On the same day, Spot Thedifference has a "ne record at Cheltenham and will be hard beaten in the Cross-Country Handicap Chase.

He had the better of favourite Heads Onthe Ground on the same course in December, and with that horse partnered by Nina Carberry, the odds should stay favourable for Spot to dot up again. The head of the betting of the Arkle Chase is uncertain due to ground concerns but Tidal Fury is worth a punt for a place if it stays wet. He has won three of his four starts over fences, twice on soft and once on heavy.

Aranleigh is finally gaining favouritism for Wednesday's Champion Bumper, and trainer Tony Mullins is con"dent that's where it should be. Tony's brother Willie has won this race five times and is always well supported, but his most likely, Mad Fish, was five lengths behind Aranleigh at Fairyhouse in January. With Tony McCoy aboard get on before his price gets shorter.

Finally, as noted elsewhere, Kauto Star is no shoo-in for the Gold Cup, where State of Play might be worth a poke. A superb jumper, his generous price is more because of his unfashionable stable than anything else and he is being conditioned speci"cally for the big one. Just like last year's winner.

LAY KAUTO STAR TO PLACE IN THE GOLD CUP 1.93 (Betfair) The general consensus is that Kauto Star (right) will win this race by a street unless he falls over. There's no doubt that Ruby Walsh's favourite is a talented horse, but the facts are these: in 10 chases he has fallen twice, and made horrible mistakes in his two most recent wins. One of those falls was at Cheltenham last year. The Gold Cup is further than he has ever raced before, and we've yet to see how he'll fare up the hill in testing ground. Still, the chances of him being beaten in a head to head are slim; if he doesn't win, he's unlikely to have "nished.

With those grave doubts, take the better than evens that he won't be in the top three.

50-1 ACCUMULATOR Aran Concerto (Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle), Denman (Royal & SunAlliance Chase), Wichita Lineman (Brit Insurance Novices' Hurdle) and Whyso Mayo (Foxhunter Chase) Where the money might be. . .

BLACK JACK KETCHUM TO WIN THE WORLD HURDLE 12-1 (Betfair) After an appalling performance in the Cleeve Hurdle and a warning from Jonjo O'Neill that he might not run if the ground was heavy, Black Jack drifted to 12-1 on the exchanges this week. But with the ground starting to dry up, he's back into 4-1 and may just turn out to be the bet of the week.