IT IS 60 years since the electorate was asked to endorse a politician as taoiseach who they knew was unlikely to serve out a full term in office. Eamon de Valera was 75 years old when Ireland went to the polls in March 1957. The longtime Fianna F�il leader was nearly blind and unable to read. It was widely assumed the election campaign would be his final contest. Despite this uncertainty, the voters returned Fianna F�il with a nine-seat majority. Then just over two years later, de Valera shuffled out of Government Buildings with Se�n Lemass taking over as taoiseach.

Only the most reckless with their money would bet on Fianna F�il emerging from the forthcoming general election with an overall majority. But, just like in 1957, the party is entering a contest with a leader who, if returned to government, will not serve out his full term as taoiseach. Ahern has said this will be his final general election campaign.

In the forthcoming D�il contest, the opposition may well pose the question - 'Vote for Bertie but who will you get?'

Naturally, the issue will be irrelevant in terms of the office of taoiseach if Fianna F�il polls poorly, loses seats and ends up in opposition. In such a scenario, Ahern will probably be sitting on his party's backbenches next October. But even if Fianna F�il leads the next government, the leadership issue will not disappear. Then, from the day Ahern is re-elected as taoiseach, the question of his retirement date will linger. The situation will be similar to the speculation that has dogged Tony Blair about his exit from 10 Downing Street since he said the last Westminster election would be his final contest.

The succession race in Fianna F�il is a topic of conversation in Leinster House. Ahern's colleagues know that he will be gone either this summer or at some stage over the next three years, probably before the end of 2010. Four names trip off tongues when talk turns to 'life after Bertie'. Brian Cowen is the frontrunner with Miche�l Martin currently his nearest opponent. Mary Hanafin is an outsider with Dermot Ahern seen as the most likely compromise candidate. From conversations with a collection of Fianna F�il figures last week, no other name was mentioned. It will be a race between two solicitors - Cowen and Ahern- and two teachers - Hanafin and Martin.

Three issues emerge in terms of the leadership issue - the timing of the succession, the face on the poster and the importance of the urban vote. "If we have a bad election, but provided it's not too bad, then Brian Cowen would take over, " one Fianna F�il TD said. This view is widely shared in party circles.

None of the other contenders can match Cowen's ministerial record while an early leadership contest would probably hurt Mary Hanafin most.

The Dun Laoghaire TD has less than three years at cabinet in just one department. Cowen is the poster boy of the Fianna F�il parliamentary party and is widely admired. Concerns do exist, however, about the Offaly man's ability to deliver success with an increasingly urban electorate.

"Will Cowen work in Dublin?"

one TD asked.

While Cowen and Martin are the two front-runners, the self-interest of other senior Fianna F�il figures could propel Hanafin or Ahern into the fray. In addition, the results of any opinion polls commissioned during a leadership contest could change the dynamic of the campaign. "If we lose the next election heavily or there is a view the party needs to refocus, then Hanafin as the first woman leader might offer a positive image, " one TD speculated.

The makeup of the electorate -Fianna F�il TDs, senators and MEPs - will also have a bearing. Any new TDs elected this summer may be more open to alternatives to Cowen, who has built a strong support base with the current crop of D�il deputies and senators. Of course, Bertie Ahern may simply change his mind, especially if he wins a hattrick of general elections. "When the time comes, the guy might be tempted to stay on, " one party source said. But leaving aside an Ahern u-turn on his exit plans, the forthcoming general election contest looks set, as of now, to be 'The Election of the Three Taoisigh'. It may be Enda Kenny. It may be Bertie Ahern. And it may just be whoever Fianna F�il picks as its next leader.

THE CONTENDERS:

Brian Cowen BORN in Tullamore in January 1960, Cowen studied law at UCD and qualified as a solicitor.

He is married with two children. Only 24 when first was elected to the D�il, he has been a formidable vote-getter, topping the poll in five of the six D�il elections he has contested and consistently helping to deliver three seats out of five in Laois-Offaly.

Cowen had to wait for Charlie Haughey's departure to secure ministerial promotion but since 1992 his career has been on a near continuous upwards trajectory. Minister for labour from February 1992 to January 1993 after which he served as minister for transport, energy and communications until December 1994. Cowen spent most of Fianna F�il's time in opposition from 1994 to 1997 as his party's agriculture spokesman. On return to government, Cowen was appointed as health minister. In 2000 he was promoted to minister for foreign affairs and in 2004, he became minister for finance.

In Fianna F�il terms, Cowen is royalty.

"Fianna F�il blood flows in his veins, " one of his supporters once declared.

His has a very strong support base among current members of the Fianna F�il parliamentary party but his backers are largely drawn from rural constituencies. His critics speak of the return of the 'Country and Western' brigade that was to the fore during the Reynolds leadership. Cowen is admired for his willingness to battle for Fianna F�il in public and his antagonism to the main opposition parties. The Offaly man has a wicked sense of humour and his fondness for socialising means he has shared a night out with many who will vote for the next party leader.

The current Ombudsman, Emily O'Reilly, once scathingly described Cowen as "the Anna Kournikova of Irish politics" when assessing his ministerial record. Cowen stood down the nurses when he was minister for health but the whole reform of the system has been left to his successors. He famously described the health department as "Angola" but emerged relatively unscathed from his stint which may have been his biggest achievement. He was centrally involved in the Northern peace process while minister for foreign affairs but the main action was with the Taoiseach. As finance minister, his three budgets have been conservative but highly political in tackling potential problems for the government. For all his long experience, it is hard to point to a big decision or lasting achievement that could be placed in Cowen's legacy box. What Fianna F�il would be getting as leader with Cowen is an astute political operator but with uncertainty about what he would do in the number one position.

Sunday Tribune Rating: The frontrunner but favourites do not always cross the line first.

Paddy Power says: 4/9 favourite Miche�l Martin BORN in Cork in August 1960, Martin studied at UCC and worked as a secondary school teacher.

He is married with three children. He "rst won a seat in Cork South Central in 1989. Tight vote management has seen Martin deliver three seats out of "ve in the last two general elections. Martin got his "rst break when Bertie Ahern became party leader and appointed him education spokesman. Three years later, he was minister for education. In a cabinet reshuf"e in January 2000, Martin moved to the health department.

He spent over four and a half years as health minister before becoming minister for enterprise, trade and employment in September 2004.

Widely perceived as a 'safe pair of hands', the Corkman was a hugely popular education minister although there was little that was radical about his decision-making. As health minister he promised a radical overhaul of the system but despite commissioning numerous consultant reports, he never took on the various vested interests. He has been a low-key enterprise minister and in recent months has had to deal with a series of high-pro"le job losses. To his credit, Martin pushed through the smoking ban and more recently abolished the groceries order.

But he has not shown himself to be a risk-taker and several Fianna F�il TDs last week criticised his conservative nature. His Cork base gives him a strong platform in Fianna F�il which, if he secures the backing of some Dublin TDs, would easily see him as the most serious challenger to Cowen.

Sunday Tribune Rating: Has good backing but may not offer a suf"cient difference from the incumbent.

Paddy Power says: 10/3 second favourite Mary Hanafin BORN in Thurles in June 1959, Hanafin studied at St Patrick's College and worked as a secondary school teacher. Her husband, Eamon Leahy, died suddenly in 2003. She first ran unsuccessfully for the D�il in 1989 in Dublin South-East and then concentrated on building a base within Fianna F�il, being elected party treasurer in 1993. By 1997, she had switched constituencies to Dun Laoghaire. She topped the poll in the constituency in 2002, and through good vote management secured the election of her running mate, Barry Andrews.

Although she represents one of the most liberal constituencies in the country, Hanafin comes from a conservative background. She has, however, successfully managed to avoid becoming embroiled in contentious subjects. Bertie Ahern initially left Hanafin on the backbenches, but she was made a junior minister with responsibility for children in 2000. After the June 2002 general election, she was promoted as government chief whip. Her break into cabinet only came in September 2004 when she was appointed minister for education.

Hanafin is more popular outside Fianna F�il than she is with her party colleagues.

There is some resentment that she is one of the few newer TDs to have benefited under Ahern's conservative promotions regime.

This fact may, however, help her in a leadership contest dominated by opinion poll results and discussions on radio phonein programmes. As education minister she has had a strong and largely positive profile.

She has shown an astute political bent and the expanded school building programme has allowed her bring good news to many local TDs, although she may come under pressure in the forthcoming general election campaign in defending the continued high pupil/teacher ratios in primary schools.

Hanafin is the outsider but in the right circumstances - a leadership election in 2010 - she might just be sufficiently well placed if her colleagues decide that Cowen and Martin are not a significant enough departure from the Bertie Ahern regime.

Sunday Tribune Rating: Needs time and another ministerial job.

Paddy Power says: 6/1 Dermot Ahern BORN in Drogheda in February 1955, Ahern studied law at UCD and worked as a solicitor.

Married with two children, he was "rst elected to the D�il in 1987. He was assistant government chief whip from 1988 for almost three years. He re-emerged as a senior player after Bertie Ahern was elected leader in late 1994 serving as party whip until his appointment as minister for social, community and social affairs in June 1997. After "ve years Ahern was moved to communications and natural resources. His real break came in September 2004 when he was promoted as minister for foreign affairs.

Throughout his political career, Ahern has been a safe pair of hands. As minister for foreign affairs, he has been more high pro"le, playing an active role in relation to Northern Ireland.

Mentioned as an 'alternative choice' by several Fianna F�il "gures, Ahern could become a compromise candidate in a parliamentary party divided over the merits of Cowen and Martin and unsure about Hana"n.

Sunday Tribune Rating: Remember Jack Lynch.

Paddy Power says: 6/1