IS THE end nigh for the PDs? It's a question that has been posed many times before in the party's 21-year history, and each time, the PDs have succeeded in answering the question with a resounding 'no'. The party has fought five general election since its foundation and in each one, has managed to deliver a result.

In three of those elections . . .1987, 1992 and 2002 . . . the party confounded the critics to win a seat total regarded as impossible before the campaigns began. The party did have two bad election results . . . 1989 and 1997 . . . but on both occasions, they still won enough seats to end up sitting around the cabinet table with Fianna Fail.

Five years ago, there was no shortage of predictions of the party's demise in the upcoming general election. Of their four TDs, Des O'Malley was retiring and it was uncertain as to whether Bobby Molloy would run. With most pundits betting on a Fianna Fail-Labour government, the future looked far from rosy.

Yet come election time, the PDs doubled its seat numbers and ended up back in government with an extra cabinet seat.

That remarkable feat has presumably resulted in a reluctance this time around to write off the party's chances, but there are good reasons for believing that the PDs have never been more vulnerable than they are now.

In 2002, despite what seemed a bleak scenario, the party had a number of factors working in its favour. Firstly, the recruitment of former IFA president Tom Parlon, and the return of Michael McDowell, gave an enormous confidence boost to the party; secondly, the party could point to five years of genuine achievements in government (tax cuts, the introduction of tax credits and the minimum wage and taxi deregulation); and thirdly, Fine Gael were in meltdown. History shows us that when Fine Gael does badly, the PDs do well, and the party . . . not least Michael McDowell . . .successfully presented itself as the only credible alternative to a Fianna Fail overall majority.

None of those factors is present five years on. Despite promises of big-name candidates to come, only one . . . Colm O'Gorman . . . has been delivered, and he faces a major uphill task to win a seat in Wexford. Not only do the PDs not have the same impressive list of achievements to point to as five years ago, but their two ministers are in two hugely difficult departments . . . health and justice . . . where bad news predominates.

Mary Harney's decision to volunteer for the health job was no doubt brave and admirable, but in cold political terms, it's hard not to believe that she made a mistake by not taking the transport ministry in 2002 and staying there for the five years.

Meanwhile, Fine Gael's chances of winning enough seats to form a government may be in doubt, but there will be no repeat of its 2002 disaster, and the main opposition party is likely to gain a minimum of 10 seats. Fine Gael has ambitions to make gains in seven of the eight constituencies where the PDs currently hold seats.

To make matters worse, the PDs also have to contend with a buoyant Green Party. Four PD seats are in constituencies where there is also a Green deputy. In each of those four constituencies, the Green seat looks rock solid. And one of the Greens' main target seats is in Galway West, where any gain is most likely to come at the expense of PD TD Noel Grealish.

As of now, only two of the party's eight seats look safe. Michael McDowell will be returned in Dublin South East and, despite suggestions of bad poll results, Mary Harney should be okay in Dublin Midwest. But, after that, all bets are off.

It would be folly to write off Liz O'Donnell, but she is up against it in Dublin South.

With four of the five seats in the constituency set to go to Fianna Fail (2), the Greens (1) and Fine Gael (1), it is between O'Donnell, FG and Labour for the final seat. If the FG-Labour pact is to count for anything, it has to result in a seat gain for the Rainbow here.

In Dun Laoghaire, Fiona O'Malley, despite being a formidable campaigner, has a major battle to hold off a challenge from Fine Gael for her seat. Mae Sexton looks a long-shot to hold her seat in Longford-Westmeath; while Noel Grealish and Tom Parlon both fall into the 50-50 category (at best) in their constituencies. Of its TDs outside Dublin, junior minister Tim O'Malley in Limerick East looks the most likely to be returned . . . but again, nothing is guaranteed.

If, come May or June, the party is returned with just three TDs and is out of government, it is hard to see a future for the party that has largely dictated economic policy in the state over the past two decades.

Of course, this is very much a worstcase scenario. Who knows what the election campaign will throw up? And, if the PDs can hold five of its seats and, like 1997, is in a position to form a government with Fianna Fail with the support of independents . . . still a very possible outcome, particularly if Fine Gael falters in the run-in to the election and McDowell hits his stride in the campaign . . . then the party will once again have fought the wolves from the door.

It is certainly far too early to write the PDs' obituary. The party has proved the prophets of doom wrong before and may yet do so again, but there can be no doubting the size of the challenge that lies ahead.