Bertie was a hot favourite because even if FF lose 10 seats he still has a few cards to play with the Greens, the Independents and SF. And we felt that FG could have a good election but just come short. However, since the election was called last Sunday all the money has gone on Kenny to be the next Taoiseach. Not even a euro has been placed on Bertie and the prices have moved accordingly. Enda has shortened in from 2/1 to evens while Bertie went from 2/5 to 4/6.

If this trend continues it is heading towards 5/6 each of two . . . which is an even money bet with a small pro"t margin for the bookie.

We have also seen some expressions of interest but no money at 20/1 for Brian Cowen to be elected Taoiseach when the Dail resumes.

It is quite clear that this is getting to be a tighter and tighter horse race and the momentum seems to be with Kenny.

Normally FF supporters are the heaviest betters and I have been surprised by the lack of cash for their man. We have seen incredible betting on a whole range of individual FF candidates such as Michael McGrath in Cork South Central, Timmy Dooley in Clare and Michael Crowe in Galway West, and quite a lot of money for Independents such as James Breen in Clare.

The overriding cash has been for secondstring FG candidates with bets of between 5,000 and 10,000 on people like Tom Sheehan in Kerry South, Tom McHugh in Galway East, Regina Doherty in Meath East and Pascal Donohue in Dublin Central.

Catherine Byrne is the favourite to hold Jim Mitchell's seat in Dublin South Central but most money has come in for Anne Marie Martin. This is somewhat puzzling but often the punters are ahead of the pundits in terms of the change that is out there.

There is no clear distinguishable pattern other than the fact that I gave very generous odds on FF holding seats in Carlow-Kilkenny, Cork South West, Dublin Central and Dublin North . . . my prices were between 2/1 and 4/1 . . . and I felt I was taking a risk there as it was odds against sitting TDs to lose their seat but I have seen no money for them yet.

Ivan's analysis It really can't get much worse for FF but it would be unwise of the Rainbow alliance to get in any way complacent because I believe that at some point FF will get momentum in their campaign.

Some FF sources are telling me they want to hold 75 seats and other sources that are less benign towards Bertie are putting it at 64 seats.

The problem for FF is that although Bertiegate will solidify their core vote, a lot of their vote has slipped substantially into the undecided category. The central question is will that vote swing back or will it keep on moving towards Enda Kenny? That is where the Bertiegate issue hangs. I can't read how it is going to play in the middle ground.

The overwhelming mood I am picking is a mood for change even for change itself.

Bertiegate will be less relevant in three weeks time and it will be very signi"cant if there is a head-to-head TV debate between Enda and Bertie. If Kenny can hold his own in such a debate he has a great prospect of becoming Taoiseach.

If there is a key tipping point it won't be Vincent Browne's questioning. It will be a TV debate at the eleventh hour.

Ivan Yates is managing director of Celtic Bookmakers and a former minister and TD for Wexford.

In conversation with Connor McMorrow