OH, TO have been a fly on the wall in Fianna Fail's election HQ last Thursday night when news of the Irish Times opinon poll filtered through. The results . . . showing Fine Gael heading for its best general election performance since the heady days of Garret the Good . . . were truly amazing. While it's hard to imagine Fianna Fail as low as 34% or Fine Gael as high as 31% come general election day, the trend in recent polls is undeniable. There has been a softening in Fianna Fail's support since the beginning of the year and a corresponding rise in backing for Fine Gael.

The worry for Fianna Fail is that even if its own private polls are showing its support base at a much higher level, the momentum is with the opposition and the public opinion polls . . . as Fine Gael discovered in 2002 . . . can become self-fulfilling prophesies.

So all bets are off, then? Well, yes and no. Yes, in the sense that the election is now officially wide open (although with Bertie Ahern still favoured to come out on top). But no, because nothing will deter the Irish public from having a flutter, especially when it comes to politics.

In the last general election, there was . . . unusually . . . a small fortune to be won because, while it was obvious Bertie Ahern was going to be returned as Taoiseach, the bookies just didn't see the Fine Gael collapse coming . . . few did.

But an analysis of the odds this time around shows the bookmakers have done some serious homework and there are few obvious bargains.

The odds on Enda Kenny becoming Taoiseach have tightened in the wake of the Irish Times poll and he is now 5-4 with Celtic Bookmakers (from 2-1 earlier in the week).

Ahern is still odds-on favourite but has drifted slightly to 4-7, having been 25. Unless you're into putting down serious money (never advisable, of course), there isn't much return to be made from this two-horse race.

The Tanaiste's position is a little more open, however. Given the tightness of the race and the possibility that Labour could end up in coalition with either Fine Gael or Labour, Celtic rightly has Rabbitte as strong favourite for the job at 1-2. Incumbent Michael McDowell is 5/1. A couple of months ago, that would have looked like attractive odds, but the prospect of a third FF/PD coalition now seems remote.

However, despite Fianna Fail's troubles, the possibility of a Fianna Fail/Green coalition cannot be ruled out. Trevor Sargent is 4-1 to be Tanaiste but, for the cannier punter, there are much more interesting odds. Sargent has said he won't lead the Greens into coalition with Fianna Fail but that doesn't mean he can't serve in cabinet with FF with another senior Green taking over the leadership role/Tanaiste position. It's possible to get odds of 6-1 on John Gormley and, even more interestingly, 12-1 on Eamon Ryan to be the next Tanaiste. Okay, there's a lot of ifs and buts involved, but it's worth mulling over.

Looking through the constituencies, unless you have your mind firmly made up about a particular candidate, there's not a huge amount that jumps out. For example, it's likely that Clare Daly of the Socialist Party, Sinn Fein's Dessie Ellis and the Greens' Niall O Brolchain will all become TDs but I wouldn't be putting my house on any of them and, at odds of 1-8, 1-6 and 1-8 respectively, there's not much to tempt the punter.

Some of the constituencies seem to be, based on the odds available, pretty much done and dusted. For example, in fourseat Cork North-Central, Celtic Bookmakers has three of the sitting TDs at 1-12, while the fourth, Kathleen Lynch, is at 1-7. Next in the betting is the Greens' Chris O'Leary at 5-1.

For those who like a long shot, the PD trio of Ciaran Cannon (Galway East), Michael Brennan (Limerick West) and Colm O'Gorman (Wexford) is available at odds of 16-1 or better.

Several constituency bets do catch the eye. Brody Sweeney at 3-1 in Dublin North-East (not sure there's a FG seat here but, if the party really is at 31%, who knows? ); Independent TD Finian McGrath at 2-1 in Dublin North-Central (FF is favourite to hold its two but, on a bad day, this is the kind of seat it will lose); FF's Lisa McDonald at 6-1 in Wexford and Fine Gael's Andrew Doyle in Wickow at 4-1. You can also get odds on high-profile TDs not getting elected, including 9-2 for Ruairi Quinn and 8-1 on Tom Kitt (can't see either losing but you never know in politics, particularly in Kitt's constituency of Dublin South).

What's particularly relevant about the odds offered by Celtic Bookmakers is that the business is owned by former FG minister Ivan Yates . . . a particularly shrewd observer of politics. As he made crystal clear when being interviewed on the subject by Matt Cooper on Today FM's Last Word last week, his odds are based on cold-eyed analysis, not sentiment (there's no money in sentiment). If all of the favourites, designated by Celtic, were to come true in each of the 43 constituencies, the result would be something like the following: FF 69, FG 45, Labour 21, Sinn Fein 10, Greens 10, PDs 2, Socialist Party 2 and others 7. Yates would be the first to point out that favourites don't always win but, as of now, that looks as good an assessment as any. As many of us know from painful experience, the bookies don't get it wrong too often.