WHAT a bloody awful week. I lost 3000, ensuring my worst week since this column began So what happened? The markets went up. I had four open short positions and just one long trade which meant that, to use the headline from last week's column, I was caught with my shorts down. It seems that Mr Market is trying to tell me to strike a balance between the long and short side of things.
He's certainly not telling me to have simultaneous shorts in eBay, Amazon, Elan and the Dow. I was stopped out of the eBay trade, which broke past the $34 resistance level that had rebuffed it in the past.
This wasn't a bad trade, but I could have handled it better. With a counter-trend trade like this, you don't want to hang around too long.
I had expected a quick drop, allowing me to take some profits and bring my stop to the break-even point. Instead, the price just hovered around the $34 zone for over a week before finally breaking through my stop. I should probably have exited for a small gain during the consolidation period. The longer eBay sniffed around $34, the greater the chance of an eventual breakout. So it proved.
Amazon was a disaster. Some damn analyst upgraded the stock and it gapped up well above my stop loss order, giving me a loss of 1200 in the process ( 800 is meant to be my maximum). I nearly got sick when I saw the price. For those unacquainted with the term, a gap refers to a change in price levels between the close and open of two consecutive days and is usually occasioned by overnight news. The thought of gaps keeps traders awake at nights. Amazingly, this was the first time a stock has gapped beyond my stop since this column began.
Good luck? A little, but it's mainly due to the fact that I avoid stocks during times of upcoming uncertainty (earnings dates, etc). With gaps, there's nothing you can do except take the loss. The alternative is to hold on and hope, which is a real recipe for disaster. Anyone who does so deserves the increased losses that will likely come their way.
As for my Dow trade, it could have been worse. I had already taken some profits and lowered my initial stop so the full force of its rise over the last week was not felt as keenly as it might have been.
I'm still short Elan but it's looking ugly at the moment. I'm looking to exit at a small loss and will get out if the price comes back to $14.55 or so. I've been in the red all week on this trade, with the stock looking like it's ready to surmount resistance at $15 (my stop is above $15.10). Of course, it may resume its downtrend but that's inconsequential to me at this stage. I had expected selling at the 200-day moving average. Instead, the stock has been strong. The initial premise for being short has been negated. Ergo, I should exit if the opportunity presents itself.
Yahoo! was the sole bright spot this week. I pointed out last week that I was long the stock purely to balance my portfolio a little . . . it wasn't much of a set-up and it was a reluctant purchase. Ironic, then, that it turned out to be my sole source of profits in this miserable week. The stock followed the market on its northward journey, although it never came close to compensating for my other losses. Mediocre earnings saw the stock get hammered on Wednesday (down 10% or so) but I had already offloaded by then. As I said already, I don't have the stomach for holding through big news events.
My only new trade this week saw me buy into Apple on Wednesday.
During March, the stock rose from a low of $83 to a high of $97. It has since corrected back to the $90 area, which is where I entered. I'm embarrassed to admit that I was sweating as I hit the buy button. I was doing all kinds of mental calculations and morbid fantasising ("If this turns out to be another loser, you're looking at losses of four grand in a week, you stupid sap"). Excessive fear is as debilitating as uninhibited greed. I had to make myself take the trade. It would have been nice if the stock rewarded me with a quick bounce but it's gone nowhere so far.
My stop is under $87.50. I'm looking to take some profits should the stock get to $92, where some minor resistance lies. Ordinarily, I'd hold out for bigger gains . . . that's a poor risk/reward ratio . . . but I'm looking to book some profits to rebuild some confidence and ease myself back into normal trading. Apple reports earnings next Wednesday, so I'll have to be out before then.
I must confess to being mystified by the market's recent strength.
Rates are not going to be cut soon and earnings growth is slowing. I thought that the Dow "should" drop last week. Instead of buying the dip to the 50-day moving average, I was short. Ignoring my opinion would have been the profitable thing to do.
I'll leave the last word to trader, psychologist and blogger Dr Brett Steenbarger.
"I . . . like so many participants in the financial markets . . . lament the high debt, weak dollar, and rising commodity prices. But we have recovered from a steep decline, dollar flows into stocks are above average, and . . . as of Monday . . . well over 2000 stocks had made fresh 20-day highs. No matter how much I think the market should go down, it's not what the market data have been telling us.
"'Should' puts my judgment ahead of the market's objective reality. And that's why it's the most dangerous word in the trader's vocabulary."
|