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Few votes won or lost yet . . . all still to play for on election trail
Kevin Rafter Political Editor

           


RTE did the main political parties a significant favour in drawing up the television schedule for the Saturday evenings when the various party leaders were due to deliver their main speeches at their 2007 conference gatherings. With the exception of Gerry Adams, who opted for a 5pm to 6pm timing, all the other leaders chose to deliver their keynote addresses in the half-hour slot after 8.30pm. Last year, the national broadcaster scheduled its big-audience Winning Streak game show on RTE Two at the time when the country's leading politicians were speaking live on RTE One. The viewers voted with their remote controls for the National Lottery show and programmes on other channels that were politics-free zones.

This year, however, with keener interest in politics ahead of the general election Winning Streak was given a later time slot and the competition on RTE Two was far less viewer friendly. The result: a significant increase in audience interest in what Bertie Ahern, Enda Kenny and the other party leaders had to say to their conference gatherings.

The Fianna Fail leader was watched by 270,000 people while his Fine Gael counterpart attracted an audience of 256,000 viewers. However, in terms of the percentage of the overall television audience on their respective Saturday evenings last month both leaders managed the same audience share . . . 20% . . . of the overall television audience.

A few weeks earlier, Pat Rabbitte had 266,000 viewers (18% share), Michael McDowell 180,000 viewers (16%) and Trevor Sargent 179,000 (11.5%). All these leaders opted for the live television slot at 8.30pm. The alternative schedule position offered by RTE was between 5pm and 6pm. Only Gerry Adams took this option but it gave the Sinn Fein leader only 88,000 viewers and a 12% audience share.

It is likely that only a handful of journalists and a collection of diehard political junkies sat through all of the six leaders' speeches. Medals should be minted for this crazy gang who heard Ahern wanting to take the Next Steps Forward and Kenny looking to make a Contract for a Better Ireland. Rabbitte asked the electorate to Make a Change with Labour while McDowell focused on New Ireland, New Opportunities.

Like the slogans, the leaders' speeches were of varying quality. The main party leaders are the two who struggle most with set-piece public speaking events.

Neither Kenny nor Ahern ever seem comfortable in front of the auto-cue when a keynote speech has to be delivered. Rabbitte is the only natural public speaker among his peers plus he can entertain with his biting wit. McDowell can deliver a script even if his debating school style is not very TV-friendly. Adams is monotone and Sargent takes his lead from those howler letters that feature in the Harry Potter novels.

As far as the six speeches delivered in February and March go, Ahern's was by far the most comprehensive speech in terms of substantial policy information but he gaffed in his handling of his ardfheis announcement. The Fianna Fail leader failed to lay the ground beforehand and his mixed signals did not sit well with the media pack. Prudence was the promised theme but instead Ahern gave a 26-minute overview of his party's general-election manifesto. There was genuine surprise at the scale of the policy agenda that the Fianna Fail leader laid out in his address.

A week later, Enda Kenny also promised to spend billions over the next five years but there was little new in his policy agenda as much of it was the culmination of announcements from Fine Gael over the last 18 months. Kenny cleverly used Ahern's error as an opportunity to reopen the debate about the promises of 1997 and 2002 that have not been fully delivered.

The narrow policy differences between the main parties were also evident in the various conference speeches. For example, on taxation, Rabbitte, as the first leader to address a party conference in 2007, stumped his opponents by committing his party to a two-percentage-point reduction in the lower income tax rate (from 20% to 18%) over the next two years. The move saw Labour determine the political agenda for weeks, with the PDs, in particular, left flapping with a hysterical response about "auction politics". The all-too easily dismissive "auction politics" phrase masks the fact that elections are supposed to be about promises and pledges.

Rabbitte's tax figure became the reference point against which all the other parties benchmarked their income-tax plans. Kenny said every taxpayer would pay less income tax under a Fine Gaelled government and he implicitly tied his party to the Labour promise to reduce the lower rate of income tax from 20% to 18% by 2009. McDowell matched Rabbitte on the lower income tax rate reductions but also promised to cut the top rate from 41% to 38% over the next five years. Ahern gave the most detail on his party's election plans for tax. It was a multi-billion euro package involving bringing the standard rate down to 18%, cutting the higher rate to 40%, PRSI rate reductions and indexing tax bands and credits to wage increases. The other parties will probably follow this lead when they publish their election manifestos. Despite Fianna Fail reticence on stamp duty, there is little to separate Fine Gael and the PDs on changes to the regime. Both parties want lower rates while Fine Gael plans to abolish the tax for "almost all first-time buyers" while the PDs would exempt this group entirely. Sinn Fein stood apart from the others with Adams favouring higher taxes for high earners and increased taxes on capital gains, property speculation and corporate profits.

The era of the great party conference with warring sides fighting their battles on the platform is long gone. But in the six conferences in the first three months of 2007 at least the main parties attempted to set out their respective stalls for the next five years. The lack of ideological difference was all too evident in the conference speeches. All the leaders approached the main election issues . . . health, crime and education . . . from more or less the same vantage point.

There was little on offer from any individual party that any of their opponents could not agree to accept in government. At most, one in five of the public tuned in. Few votes will have been won or lost. The next few weeks determine which set of promises are most credible.

LEADER DATE TV VIEWERS DELIVERY SURPRISE FACTOR SOUNDBITE RATING Rabbitte 10 Feb 266,000 Very good High with his decision to embrace "We have seen great economic B+ income tax rate cuts. progress but, are you happy?"

Always entertaining, McDowell 17 Feb 180,000 Good Average as he was so much in news "We can't change history but C in the days before his conference. we can change our future."

Predictable.

Sargent 24 Feb 179,000 Poor Average . . . environment tops the "We need action politics, D news agenda but Green leader not auction politics."

fails to sparkle. What's on RTE Two?

Adams 3 Mar 88,000 Dull Low as distracted by Northern "Sinn Fein wants to be in D elections. government in both parts of this island." Post-provo dullness.

Ahern 25 Mar 270,000 Good High as prudence is replaced "Join us in the journey towards a B. . .

by bonanza pledges. stronger, a fairer, a greener and even more prosperous Ireland."

Better than usual.

Kenny 31 Mar 256,000 Good Little new as repeats previously "Last week, another man stood in C+ announced promises. this hall and made 53 promises.

I will give you just one."

Tried very hard, maybe too hard.




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