THERE is an old adage about those who ignore history being condemned to repeat it. The worry is that the forthcoming general election is shaping up to be a rerun of the 1977 election when Fianna F�il's disastrous give-away manifesto helped plunge the country into a decade-long recession.

There is still about 10 weeks to go to polling day and none of the political parties has published an election manifesto, yet already in the region of Euro20bn has been committed. That is on top of the Euro184bn that the government has pledged to spend in the National Development Plan, published in January.

Much of that Euro20bn has been promised in the past few weeks as the political parties have hosted their final party conferences before the election.

The term 'auction politics' has been bandied about, but it probably resembles more closely a very high-stakes game of poker. One party opening with a cut in the bottom rate of tax; another seeing that tax cut and raising it with a cut in the top rate of tax and a massive increase in the old age pension; the next player sighing that it was all a bit rich for his blood, before announcing billions of euro of expenditure on new Luas lines, cutting class sizes and even bigger pension increases.

But with the global economy showing some worrying signs, by the time all the cards are played, there may not be enough money in the kitty to cover all the commitments.

Or at least that's how Fianna F�il would like to portray it. Although it has yet to host its ardfheis, the party has been sending out clear signals that its manifesto will be adopting a 'steady as she goes', cautious approach. Fianna F�il will be emphasising that future prosperity cannot be taken for granted;

that there isn't a bottomless pit of money to dip into; and that, after overseeing 10 years of strong economic growth, it is best to defend that prosperity and guide the country through what could potentially be difficult times ahead.

A spokesman for Fine Gael took a decidedly jaundiced view of Fianna F�il's stance.

"Fianna F�il has been increasing spending by 11% or 12% a year and calling it fiscal prudence, " he said. In contrast, Fine Gael has "tried to keep things fairly tight and prudent". He said Fine Gael and Labour's Euro1bn health plan - which includes free health insurance for all under the age of 16, GP-only cards for under fives and an extra 100,000 medical cards - is designed to generate a return by keeping people out of hospitals.

Fine Gael / Labour Fine Gael also says that any spending plans announced to date by the potential Rainbow partners are "trotting after" Fianna F�il's outlay in the National Development Plan, which has a long series of commitments in areas such as public transport, health and education. Fianna F�il in turn rejects suggestions that the NDP has anything to do with general election gimmickry.

"That suggests the NDP is not vital. If parties are saying that, they have to say which parts of the plan they want to take out. The NDP is vital and essential to Ireland's longterm prosperity.

There are no parts of it that are negotiable, " a source said.

But it is the smaller parties that are really driving the policy agenda in the run-up to the election. Labour brilliantly wrong-footed the government with its commitment to cut the standard rate of tax to 18% - which will cost Euro1.02bn a year. To that bill can be added another annual charge of Euro1bn-plus to fund its five pledges, including 2,300 more hospital beds (Euro600m);

pre-school education for one year (Euro180m);

the abolition of the means test for carers (Euro140m) ; and its policy to enable more people to buy their own homes (Euro100m).

Progressive Democrats The PDs, despite their traditional fiscal rectitude, have gone even further in splashing the cash with commitments costing Euro5.5bn. The party has committed to cutting two points off both the top and standard rates of tax (annual cost: Euro1.7bn);

adjusting tax bands and credits to ensure that a worker would have to earn Euro50,000 before paying the top rate of tax and that a worker on Euro20,000 would pay no tax (Euro2.6bn); abolishing stamp duty for firsttime buyers and introducing banding so buyers pay the higher rate only on the portion of the price over each threshold (Euro350m); and raising the old age pension to Euro300 a week (Euro350m).

However, the PDs insist their ambitious plans are both affordable and prudent, arguing that implementing them will still see a budget surplus in each of the following five years and that the national debt will be eliminated by 2013.

Green Party Nor have the Greens been outdone.

Party leader Trevor Sargent last weekend strongly condemned "auction politics" before going on to make a series of promises about new Luas lines in Galway, Cork and Dublin and reducing class sizes to 20. The party's plans for new Luas lines alone will cost in the region of Euro2bn, while its education programme will involve a Euro1bn upfront investment.

It has also committed to index-linking of tax bands and credits (annual cost Euro500m to Euro700m); free medical cards for children under six (Euro90m) and a financial support scheme to ensure every home in Ireland is brought to a basic standard of warmth and insulation (Euro300m). It also trumped the PDs by raising the weekly old age pension to Euro334. And there is likely to be more to come.

However, the party's finance spokesman, Dan Boyle, said the Greens are also looking at the other side of the balance sheet. It has plans to introduce a 5% bank levy and raise capital gains tax by five points. "We're saying there is another side of the equation. I haven't heard that from any of the other parties, " he says.

Sinn F�in Sinn F�in has also proposed new means of raising revenue. In its pre-budget submission late last year, it proposed raising corporation tax to 17.5% and doubling capital gains tax to help fund a series of social welfare improvements and tax cuts aimed at lower earners, costing in excess of Euro3.7bn a year.

All this, and the FF and FG ardfheiseanna and two more months of electioneering still to come. Of course the Euro20bn figure represents the combined total of what all the parties have promised to date and clearly includes some crossover. Nor can all the parties win, so not all the commitments can come to pass.

But whatever way you look at it - particularly when the NDP is factored in - billions upon billions of euro have already been allocated to be spent by whichever combination of parties forms the next government. And that's after a decade of enormous spending increases.

Perhaps this spending is simply a reflection of Ireland's prosperity. Nor can there be any doubt that the economy and our finances are an awful lot stronger than 30 years ago. But if something does go wrong with the global economy, heaven help whatever government has to manage after the current gold rush.