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Fenian throwbacks in Iran
DAVID HORGAN

 


2 March, Amman: discussions on Iraqi projects WEopt for drinks and a Beni-Hani restaurant to agree issues. As relationships develop, people seek to increase the size of the meal by working together. Yet those with practical experience typically have limited input into policy-making.

The Iraqi government has developed a reasonable new petroleum law and is sensibly building consensus.

We had a similar debate in Ireland about whether to offer zero (now 12.5%) tax for foreign manufacturers. We did and Ireland is now the second-richest European country in GDP terms per capita. The Irish won because the investors won.

Emigration ended and now people return and even immigrate. The northern blood-letting ended and the country is gradually being harmonised.

No law is perfect. Politics is about compromise. Any law will be criticised. The criticism comes down to the understandable feeling that Blair and Bush should not be rewarded for an aggressive war. But British and US companies are longterm losers from the conflict. The dead cannot be raised - we can only avoid further casualties.

The debate over the law ignores the impact of the latest technology:

currently they target only 25% oil recovery on reservoirs that could yield maybe 50%. There's a huge payback for incentivising friendly international operators.

5 March, Clontarf Walking from the Dart to the office I see a helmeted cyclist stunned and bleeding. A pedestrian seeks to disentangle a boy's foot from the spokes of the front wheel. The youngster is brave but we struggle to release his foot with the minimum of pain. Instinctively we focus on the child and leave the adult - though I first had to remove the man's foot.

The spokes won't bend or break and there is no grease to slip the boy's foot free.

Suddenly a tradesman who doesn't speak much English produces a wire-cutter and snaps the spokes. Sometimes decisive action works best. We remove the shoe. His foot is lacerated but doesn't appear broken. An ambulance appears and we persuade both casualties to use it.

The crisis over, we're suddenly embarrassed by our shared emergency and go our separate ways.

5-9 March, Dublin:

meeting on Iran There's nothing like physically meeting for a meeting of minds.

Emails and piecemeal conversations conversations can confuse. Humans still react to personal contact. The interaction of different disciplines and experience yields better decisions.

Looking at satellite images of Iran, we're struck by how much mountain and desert there is. Doubtless the western military are looking at the same imagery. Hopefully they translate the pictures into an appreciation of challenging reality - the desert can absorb a lot of blood.

The US invading Iran would be like the Fenians invading Canada: the IRB conspired with Qu�be�ois dissidents to liberate Canada from British rule. In 1867, 20,000 IrishAmericans, many of them Civil War veterans, invaded with the tacit connivance of the Jackson White House. They were brave, professional and gave crown forces a bloody nose, but the Fenians withdrew when the US halted their resupply across the border.

Most Canadians resented their partial liberation and Canada remained under the crown, which granted dominion status. The federal government arranged free (one-way) rail transport home for the Fenian heroes. Wisely the British settled outstanding disputes with the wily President Jackson. Would that he had remained in the White House!

11-15 March, Istanbul A technology transfer week with the Iraqi oil ministry. In geology there's no 'right answer', just different interpretations, with the drill bit being the ultimate arbiter.

Normally geologists and geophysicists live separate lives:

geologists are interested in rocks, geophysicists think what happens on computers is the real world. We seek to bridge the disciplines.

Ten ministry executives - and our own nine - appear with few problems. Effort goes into making things seem easy.

Two Iraqi of"cials were delayed en route. Our fixer is influential with the security apparatus. With a midnight trip to Amman airport, problems are solved.

Faced with two million refugees, it's not surprising that Iraq's neighbours suffer indigestion. In 1970, Palestinians nearly toppled the kingdom, before expulsion to Lebanon, whose sectarian balance was then upset.

It's the most educated and energetic who flee - we should welcome them, accepting transitional costs as investment. Had De Valera welcomed 1930s Jewish migrants we would have had banking, scientific and entrepreneurial flair to launch the Celtic Tiger earlier. Instead protectionism plunged us into a 1950s depression.

Material seemed easier as the day progressed - was this the eroding effects of the previous night's alcohol or deposits of new knowledge?

Communication is as important as content. If you can't explain you don't understand. But excessive detail can distract.

I revert to mischievous form when returning to classrooms: it's hard to keep a straight face when geologists speak of rocks like 'dickite' and 'buddingtonite', besides 'doubly plunging natural traps'.

Evidence in rocks shows many periods of global warming and cooling, of surging and falling sea levels. There are complex feedback loops, but the earth's changing orbits seem the main factor.

Technology can protect the environment: Canadians use satellites to track icebergs and wave patterns to direct ships onto the safest and fastest route, saving fuel at less risk.

People who have retired from their initial careers can be resourceful: Our geological chief is a former TCD professor and has the knack of exciting listeners while speaking slowly. The trick is to limit modules to about 20 minutes - the effective limit of human concentration. You can listen for longer to familiar material, but challenging new stuff requires effort.

Our chief geologist is a native Arabic speaker, so we have an excuse to repeat the message in a slightly different way. Their 80 years of shared experience gives them perspective as well as depth. We treat computers, GPS and mobile phones as indispensable - they remember when calculation and communications were difficult and imprecise.

Real wisdom gives them humility - they realise how much remains uncertain. Only the inexperienced believe they're 'masters of the universe'. We learn how to think, but not what to think. It is a subversive idea for people from rigid organisations.

The Iraqis ask us to sign their certificates in Irish, an unconscious contribution to Seachtain na Gaeilge.




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