This is the hottest competition Sinn F�in has yet faced. Before, the SDLP had an almost gentlemanly dislike of battling with its rival. Now, it's rolling up its sleeves, climbing into the ring, and throwing the punches.

Mark Durkan's media performances have hugely improved. He's a nice guy - straightforward and honest - who has been head-and-shoulders above Sinn F�in negotiators in the talks.

The next step is transferring those qualities into electoral success. He still overdoses on detail, rather than speaking from the heart.

The SDLP was 7% behind Sinn F�in in the 2005 Westminster election - the gap could close slightly. Its best hope of a new seat is Councillor Joe Boyle in Strangford. In East Antrim, Larne Mayor Danny O'Connor, who has endured countless loyalist attacks on his home, seems in with a shout.

Gerry Adams is Sinn F�in's greatest asset and the party knows it. It's fighting an almost presidential campaign, an unusual style in Northern politics. Often, there are more Adams posters in constituencies than those of local candidates.

Sinn F�in traditionally boasts an army of canvassers. Some footsoldiers have deserted over policing, but the machine was still so huge that, even at 50% strength, it's bigger than anybody else's. It's also done a good job at inspiring young nationalists.

Paul Butler in Lagan Valley and Mitchel McLaughlin in South Antrim should win new seats, although Alex Maskey is under pressure in South Belfast from Alliance's Anna Lo of the Chinese Welfare Association who hopes to become the North's first ethnic minority representative.

The independent republican candidates are a mixed bag. Some will poll negligibly. But former IRA gun-runner Gerry McGeough (Fermanagh and South Tyrone);

Peggy O'Hara, whose son Patsy died on hunger-strike (Foyle), and Davy Hyland (Newry and Armagh), should go well. The Green Party's best chance of a seat is North Down where Brian Wilson could slip in.

The Ulster Unionists are in a political wasteland and lack the heavy hitters to get out. David Trimble, John Taylor, and Ken Maginnis are gone, and nobody has taken their place, which is the DUP's good fortune.

Anti-St Andrew's Agreement unionists haven't made a huge public impact. The DUP's biggest enemy is apathy. Will unionists be energised to vote in an election which will eventually lead to Sinn F�in in government? If the DUP polls 28% or above, it should be happy.

On the Shankill, Diane Dodds is fighting to hold her West Belfast seat, but gains seem guaranteed in East and South Belfast.

Lagan Valley, Strangford and East Derry are also possibilities. DUP South Down Assembly member Jim Wells, says: "In constituencies close to Belfast, the St Andrew's Agreement isn't even raised by voters; the nearer the border, the greater are the political concerns.

But we should still win at least three new seats."