with the NRA, " he said. He does now. He joined that crazy gang in August of last year.
The Democrats love him. The party's National Committee released this little nugget last week.
"Romney hasn't changed his mind on an issue, he's changed it on just about every issue in this campaign, including immigration, gun control, abortion, gay rights, campaign finance reform, tax cuts, health care, stem-cell research - even his own political heroes." The last reference was to Ronald Reagan, whom Romney couldn't stand.
Guess where he stands on Reagan now. . .
On Wednesday, John McCain threw his hat in the ring. McCain is a man whom swing Democrats could do business with, but is probably too liberal to get past the Republican nomination. He's also a straight-talker who hasn't done much straight-talking of late - his handlers have been trying to smooth out his edges.
His baggage is Iraq. Unlike most of the US, he has stuck with the clown in the Oval Office through the "surge" policy that is sending more troops to die in the Middle East. Of late, he's backing off, reversing to join Mitt and Hillary in the flip-flop quicksand.
The only other Republican of note is the hero of 9/11, Rudy Giuliani. The former mayor of New York began public life as a criminal prosecutor and ended his ascent to the city's pinnacle leading and empathising in the wake of the outrage.
Again, the swing voters could dig him but the character issue is likely to be his Waterloo. Married three times, divorced twice, told the world of his last divorce before he broke the news to his wife, shared a flat with a gay friend, dressed up in drag for charity. The good ol' boys just couldn't see such a man as their commander in chief.
Still, it's all to play for. Here's hoping the entertainment goes on and on.
THE CONTENDERS DEMOCRATS Senator Barack Obama, Illinois Senator Hillary Clinton, New York Senator Joseph Biden, Delaware Governor Bill Richardson, New Mexico Former Senator John Edwards, North Carolina Representative Dennis J Kucinich, Ohio Governor Tom Vilsack, Iowa REPUBLICANS Governor Mitt Romney, Massachusetts Senator John McCain, Arizona Senator Sam Brownback, Kansas Governor George Pataki, New York Rudolph Giuliani, former mayor of New York
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