IT REALLY doesn't matter whether the polls of the past week . . . adjusted or otherwise . . . are totally accurate. The result for the government has been a damning series of headlines and political analysis which points to the possibility that Enda Kenny . . . for the first time . . . might, just might, be our next Taoiseach.
It really doesn't matter whether Bertie Ahern decided on the 2007 election date on the day he took office after his 2002 victory or whether the rumour-mongers are right and he is dithering over the day because he wants to ride out a string of "bad news" stories.
People know an election is imminent and as a result are starting to assess the government's performance in a much more focused way. They may only be flirting with the options, but they are sitting up and paying attention.
And the events of last week . . . tragic, economic, social and political . . . have concentrated minds on a running sore that has marked this government's last term of office.
It is a seemingly insuperable lethargy with regard to reform of our public services and our political system.
Monageer, and the deaths of Adrian, Ciara Leanne and Shania Dunne, has dominated the headlines and, quite properly, the minister for children Brian Lenihan has ordered an inquiry into the official response to the concerns expressed by the undertakers involved after alarm bells rang over the strange funeral requests.
Blame has been thrown in every direction since the bodies were discovered, none of which can be apportioned until the full facts are known about the complex and very rare circumstances that led up to this tragedy. It may turn out that, even if Wexford did have an out-of-hours social service, it might not have made any difference.
But whether that is the case or not, it does not excuse the fact that the county and every other county in the country does not have adequate social care cover. That much has been clear since Sharon Grace drowned herself and her daughters two years ago.
Despite benchmarking, which was supposed to provide efficiencies and flexibility in return for financial gain, for the most part the public and health services still shut down at the weekend even though seven-day care is patently needed by many vulnerable people.
Our response to so many tragedies, it seems, is not to hasten public sector reform.
Tragedy, again and again, is met with inertia.
Monageer has also highlighted . . . again it doesn't matter how directly relevant or not they are to this case . . . how poor our suicide prevention, psychiatric and counselling services are . . . as if we needed reminding.
Let us explain, Taoiseach The Taoiseach Bertie Ahern, in his interview in this paper today, says he can't understand why people don't see the improvements in the health service. This is perhaps true on a physical level, with many new buildings and facilities now operational. But since we are now one of the richest countries in the world, we expect a lot more than clean hospitals (which we don't always get) and competent medics.
Cancer treatments still vary widely across the country. Breastcheck is still just a promise for most women despite the fact that it saves lives. Neurological expertise is short across the country.
The impetus to change is blocked by vested interests and a negative, stagnating bureaucracy. The need for reform is met with inertia.
Waiting lists for psychological and psychiatric services for children and teenagers and for those with intellectual disabilities are unacceptable, as their often isolated carers will testify. Community services for older people are not supportive enough to keep many out of nursing homes . . . and on that subject, only now, at the height of election rumours, do we have any official inquiry into the Leas Cross scandal.
People's difficulties are mostly met with goodwill and professionalism on an individual level . . . but any move to provide a connected, inter-agency pro-active grid of support services that swings into action when needed seems unrealisable, so grindingly lethargic is our public service's ability to change.
Grinding personal struggles are simply added to by systemic inertia.
It's health and education If health is the number one election issue, education is another priority for parents. The latest tranche of school inspectors' reports published last week was particularly critical of the poor facilities provided in some primary schools. One was the prefab building at the primary school where John McGahern learnt his three Rs. That temporary prefab is now 34 years old and as totally unsuitable for today's youngsters as it was when first erected.
It is only one school . . . but as the Central Statistics Office's latest account of the speed of development in the commuter counties shows, thousands of families are affected by the department of education's failure to keep pace with the developer-led proliferation of housing that (d'oh! ) creates families who need schooling.
Planning and strict implementation of the National Spatial Strategy could have helped us to avoid many of the problems of our wealth. Instead, we have had political inertia.
An endemic lethargy, bureaucracy, lack of vision . . . call it what you will . . . within both central and local government has brought water pollution, traffic jams, carbon emissions and the fracturing of communities due to fourhour commutes to and from work.
Why is the minister for transport only now announcing investment in new commuter buses when their need has been evident for years. And why is he making that announcement from the back of a borrowed bus? Why, for God's sake, has the latest attempt to shorten the queue for driving tests resulted in a doubling of the size of the backlog?
No excuse for inaction Today, as we look back, there is a lot of anger that the inertia principle has meant one of the best opportunities we had in our history to begin . . . and then cement . . . real reform of our public services has been wasted. The ESRI says growth next year will probably only reach 3.7% . . . much lower than the projection on which the Government's (and opposition's, for that matter) spending plans are based.
The polls may not be totally accurate but at least now the parties of every hue know they have a proper fight on their hands.
The political complacency of the past few years has received an ennervating jolt. Long may it last. If we can keep the politicians on their toes, they will be more inclined to take responsibility for ensuring that the public gets the service they pay for.
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