sunday tribune logo
 
go button spacer This Issue spacer spacer Archive spacer

In This Issue title image
spacer
News   spacer
spacer
spacer
Sport   spacer
spacer
spacer
Business   spacer
spacer
spacer
Property   spacer
spacer
spacer
Tribune Review   spacer
spacer
spacer
Tribune Magazine   spacer
spacer

 

spacer
Tribune Archive
spacer

We should take a big interest in Germany
Barbara McCarthy



GERMANY is experiencing its fastest growth since 2000.

Economic minister Michael Glos raised the economic growth forecast for 2007 to 2.3%, a sharp rise on the previous prediction of 1.7%. In April the jobless count stood at 3.97m, down from March's 4.11m. The country is predicting that growth will hit 2.4% next year. That will have should reduce Germany's jobless to under 3.5m by 2008, its lowest level for a decade.

The latest Ifo survey, the main survey of business opinion, showed that German business optimism is particularly improved in retailing, where it had been extremely glum. Exports are strong, as is domestic demand. The usually cautious German consumers are spending again, everyone is delighted. So why aren't we?

Back in the 1990s we benefited from Germany's successful economy. We used to go to Germany to work and then they sent us huge net transfer payments, which help offset the Celtic Tiger.

When we became richer and Germany went into a recession, it equally suited us.

Interest rates decreased, which meant we could borrow all around us and more recently we became more than happy to invest in the German property market and point the finger at their fledging economy. We even outplayed them in the 2002 World Cup. So it was a winwin all round.

Now they have a better football team and their economy is hotting up. "That's the paradox, " says Dan McLaughlin, chief economist at Bank of Ireland Global Treasury. "Irish interest rates are fundamentally influenced by Germany."

So what about other EU countries? "The UK does not affect our interest rates, instead it does impact on trading, sales of Irish products and tourism, " he says.

As the second-largest economy in Europe, France is important, but not as much as Germany. Germany accounts for one-third of the Eurozone's GDP and interest rates are affected by that.

Between 1999 and 2000, when the German economy was booming the Eurozone was growing strong and as a result the European Central Bank raised interest rates from 3.5% to 4.75% within a ten-month period. Then in 2002 it went down from 4.75% to 2%. This was as a result of the miniscule growth rates experienced in Germany.

Between 2001 and 2005 the German economy grew by only 0.6% per year on average. In terms of interest rates, low growth means low interest and high growth means high interest.

So is it in our interest for the German economy to slow down again? Perversely enough it is for people who want to borrow. "People who suffer from an improved German economy are first-time buyers and people who are heavily financially stressed, " says Jim Power, chief economist at Friends First.

Power says the German economy is going well. "There is great momentum and it is not set to abate in the coming years." In Ireland however, brokers sharply reduced their estimate for growth this year from a 5.3% rise in output to 4.5%. They expect a further slowdown to 3.5% next year.

"But the Irish economy is still more dynamic than the German economy, " says Leef Dietz, an economist at Barclays Bank, Frankfurt. "If both countries experience strong economic growth then the European Central Bank interest hikes in June will not lead to an economic slowdown."

But the when interest rates are increased to 4% in June this year, it will affect us more than the Germans. "Although bank lending has picked up in Germany, the tradition of buying is not as strong as it is in Ireland, " he says. "A lot of borrowing in Germany is also fixed, while in Ireland people are reluctant to fix and tend to get a variable rate."

Can we blame the Germans for doing well? They didn't seem to mind when we buckled up. We can blame the monetary union if we want.

One size fits all and that's what we signed up for.




Back To Top >>


spacer

 

         
spacer
contact icon Contact
spacer spacer
home icon Home
spacer spacer
search icon Search


advertisment




 

   
  Contact Us spacer Terms & Conditions spacer Copyright Notice spacer 2007 Archive spacer 2006 Archive