THE chances of a property market crash is now greater than 50/50, according to a leading economist.

Dr John Fitzgerald, of the Economic and Social Research Institute, provides this scary prognosis in the latest issue of a new personal finance magazine fronted by Eddie Hobbs, which hit the news stands this week.

The article, appearing in Yo u and Your Money, follows up a prediction made by Fitzgerald just over a year ago when he called the likelihood of the bubble bursting at 50/50. Asked whether he stood over that prognosis, Dr Fitzgerald replied:

"The property market certainly hasn't gone down. If anything, it is even more exposed."

More worrying is the basis of John's reasoning. He's actually not too bothered about the things that most property doomsayers shout from the rooftops - prices going through the roof, stamp duty etc. He actually feels the market can sustain those "hits". What worries him is the chances of a global downturn triggered by a US recession leading to widespread job losses.

Add soaring interest rates to climbing unemployment and it's not too hard to envisage the whole house of cards coming tumbling down.

John's prediction was poohpoohed as too pessimistic by some other economists. But in the week that his latest statement is published guess what hit the headlines?

1) Concern over worsening job losses.

2)A stock market collapse midweek on the back of? a possible US recession.

Of course most estate agents, including John's brother Mark of Sherry Fitzgerald fame, will say that we are in the midst of a soft-landing with prices "steadying" this year.

But with fairly ordinary suburban semi-ds now trading for a million, standing still represents a big loss in real terms thanks to the inflation spiral.

Inflation is running at 4.8% so if the price of your one million euro pad stays the same for a year, it is really down by 4.8% - or Euro48,000.

Investors are not going to stick around in a market where they are losing 50,000 smackers every year on fairly ordinary homes.

The property market isn't the only thing screwed up by the Government letting inflation get out of control.

Inflation of 4.8%-plus has knocked the stuffing out of the savings market. Banks are falling over themselves to advertise increasing interest rates.

Ulster Bank this week came up with a 4.25% deposit account - after First Active offered 4% for deposits.

These deals might be an improvement on previous offerings and very competitive but, thanks to the inflation spiral, they are not much incentive to save. What's the point in putting money away when your money is literally losing value? You would be better off spending it.

Beware of extremely high interest rate offers - they are usually very short term deals.

This week Permanent TSB came out with a new current account paying 10% interest on your cash. Immediately AIB topped this by saying it would pay 11%.

Both deals are a bit misleading - and in the case of AIB, a rather ridiculous effort at oneupmanship. Permanent TSB will pay the 10% interest on amounts up to Euro1,500 for the rest of the year. In effect, that means you get, at the very most, a bit over Euro120.

AIB's 11% offer - topping TSB's by 1% - applies for just three months max on sums of up to Euro1,500. In other words, it's a sweetener worth a little over forty quid at most for switching to it. Big deal.

These offers appear to be marketing-led, relying on an eye-catching interest rate that is in reality short-lived and inappropriate. They hope that na�ve or desperate journos might pick up on them as "ground-breaking" new offers.

A spokesman for TSB says that the bank has introduced 4% interest on balances. This is in fact the "real deal" on offer here and one that should be welcomed. As for the 10%, he says, "we've made clear that we're introducing it as an introductory offer to raise awareness about the initiative and reward early movers."

However, a more straightforward and rewarding way to do this sort of offer would be Ulster Bank's sweetener of Euro150 for switching over to its no-fees current account.

Adviser John Lowe of Providence Finance Services says:

"These [short-term high interest deals] only serve to confuse the public."

He calculates that someone leaving a grand in the AIB account for three months would earn a total of Euro27.50 - less DIRT, which makes it Euro22.

"But if they leave it for the whole year in Anglo at their new 30-day notice (4.25%) they will receive Euro34 after DIRT. . .

would you be bothered ?"

However, he does recommend AIB, Halifax and Anglo Irish to savers after all three banks increased interest on their regular savings products to around 7%.

"I do think those deposit takers with the 2 year regular saver product are winners."

You can salt away Euro750 a month max with Halifax, Euro1,000 with Anglo and Euro300 with AIB.

Now these products are all real loss leaders !

BEST BUYS BEST HOMES FOR CASH AIB have upped their AER for regular savers to 7.1% for amounts between Euro10 and Euro300 a month.

For large deposits RaboDirect is offering 4.75% on amounts up to Euro10,000. Then 3.7% on amounts to Euro1m and 2.7% on any amount over Euro1m.

BEST CREDIT CARDS National Irish are offering an interest rate of 10.5% after "ve months of free interest.

Tesco offers 0% on balance transfers for six months and 14.9% on purchases thereafter.

Halifax offering 0% on balance transfers for "rst six months and 0% on purchases for same period. Afterwards, 9.5% on purchases.

BEST BANK FOR YOUR MONEY Permanent TSB, National Irish Bank and Ulster Bank all offer no fees on current accounts, even when overdrawn. Keep Euro500 in your account to avoid charges.

BEST STOCKBROKING CHARGES Sharewatch for buying and selling Irish and British shares. Euro50 for trades up to Euro15,000.

Minimum charge of Euro30 and commision 0.3% BEST MORTGAGE SWITCHER Halifax will pay Euro1,000 towards the cost of legal fees associated with moving your mortgage to them and pay up to Euro150 to cover valuation fees.

Legal fees contribution must be repaid if you move mortgage from Halifax within "ve years.

National Irish Bank will pay Euro600 towards fees.