You can see why our ancestors developed civilisation: being hunted isn't much fun . . . not when it's for real.

A predator's lifestyle isn't much better: one injury and you're permanently out of the game. Some animals . . . like wild dogs . . . carry the slightly injured for a while. But only to the point where they don't endanger the group.

Irish property investors have spread even into the bush. In some cases, they've brought their customary service quality . . .undermining the excellent reputation of local hosts. The food is good, so we buy a recipe book at the airport . . .entitled There's an Elephant in the Kitchen. A catchy title is half of getting people to buy.

9th April, Johannesburg Flying home, we debate why Africa is poor: it has natural resources, including gifted people.

Neither governments nor nongovernmental organisations have convincing answers. Natural wealth is not the solution: resources corrupted Nigeria and Angola. Educated people, fertile land and good infrastructure do not ensure success: Zimbabwe cannot even feed itself.

Aid didn't work: Africa receives about 15% of income from foreign donors. Santa Claus gets presents to rich kids and book distributors deliver 9m Harry Potter volumes in a single day but 2 trillion in aid didn't deliver bed-nets and inoculations to the poor. Markets deliver while planners fail because entrepreneurs are answerable to customers. Business people solve problems through experimentation. Planners think they already know the answer . . . whether it's debt write-offs or intervention.

Africa's only success is Botswana, which averaged 9% growth yearly since independence. There is negligible corruption, jobs are available, the currency is stable and there's legal title. Botswana's success shows that Africans . . . like Japanese . . .can succeed by borrowing technology and approaches when it suits.

17th April, Rio de Janeiro I sneak my luggage onto the Cityjet flight and miraculously make a 45 minute connection at Charles de Gaulle without breaking sweat . . .collecting on a side bet. A sleeping tablet on the 10-hour "ight helps. My plan to take a siesta fails: the room isn't available till 3pm. Shower, breakfast and meetings follow. The presentations are good but we're double-booked. A good conference is very ef"cient at meeting industry players.

There is again a buzz in Latin America. Commodity prices are strong. Some governments are antibusiness but others are sympathetic and it's cyclical anyway. We meet Gary Moore from Moira, Co Down . . .gregarious boss of Gold Oil. Irish entrepreneurs appear everywhere.

The organiser . . . an old Rhodesian of Irish extraction . . . insists that I deliver an address and moderate a session. But the technical people know the stuff better than me! They know it too well, reasons Duncan Clarke. Micks have the gift of the gab . . . provoke the majors and government officials. This approach works mainly because other presentations are earnest and dry.

The high oil price does conflict with the numbers. Consumption in the OECD has been flat for three years. Data in emerging markets like China is maybe two years out. There is substitution from gas, coal and biofuels. But new supplies have been slow to enter. The weak dollar and strong economies help. Few buyers really pay the spot price. Peak-oil theorists have been largely vindicated . . . though they overstate their case.

Even if oil price falls back, it will average about $40. So it makes sense to study unconventional oil sources.

During the 1980s, Brazilians tried to interest us in ethanol. That industry proved a white elephant . . . but finally it's time has come!

19th April, Rio de Janeiro When I lived in Brazil, a useful Portuguese word was saudade . . .meaning nostalgia. Returning to the scene of past crimes still triggers the sadness of lost youth. But while Ipanema then appeared chic compared to dreary 1980s Dublin . . . it now appears run-down. Brazil has stagnated, but Ireland is transformed.

Following another late night, culminating in a 2am swim . . . over the objections of hotel security . . . I forget to switch off my mobile. Am woken by calls that a report in the Financial Times confirms that Iraqi oil reserves could be double past estimates.

We've been saying that since the 1990s. I now realise that they didn't believe us. People focus on who says rather than the evidence.

BBC wants an interview. I envisage the typical bored listener stuck in traffic and keep comments snappy.

The interviewer can decide how much detail is required: Iraq is the only major oil province likely to surprise on the upside; its reserves should triple from current estimates.

Reserves accounting is conservative; with latest technology Iraqis could double recoveries from existing reservoirs. Additional exploration in southern Iraq largely duplicates what has already succeeded across the border in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

23rd April . . . saving the planet Global warming is real politically . . .even if not certain scientifically. My carbon footprint from flights is not helped by taking the DART. Sheryl Crow's bum note about saving tissue reminds me of consulting for Bowater-Scott in 1980s England and Australia. Then, women were 50% of the population but consumed 70% of product. Market research suggested that this was due to the fact that most 'scrunched' rather than 'folded' tissue.

Consumers wanted 'softness' but also 'security' during use. Oddly, the best products, like Andrex, were popular in Ireland and Britain . . .

countries which had unsophisticated bathroom appliance demand.

Germans, in contrast, bought expensive appliances but cheap paper.

While individual housewives did not appear to discriminate, market research showed that in the aggregate, the market was efficient: if you cut back sheets per roll at the same price, you lost share. If you improved sheet count, quality or cut price, you gained share. Many suppliers go down the tubes for failure to get to the bottom of consumer needs!