MORE and more, it seems the only people who think Kauto Star is going to win the Gold Cup are Paul Nicholls, Clive Smith (his owner) and me. This is a horse that has won all five of his races so far this year by an average distance of over 10 lengths and still there are doubters. You really have to wonder what more he has to do.

People have spent the last while giving out about his jumping, pointing to the fact that he fell in the Queen Mother last year and saying that Cheltenham might succeed in bringing him down where Sandown, Kempton and Newbury have all failed so far this season. All I'd say to that is the circumstances aren't anywhere near the same. When he got to the Queen Mother last year, he hadn't had a run since the Tingle Creek three months earlier. We schooled him in Exeter the week before the festival and no matter what I did, I just could not get him to settle and relax because he was so excited to be out on a racecourse again.

And when it came to Cheltenham he absolutely ran away with me. It was only his third run of the season and he ran so fresh I could hardly keep hold of him. He jumped long at the first, even longer at the second and then way long at the third and came down. He was running completely out of my hands. I hadn't a hope of staying on him.

That won't happen this year. He's had a full season of it, with two good races under his belt since the Tingle Creek and I would be shocked and amazed if he did that again. To me, this idea that his jumping will be exposed by Cheltenham just like it was last year is complete rubbish.

He's made three mistakes all season.

Obviously I'd rather they hadn't happened but they did and guess what? He still won each time. He won by a mile at Kempton from Exotic Dancer - the second favourite in the Gold Cup, remember - and he battled away to beat L'Ami at Newbury even though he gave away all his momentum when he stepped on the last fence instead of jumping it.

To me, the only question left to answer is whether or not he stays the extra quarter-mile. I'm confident he will but like everyone else I won't know for sure until we're halfway up that hill.

As for the opposition, the horse I saw as the biggest danger is gone in War Of Attrition. He was guaranteed to stay up the hill and if he'd made the starting line, I'd be a lot more worried. Exotic Dancer and State Of Play still have a lot of improving to do to match Kauto and after those, you're talking about the likes of The Listener and My Will. I've defended Beef Or Salmon every year he's gone to Cheltenham and I even said he'd win it last year but for whatever reason, he just doesn't perform in England.

Put it this way - if this wasn't the Gold Cup but instead just a Gold Cup trial of 3_ miles, then given his form and the opposition, what price do you think Kauto Star would be? The more I look at it the less I can see him being beaten.

The same goes for Denman in the Sun Alliance Chase (Wednesday, 2.35), the Paul Nicholls horse that won so well at Newbury last time out. Cailin Alainn is a good mare and Snowy Morning is improving all the time but Denman is the best in England by a distance and he's a better horse now that he was this time last year when I was full sure he'd win the Sun Alliance Hurdle. He looks better, he has improved out of sight, he's more relaxed and his jumping at Newbury was incredible. He made those fences look like hurdles. From a betting point of view, he'll go off at a very slim price so anyone looking for a bit of value might keep an eye on Snowy Morning each way.

So Kauto Star and Denman are the two horses that I'll come home most disappointed in if they haven't won. They're far from my only chances, though. For a start, getting the ride on Brave Inca in the Champion Hurdle (Tuesday, 3.15) is a bonus I wouldn't have imagined possible when Tony McCoy won on him last year.

I stayed with McCoy last weekend and was half-sounding him out about it, slagging him really. I kind of knew by his body language that he was going to have to ride Straw Bear so all that was left really was for me to talk to Tom Mullins and ask to get off Asian Maze. Colm Murphy spoke to McCoy on Monday night and by Tuesday, it was sorted.

It's a race that's between three horses, I think that much is clear. On bare form, Detroit City has it over the other two.

Some people - including Conor O'Dwyer himself - have dismissed his win over Hardy Eustace at Cheltenham last time but the truth is, he did everything arseways that day and still won. He had to do all the donkey work and didn't jump great, hated every minute of it and still took the race. He's the one we have to beat, no doubt about it.

I must admit, I'm a little worried about that fact that Brave Inca didn't get home when he jumped the last alongside Hardy Eustace in the AIG. Ordinarily, that's the situation he thrives on. Maybe he had an off day or maybe he's had enough of it all, I don't know. I'm delighted to be riding him, though.

Be in no doubt that Asian Maze will run well and if Robbie Power knocks a better tune out of her that I did, I'll be the first to congratulate him. But I just think she has lost a bit of confidence in her jumping and it's become hesitant and unsure. She's a fine horse, though, and is the one I could see getting among the big three.

As for the Queen Mother (Wednesday, 3.15), I'll be riding Nickname, a horse who if you'd been told at Christmas would be running at Cheltenham, you'd have moved to Australia for a couple of months. Even now, three days away and with the going at Cheltenham sure to be soft, he needs it to keep raining to have any chance. And even then, I think Well Chief is head and shoulders above everything else in the race.

In the Ballymore Properties Hurdle (Wednesday, 2.00), I have to say I don't buy into all the talk of Aran Concerto being the nap of the meeting. To me, he'd had enough when he got to the last 100 yards in Navan and if Catch Me or my horse Silverburn gives him something to think about up the hill, he might not have a whole lot in reply. I'll have a few other Nicholls horses worth keeping an eye on. I think Taranis will run into a place in the Ryanair Chase (Thursday, 2.35), although if both My Way De Solzen and Monet's Garden go in it, everyone else will probably be racing for third. For what it's worth, I think My Way De Solzen will win whichever race Alan King decides to put him in, be it this one or the Arkle.

As for Willie Mullins's horses, I like the look of Mad Fish in the Bumper (Wednesday, 5.20). I've always been a fan of his since he arrived in the yard and even though I have to warn you that I always seem to pick the wrong one when Willie has three or four bumper horses, this one seems the best of them to me.

Other bits and pieces to keep in mind.

New Little Bric has a real chance in the Jewson (Thursday, 2.00), while Black Harry is more an each way bet in the Brit Insurance Hurdle (Friday, 2.35). Saintsaire in the Grand Annual and Ouninpohja in the County Hurdle (Friday, 4.40 and 5.20) could both very well win but my advice is to bet on them now because they'll more than likely go off at much skinnier prices on Friday than they are today.

And finally, if you can find decent odds for Ireland to have less than seven winners, take them. I just can't see us doing as well as we have the past two years.