GERRY Adams and his Sinn F�in colleagues hardly had time to savour their successes in last week's assembly elections. The counting of the final votes had just concluded on Friday as Adams arrived in Dublin for a party meeting. Momentum was the objective as Sinn F�in - a party of near-permanent electioneering - attempted to move seamlessly from its activity north of the border to the hustings for the forthcoming D�il contest.
Sinn F�in will be hoping that last week's electoral gains, along with the possibility of entering government at Stormont, will enhance the position of its D�il candidates. The transition may not, however, be as smooth as many in Sinn F�in hope. The party's electoral record in the two jurisdictions differs considerably. In musical terms, Adams and his band are bill-topping stadium rockers in Northern Ireland, but in the Republic, they are plugging away on the pub-venue circuit.
Holding onto its five D�il will be the party's first task. Caoimhgh�n � Caol�in will be expected to again top the poll in Cavan-Monaghan, while Sean Crowe should be safe in Dublin South West.
The emergence of a strong Green vote in Dublin South Central, and great competition in Louth with the arrival of Fine Gael's Mairead McGuinness, will keep Aengus � Snodaigh and Arthur Morgan, respectively, on their toes. Both should, however, hold their seats. Martin Ferris in Kerry North could face a real battle with the emergence of Labour's Terry O'Brien as a credible candidate.
Even if Sinn F�in holds all five seats, the party needs several gains to ensure momentum is maintained. The party has high hopes for Pearse Doherty (Donegal South West) and Padraig Mac Lochlainn (Donegal North East). There are three target gains in constituencies in the capital - Mary Lou McDonald (Dublin Central), Larry O'Toole (Dublin North East) and Dessie Ellis (Dublin North West). Candidates such as David Cullihane in Waterford and John Dwyer in Wexford are most likely putting down markers for the election after next.
Interestingly, senior sources in FF and FG, while accepting that Doherty and Mac Lochlainn are performing well, maintain the Sinn F�in vote in Dublin will not be strong enough to deliver any seat gains. The prospect of MEP McDonald losing out would be a huge setback. It is for that reason that Adams and others are expected to camp out in Dublin Central for the next 10 weeks.
It is a quarter of a century since the success of Bobby Sands convinced the Adams leadership grouping that political activism was worth pursuing. They faced a steep learning curve. The results of last week's assembly elections show just how fast Sinn F�in has learnt how to win votes.
But it is still unclear if the celebrity status of Adams and McGuinness will deliver sufficient extra votes for southern Sinn F�in candidates. It might just be different down south.
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