You can now say the same about Donegal. This might seem an untimely declaration, given the All Ireland club final saga is an Armagh-Kerry affair, but football is on the verge of a power shift. The Big Three are all vulnerable, in transition, and very likely, all in decline, with at least three other legitimate contenders ready to pounce.

Of course, so much will depend on that old reliable, desire (something that should favour Donegal, Dublin, Mayo and Cork), and that other constant, inside scoring power (something that seriously militates against Cork). More than any other year though it could hinge on which side best copes at spots nearly every contender is struggling at . . . full back and centr-forward.

Brian McGuigan underwent keyhole surgery last week and looks like being out for another few months with a recurring ankle problem on the leg he broke last May; when he'll be back is one thing, and if he'll get back anything like the player he was, something else again. Today, in Limerick, Stephen O'Neill wears 11. Mickey Harte's decision might have been in the hope the change of scenery will help O'Neill break out of a slump, but also the knowledge that it was at centre-forward where O'Neill won that All Star as a rookie in 2001. He could win one there again in 2007, if McGuigan doesn't return, but that would leave Owen Mulligan as Tyrone's only proven inside scoring threat, only two years after they had three.

Ciaran McDonald is being given all the time he needs by John O'Mahony to get that back right, and has been spotted working out regularly in the Silver Springs gym in Cork, where his road construction job has taken him in recent months. Even if he is fit for Galway on May 20 though, he'll hardly be match fit.

Diarmuid Marsden's return means Joe Kernan could be looking at an inside line of McDonnell, McConville and Marsden for the championship opener against Donegal, which should help compensate for the absence of Ronan Clarke, who will hardly be fully recovered from a recurring back problem before August. Outside that line though there is little scoring power, especially from 11, with John McEntee's inter-county future undecided.

Donegal have a litany of forward options . . . against Tyrone, Adrian Sweeney, Christy Toye, Michael Doherty, Leon Thompson, Ryan Bradley and Michael Hegarty were all on the bench . . . but Hegarty is undoubtedly their best number 11, and he's out of form and favour.

Cork have no fulcrum in attack, with Conor McCarthy's game and confidence seemingly in irreversible meltdown, while Dublin continue to rotate at that spot. Alan Brogan has been playing serious minutes there lately but has a tendency to drop too deep.

Dublin have enough athletes to track back; they need a footballer like Brogan playing in the opposing half to make or take scores.

Then there's full-back. There are still some quality number threes out there . . . Barry Owens in Fermanagh, Johnny McCarthy in Limerick, and Darren Fay, probably the last of the great archetypal number threes, back with Meath . . . but those sides aren't going to be playing football in August.

Of the top 10 counties, there's only three who can safely predict who their full back will be this summer. Francie for Armagh. Paddy Campbell, for Donegal. Finian Hanley for Galway.

But the others?

The temptation is to say the Donaghy factor has changed everything.

Jack O'Connor predicted it would last autumn. "If Donaghy stays healthy and keeps his feet on the ground he'll transform Gaelic football, " he said.

"Other counties now will be out to find their Donaghys."

He's right. Wicklow have. Michael Cussen and Michael Quirke, both 6'5", have played 14 for Cork and Kerry.

Ross Carr drafted in hurler Gareth 'Magic' Johnson because his height as well as his nickname resembled a basketballer. Dublin even tried out Eric Miller there before Christmas.

The Donaghy factor can be overstated though.

For one, stopping a Donaghy is a team effort as much as an individual one. You don't think Tyrone would let Donaghy go one-on-one like Mayo did last September, do you? John O'Mahony didn't when Connacht denied Munster and Donaghy last October.

Two, not every target man has the athleticism and football of Donaghy.

And three, those full forwards who do aren't necessarily over six foot. A full back is still as likely to encounter a Brendan Devenney or Declan Browne as a Donaghy or Clarke.

That's the dilemma Mayo are in.

James Kilcullen is the kind of combative physical player Mayo had been seeking yet not producing this decade, and had a fine debut on Quirke last month, but he didn't have the guile or lateral quickness for Devenney. With Padraic Joyce beginning to tune up nicely for 20 May, that has to concern John O'Mahony.

Dublin's Niall O'Shea and Tyrone's Cormac McGinley couldn't cope with Devenney either, and are consequently likely to be only role players this summer. Full back has been a familiar problem for both counties since Paddy Christie and Chris Lawn vied for the full-back All Star spot in 2002. Dublin have now gone with Ross McConnell at number three, and while he has aerial presence, it'll take the rest of the league to see whether he can develop the discipline, pace and shadowing skills to keep forwards outside. Today will be Joe McMahon's first start at full back for Tyrone since that 2005 All Ireland final. He has the size and football to make it work but he's never had a sustained run there to prove himself as a legitimate, long-term full back.

Kerry are confident Tom O'Sullivan will follow in the tradition of Seamus Moynihan and Mike McCarthy, two other quality defenders who reshaped their game to guard the square. He certainly has the pace and sheer stickiness for a Devenney, who he'd have taken up as a corner man before. But should, say, the Cussen experiment work for Cork, he'll need a lot of support from out the field and the corners.

Either way, O'Sullivan's redeployment means Kerry are without a third proven inside marker, something that could cost them against an Armagh or Dublin.

Cork look well equipped at the edge of the square, with Graham Canty and now, Michael Shields, to choose from, but even Cork could struggle there.

They did last August, when Canty was out injured. Billy Morgan would love to release a fully-fit Canty out the field but against Kerry they'd probably need both Shields and Canty inside for the little and large threat of Gooch and Donaghy . . . and so much of Cork's season is defined by Kerry.

Teams are clawing for more than points, survival, confidence these coming days. The contenders are looking for men to lead their attack and stem others. Look out yourself for the threeeleven factor in the coming weeks. It could well decide the All Ireland.