THE first rule of reporting on a general election campaign is to beware the spin doctor who comes bearing confidential opinion poll results. Back in 1992, as the national polls pointed to a Fianna Fail drubbing, the party maintained all was well. Senior Fianna Fail officials working for Albert Reynolds claimed their private tracking polls were showing more favourable results than the national polls from established market-research companies. It was only after the campaign . . . and Fianna Fail lost seats . . . that the backroom personnel put their hands up. There were never any tracking polls.

Lies and the dark art of political spin were at work.

That is not to say the same applies to the information supplied last week by Fine Gael or Fianna Fail. But their respective takes on what is likely to happen in the 43 constituencies have to be treated with caution. First let's see what Frank Flannery, FG's director of elections, had to say. "I'd be very disappointed if we don't break 50 seats, " he declared on Monday morning. Twentyfour hours later, he had revised his predictions upwards.

FG would be in the range of 52 to 58 seats. (Last September he said his party would win up to 60 seats. ) The latest FG forecasts have the other parties as FF 60 to 66; Labour 22 to 26; the Greens nine and maybe double digits; Sinn Fein nine; PDs "some"; and Independents six or seven. His regional breakdown by Euro-constituency is Dublin FF 14, FG 10; East FF 15, FG 16; South FF 18, FG 16; and North East FF 15, FG 14. "The assumptions are not overly optimistic, " Flannery said. But here's the issue. FG does not use a recognised polling company to gather constituency information. It has people collecting the data and FG crunching the numbers. It won't say how many constituency polls have been undertaken or when they were conducted. And Flannery's overall predictions are actually based on extrapolations from national media polls.

Fianna Fail secrets Fianna Fail won't engage in public discussion of its private polls either. But it's known that election expert Sean Donnelly undertakes the field work and calculates the numbers so at least the party has access to independent poll results. Without seeing the actual results, caution is again advised, although FF sources concede FG will make gains but at nothing like the level predicted by Flannery.

The constituencies where FG could gain . . . according to FF . . . include Cork South Central (Deirdre Clune), Cork South West (PJ Sheehan), Tipperary North (Noel Coonan, though Labour's Kathleen O'Meara is said to be doing well), Clare (any of the three FG candidates), Roscommon-South Leitrim (Frank Feighan), Dublin West (Leo Varadkar), Dublin South West (Brian Hayes) and Dun Laoghaire (Sean Barrett). That would give FG only eight additional seats, which seems on the low side given recent national polls and Enda Kenny's strong start to the campaign.

Interestingly, FF sees itself having 18 seats in Dublin . . .

Flannery has them at 14 . . . and FF gives FG at best six seats in the capital against Flannery's 10 seats. Neither party can be right but they may well both be wrong about the capital.

FF could lose seats in Dublin but FG fails to make serious gains. Why? Because the beneficiaries of FF's woes turn out to be the Greens, Sinn Fein and Independents.

We're heading for a hung Dail. Ahern promised an election in the summer . . . it may well be the end of the summer before we get a new government.

Brian Cowen took to quoting the former Australian prime minister Paul Keating with his "burn the opposition on the barbie" comment last week. But Keating may not be the best role model for Fianna Fail to adopt, especially as his political career ended in defeat in 1996 when his party was thrown out of of"ce after 13 years in power. There are also plenty of other colourful quotes from Keating that can be turned back on Cowen. The most relevant this weekend for Fianna Fa?il is the Australian's description of one of his political opponents: "What we have got is a dead carcass, swinging in the breeze, but nobody will cut it down to replace him."

Meanwhile, in the other house. . .

THE Dail election is underway with candidates pounding the pavements but over in the Seanad an election of a very different type is getting started.

Nominations close on 15 June and the poll . . . it's a postal ballot . . . closes at 11am on 23 July. For some unsuccessful Dail candidates, it could be a long summer, as the Seanad may ultimately be their way back into national politics. They'll be chasing the 43 seats determined by council and Oireachtas member votes. The new Taoiseach will nominate 11 members, while graduates of Trinity College and the National University of Ireland will decide six seats.

The university contest will be keenly fought, especially the three TCD seats where Mary Henry is standing down. David Norris and Shane Ross are expected to enjoy another term but the energetic Ross has been taking no risks with an email to graduates asking for their number one and "a good word here or there when you meet Dublin University graduates".