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The shadows of uncertainty
Kevin Rafter Political Editor

     


Manchester, Mahon, a resurgent Fine Gael . . . a bullish Taoiseach says he'll take on all comers, but is this the death rattle of a departing leader?

BERTIE Ahern walks across his office, hand outstretched.

He's limping slightly. That old jogging injury is either acting up again or maybe he's just canvassing too hard.

If the opinion polls are borne out on election day, Government Buildings may soon be a place Ahern passes on Merrion Street rather than his second home. Ten years in power, and now Fine Gael has hardly been as confident since the heyday of Garret FitzGerald. This may well be the last lengthy sit-down interview Ahern gives as Taoiseach.

But he's not surrendering just yet. In fact, he's dismissive of a Fine Gael comeback from its electoral disaster in 2002.

"I'm not meeting it. We'll see if it happens. I'm reading about it, but I haven't seen it. We'll see on the day whether there is a Fine Gael revival, or whether it's just people talking them up."

Ahern has a file on the table in front of him. His advisers have prepared a multitude of possible answers for use during the interview. I can read the opening sentence of the first reply: "I do not see a Green tidef" The words are not uttered in the interview and the Taoiseach only refers to the file on one occasion.

Yet, whatever about a Green tide, the talk in political circles is all about Fianna Fail defeat. Ahern knows that no matter how well his party fares in the forthcoming contest, there is unlikely to be a repeat of 2002 when 81 seats were won, or five years previous to that when 77 Fianna Fail TDs were returned. "It would be a great achievement to win a third term. I don't think an overall majority is on, but we'll be competing for every vote and every seat. There's no point speculating where seats may be lost. I'm not engaging in punditry.

There's no definitive answers until the day of the count."

No overall majority. Seat losses. This type of talk is a long way from the last general election when Michael McDowell went up a lamp post to promote his 'Single Party Government . . . No Thanks' posters which helped stop Fianna Fail winning a Dail majority. "It was clever politics. But to be honest if he led anyone up the lamp post it was the media because what you all did, with the greatest of respect, was you knew the opposition weren't going to win so you saw a bit of colour and you all went up the lamp post with him, and you stopped me from getting an overall majority. So that's why I love you all so much." This love of the media is said with a smile.

There are a few more pops at the media later in the interview.

'Five years. . . then that's it for me' Ahern has enjoyed a decade as Taoiseach. It would be a long time in any job, but even more so in the highly pressurised world of politics. Is there only so much one individual can give before it becomes time to allow someone else have an opportunity? Is this election going to be about Enda Kenny's call for fresh ideas and new faces? For a moment, I think the Fianna Fail leader is about to accept Kenny's argument.

"I think the country would benefit from fresh energy and new ideas. I disagree with new people because I'm the guy with the energy and the fresh ideas.

You can see half the place is already exhausted and we haven't even started the campaign. They're pleading with me to have the election. I'm the one with the energy and ideas. Fresh faces?

Well, if the people want to risk it all, that's their decision."

Returning to the 'time for a change' theme . . . which featured in Kenny's recent ardfheis speech . . . I mention that many of Ahern's ministerial colleagues look tired. The Taoiseach laughs. "I'm glad they're looking tired. Anyone who's working hard should look tired. It's only people who are on the doss . . . with handy jobs, working four-day weeks, working an hour or two a day . . . they're the only ones who look fresh. Anyone who works as a minister . . . works 15 or 16 hours a day, six days a week at least . . . is going to look a bit pressurised. That's the nature of the job . . . it's a tough and demanding job.

Everyone is conscious that there's a time span. I've set mine. I've said I'll do it for another five years and then that's it for me."

The PDs remain Fianna Fail's number one choice of coalition partner. But what is the preference ranking between the alternative options, the Labour Party or the Greens?

"There will be a lot of huffing and puffing but the electorate will show whether it's Fianna Fail and the PDs;

Fianna Fail and somebody else; or Fianna Fail excluded. I've said that I would deal with most parties. Obviously with Sinn Fein, their policies are too different from us. Fianna Fail and Fine Gael . . . the historical differences and the sea change that would be, that's not going to happen. Within any of the rest it [a coalition] can happen, and it will be the people who force the decision. It won't be me, and any other party leader who claims that is not being fair."

Ahern shifts in his chair when asked what would happen should Enda Kenny be the next taoiseach . . . will he respond by resigning immediately as Fianna Fail leader? "When the election is over, naturally like everyone else I'll go and have a rest and then consider the future.

But I'm sure not going to do that now because the only thing I can contemplate is winningf that's like saying, does a fellow go out to an All-Ireland final and contemplate losing? What kind of a thick would do that?"

'I answered these things last year' Ahern's answers shorten when the conversation turns to the recent allegations about him travelling in the early '90s to Manchester with a briefcase full of cash. "I never brought money to Manchester. That's it. Full stop. It's just not true."

If there is no truth, is he going to issue legal proceedings? "I only sued once in my 30 years in political life. I consider newspapers dear enough. Suing newspapers only puts up newspaper costs and I try to avoid that."

And what about the former garda . . .

Martin Fallon . . . who is reportedly the source for the allegations? "I don't remember him. I obviously met him. He drove me, but he was a stand-in driver.

I had a guy for a day last week and I can't even remember what he looked like.

I'm sure he was a very nice man."

The other Manchester story . . . the 1994 function at which, as finance minister, Ahern took sterling cash from business people . . . is also back in the news with an opinion poll showing many people still want the episode better explained. "I answered these things when they came up last year . . . people keep asking the one negative and drop the thousand positives, as you're doing nowf" Tomorrow, the Mahon tribunal is expected to start what it calls the Quarryvale II Module. Property developer Tom Gilmartin will be the star witness and he will have an opportunity to retell his tales of political and business skullduggery. Ahern is due to give evidence.

Yet he says that, whatever Gilmartin says, "is not for me, but anything that comes up I'll deal with. I have nothing whatsoever to worry about."

The Mahon tribunal has said it will suspend its public work approximately two weeks before polling day. He chooses his words carefully but Ahern is clearly unhappy with the tribunal's plans. "That's a matter for the tribunal, but all I can say is that the precedent since the foundation of the state has been that tribunals haven't sat during an election. I'm not going to comment on something that I'm personally involved in. I'm just quoting what is the precedent."

So could the tribunal proceedings that are heard before it suspends its work impact on the general election? "Of course it would. If a tribunal is on at the same time as a general election, what else is it?"

The ongoing payments controversy and the recent briefcase allegations have clearly left Ahern feeling sore.

"They're damaging. They're thought out in backrooms somewhere . . . and I don't know where, before you ask me . . .

and people plant them and they're only done for one reason: to do damage.

When you have a good economic record and your policies are really goodf then people decide that they have to get you in other ways, and that's what these things are about. And of course it works.

That's why they carefully plan these things out."

Fianna Fail wants to fight the general election on the economy and Ahern's strong personal appeal. Party insiders admit the health service is their big weakness. The Taoiseach has a slightly different take. "I'm not saying this tongue in cheek or in a lighthearted way, [but] I should really have people congratulating me on the health service, and that's not the case. While there have been huge improvements. . . for the money we've put in, we haven't got the consummate reforms. That's a fact.

"People are immensely happy with the health service. They are very critical of aspects, particularly critical of A&E.

Now we're getting on top of that.

We had only one bad week in the whole winter . . . that reminds me that somebody should do an article on that. . . Next winter, it will be a whole lot better."

For Ahern to have a good winter, he first has to have a good summer. It arrives on Tuesday and the general election will finally follow.

PENALTY SHOOT-OUT Sunday Tribune: Champions League or the Premiership?

Bertie Ahern: I only saw the end of last Wednesday night but I'd take the Premiership.

ST: Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama?

BA: Hillary.

ST: Gordon Brown or David Cameron?

BA: Pass.

ST: Pat Rabbitte or Trevor Sargent?

BA: I like both of them. I could work with both of them.

ST: 24 May or 31 May?

BA: They are both interesting dates.

Summer is coming so the election is getting nearer.

CELEBRITY BERTIE

BA: We all try to live very simple and ordinary lives. The one thing we all have in common is we all work very hard, Cecilia with her writing, Nicky and Georgina with the band. Everyone grafts hard.

ST: But to use PJ Mara's phrase, 'it's showtime' . . . is there a sense about you that politics is now showtime?

BA: I see politics as a career. It's a noble profession. I don't agree with the showtime thing. I didn't agree with it the day it was said. I don't consider politics [as] showtime."




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