THOSE brave enough to invest in what are euphemistically called 'oil exploration stocks' are easy enough to spot. They are either caressing a new Ferrari down a sunny coastal road or seeking shelter from the rain under a cardboard box on a city centre pavement.

Just like people who try to make racehorses into stallions, they spend their time in search of precious liquids that will keep them in the high life for the rest of their days.

When they find a gusher the cash can flow endlessly but if they miss, the downside can be severe.

This time last year the endless speculative drilling of Coolmore Stud had again seemed to hit the jackpot.

George Washington, a son of Danehill, was about to light up a drab flat season with equal measures of brilliance and bafflement. The brilliance came on the days of his imposing victories in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and the Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot. The bafflement was a combination of uncertain absences and behavioural quirks that marked out this horse as an elevator that didn't go all the way to the top floor. Even so, by the end of last season he had done enough to confirm that Coolmore had indeed found a gusher and Gorgeous George was packed off to stud to reap the lifetime of pleasures that await well-bred colts that can run faster than their contemporaries. Or so it seemed until a couple of weeks ago. To put it delicately, as the mating season developed it became increasingly clear that George was not quite cutting the mustard in the breeding shed . . .

the well turned out to be dry after all. He is far from the first champion thoroughbred to suffer from fertility shortcomings. The great Cigar, twice USA horse of the year, was completely useless at stud.

Coolmore's reaction was to once again demonstrate the cold steel of capitalism that underlies their organisation.

They immediately returned him to Ballydoyle to resume his racing career while Holy Roman Emperor, second favourite for the 2000 Guineas, was redirected from the gallops to plug some of the gaps in George Washington's book of mares.

It was a daring move. It is unusual for a horse to return successfully to the racecourse from stud duties and equally rare for a healthy three-yearold to be retired before measuring himself against his classic generation, but there is little doubt that there is a flip chart in some Coolmore conference room that exhaustively lists the pros and cons of the strategy.

The best upside is this. It subsequently emerged that George had actually put about a half dozen mares in foal and is probably just 'sub fertile' or as one wag put it, "he just didn't fancy the ugly ones".

There also remains the possibility that he will win more big races this summer, enhance his reputation, and all being well, resume at stud next spring at a higher covering fee. Holy Roman Emperor will reduce the loss for breeders whose mares were disappointed by Gorgeous George this spring, and it may even prove to be a better long term career move than chasing Teofilio's backside around the racecourses of Europe for the next six months.

The downside, however, is equally steep. George Washington's mentality is notoriously fragile and it will be intriguing to see what effect a few months of intensive breeding has on his attitude to racing. Aidan O'Brien spoke earlier this week of the challenges his horse faces to adjust. "We will have to work once again at getting his mind unravelled. Since he came back from Coolmore he has been like a horse with five legs and we have to get him thinking that he can't cover everything he sees."

If he is not successful on the course this summer and the fertility problem is not decisively resolved, Coolmore may be left with a diminished sire that many breeders will be unlikely to risk sending their mares to again. There will also be a sniff of doubt over how good Holy Roman Emperor may have been, which could affect his value as a stallion.

Another problem for O'Brien is that he had invested most of his early season hopes exclusively in Holy Roman Emperor and doesn't have any realistic alternatives for the early season classics. "I was concentrating on Holy Roman Emperor and had put too many eggs in one basket.

Maybe I wasn't watching all the other balls enough." An unfortunate choice of words in the circumstances but it will be fascinating to watch how he deals with the challenge.

With Saddlers Wells nearing retirement, and Danehill recently deceased, Coolmore urgently needs some more expensive blue-chip stallions and it could be a long hot summer of exploration for George Washington.