WHEN Mickey Moran and myself were over Mayo last year, I more than once claimed that Mayo, Donegal and Kerry were the three counties who produce more naturally gifted footballers than anywhere else. Events since have only strengthened that conviction. Kerry are still the team to beat this summer but either Mayo or Donegal could be the team to beat them.
They already have in this league, and they've each beaten Tyrone . . . in Omagh. I'll be the first to say it, both teams have the managers too.
Mickey played a huge part in Derry winning their All Ireland but he was the coach, not the manager. With Galway and Ballinderry, John O'Mahony and Brian McIver have landed All Irelands as managers. That's fuelled their players with a belief they'll deliver again. And while I have some concerns that should bother them, already this year they've made decisions and achieved things which I as a coach have to applaud.
This is probably the first Donegal team to get on a roll which has more a sense of mission than a sense of adventure. In 2002 there was the infamous night when we drew with Dublin and a few of the boys stayed up to go on the town. That was saying "We've overachieved here, " and, after hearing it, Mickey and myself left.
It was the same in 2003 when you had boys getting misty-eyed about the crowds there to greet them in Ballyshannon after they beat Galway in an All Ireland quarterfinal. The following year you had all the hype of going down to Dublin for the Ulster final. Even the team in '92 kind of meandered their way to that All Ireland; training was going poorly early that summer. No team since . . . bar maybe Meath in '96 . . . has taken the approach of seeing how things go and ended up winning an All Ireland, and McIver realises that. Donegal no longer just dream of success; they're geared for success, hooked on a vision.
Even when that self-destructive streak resurrected itself this year, Brian knew how to handle it. Deep down he knows he overreacted this time last year when Kevin Cassidy and Eamonn McGee had those very costly five or six pints; at all times the goal for every manager should be to get his best players onto the pitch.
But he's learned from it, and when a few boys went astray after beating Kerry, Brian dealt with it in-house and kept it in-house.
Three simple sentences can sum up what makes McIver such a good coach.
He will have his team knowing what they have to do. His team will be happy doing it. And they will routinely do it.
They're playing like they're training because he has them training as they'll play. They have a variety of game plans which they're seamlessly able to switch in to, on McIver's beck and call, because they've executed it so often in training.
Take last week against Kildare. They started up front with a system called 'four in a dice' which Mickey and myself used there. You had Brendan Devenney and Colm McFadden as a two-man fullforward line, Christy Toye and Michael Hegarty in the half-forward line, with Brian Roper looping in behind midfield and Ciaran Bonner sitting just in front of it. The moment Devenney went off, they switched to a triangle, with Kevin McMenamin and McFadden inside and Roper as the link at the apex.
Then when Adrian Sweeney came on, they formed another triangle, with Sweeney at the tip playing deeper, as a playmaker. The goal came from that.
They have what I call a core structure, and they're confident and flexible enough to switch to whatever option McIver feels is best.
Mayo don't have that kind of structure or range of options, evident from the current over-reliance on Conor Mortimer for scores, but they have a number of things over Donegal.
I look at that Donegal panel and there's a deficit of leaders. There's no McHugh or Molloy like in '92, or even a Jim McGuinness or John Gildea like in 2002.
Kevin Cassidy has the potential to be a leader but currently lacks the required on-field discipline, something Brian must address. Michael Hegarty has the talent and experience but not the assertiveness. Neil Gallagher leads by example, but all championship teams must have vocal leaders too.
Paul McGrane leads by example, while Kieran McGeeney will challenge and inspire teammates, vocally as well as by example. Where are Donegal's vocal leaders? Barry Monaghan, possibly.
Maybe Devenney too, but he's had good leagues before which haven't translated into good championships. Boys need to step up, speak up and then walk the talk, because Damien Diver is hardly coming out of retirement now.
In Mayo, Alan Dillon lead by example, while vocally they have James Nallen, David Heaney, David Brady and especially Kevin O'Neill. When Mickey and myself consulted some of the other veterans last year about recalling Kevin to the county scene, they said even if he didn't kick a ball, he'd be a role model for the younger fellas, and they were right.
Kevin's aura is one of control, in the way he plays, in the way he speaks, and it was a smart move by John to make him captain.
Donegal aren't as advanced as Mayo either. By advanced, I mean as far up the football hierarchy. We hear a lot about Mayo's All Ireland famine but this past 15 years only Kerry have clearly been more successful than them. Mayo have certainly been far more successful than Donegal, football-wise and economically too. I once read in an economics journal that there are more millionaires per square mile from Mayo than there is in any comparable area in the whole of Ireland or the UK. All the county needs is Sam to polish that success off. Donegal have lost 12 finals since '92 and none of them were All Ireland finals. Mayo have been in five. Donegal's players are haunted by '92 more than Mayo's are by '51. The ghosts are still alive in Donegal, eating lunch at the table across from them, and it will take more than a league title to banish them.
John O'Mahony has issues too. It used to be said that if you stop Ciaran McDonald, you stop Mayo; now it appears if you stop Conor Mortimer, you stop them. Dillon and Ger Brady should be scoring more, while Peader Gardiner and Enda Devenney still aren't getting forward as much as Paddy Kelly and Peader did last year.
Billy Joe Padden has played well at centre-back but I wonder has he the pace when the ground gets hard. Mickey and myself dabbled with him at centre-half too because he was teak-tough with a lot of football but, while he's hardly slow, he's very one-paced, kind of like the McEntee twins. Although Michael Hegarty is one of the best centre-forwards in the country, I'd play someone quicker on Billy Joe.
It looks like Johnno's going to stick with him though and James Kilcullen at three, which tells me he's designing a team to specifically beat Kerry, one not afraid to get physical with Declan O'Sullivan and counter the aerial power of Kieran Donaghy. The trouble with that is Mayo will first have to encounter other forwards that could fake and shake Billy Joe and young Kilcullen to death.
Along the way, both will need someone covering either just behind or in front of them.
Johnno's well aware they have Galway on 20 May, just as McIver knows Armagh are waiting for his men. You might believe Armagh are finished.
Armagh aren't finished. In the league they had full-forward lines like Vernon, Swift and Toal. Soon it'll be McDonnell, McConville, Marsden, with Philip Loughran another option at full-forward. The game going back to Ballybofey will suit Armagh too. Tighter pitch.
Right now, I'd fancy Armagh for 27 May.
The shadow of those upcoming challenges is why, despite all the finesse on display today, I think we'll get a tight, tense game. I detect from the managers' various statements there's a fear of entering their first-round games on the back of a loss. If they were playing Leitrim and Antrim next month, both teams today would be going all out to win. Now they're going out not to lose and that difference is often reflected in a game's entertainment value.
I feel Mayo will shade it today. I sense they'll win the All Ireland too. They have no fear of Tyrone and, while traditionally there's a fear of Kerry, I suspect there's now less of it. Pat O'Shea needed to win that All Ireland club title to give him the necessary credibility with opposing coaches as well as with his own players, yet did he ever give you the impression after the first game that Crokes could win the second?
Today's a chance for Mayo and Donegal to gain some more credibility themselves. Win this and they can win a lot more.
John Morrison coached Mayo to an All Ireland final last year and Donegal to an All Ireland quarter-final in 2002
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