And yet, in a way, it could be the most predictable All Ireland of the lot. Once again, Kerry are the standard, the par for the course.

If there is a side with exceptional talent and desire out there . . . an Armagh like '02, a Tyrone like '03 and '05 . . . then they will stop Kerry winning the All Ireland. If there is not, then Kerry will take the All Ireland. Such is their own excellence, they win All Irelands by default.

And that's the thing about this year. Two years ago you had three exceptional teams.

This year possibly only Kerry are. It's their All Ireland to lose. But lose it they might, and the possibility of that will be one of the talking points of the summer.

There'll be so many others. Your own county has its own battles to fight and dreams to chase. That's what we love about this year; for every downside there's an upside. Having the four best teams in Ulster all on the one side of the draw means the five counties on the opposite side are dreaming of a big day in Clones, even Croke Park. Either Roscommon or Sligo will be in the Connacht final, a game away from Croke Park.

And the Tommy Murphy Cup means something this year. Finally, the Waterfords and Wicklows have something tangible to play for;

finally, Leitrim and Longford playing in the All Ireland qualifiers isn't just an assumption, it's an achievement. Only Offaly . . . arguably . . . are above it; no one else. Micko and Paidi are in no position to turn their noses up at it, otherwise they should have turned their noses up at the packages they were offered last winter. The Tommy Murphy Cup is what you make it . . . and what you deserve too if you're in it.

Now that the qualifiers will be free off the Waterford and Wicklows, it means the provincial championships have a value and edge to them they haven't had since the advent of the backdoor. Because this year, that first-round qualifier draw is a piranha pit. Two of Ulster's best three teams . . . Donegal, Tyrone or Armagh . . . will be in it, where they might meet either Galway or Mayo. Before, if you were an Ulster team other than Tyrone or Armagh, your best prospect of a run of summer adventure was in the qualifiers. Now it's in Ulster. The front door is the way to go.

Armagh and Tyrone themselves know that better than anyone, even though they've each reached All Ireland finals through the backdoor. Each side have had an aura, an aura that's been stripped by indifferent leagues these past two seasons, an aura that two wins in Ulster will revive, but that a defeat in Ulster will vanquish once and for all. Tyrone especially need it. They've only one Ulster title in Mickey Harte's reign, and only two in the past eight years. Right now, Armagh's six Ulsters and one All Ireland outstrips Tyrone's two All Irelands and two Ulsters.

Not all the tweaks with the system have been for the better though. This year, teams who've met in the provincial championship can meet again in the qualifiers and the All Ireland quarter-final. Why? Do the powers-thatbe think that protecting the draw was that complicated? Has everyone forgotten how depressing all those repeat games were in 2001? They changed the system for the second year of the qualifiers and they'll do it again next year or the year after, guaranteed.

Because picture this for a moment. Say Armagh manage to go into the league champions' den and beat Donegal in three weeks' time. After that they'll play their old friends Tyrone, a side they've required a replay to see off the last two times they've met in Ulster.

Suppose they lose to Tyrone, maybe after another replay. They're in the qualifiers, stuck in round one, and if Donegal are the name out just in front of theirs, they're off to Ballybofey again. Do you know hard that is to do? Or say Fermanagh shock Tyrone, only to have to play them in the qualifiers again . . . in Omagh. The appeal of the backdoor was how it allowed teams to express themselves away from the shackles of their province and overly-familiar old foes. There's a pile of teams out there to play against; no one should be stuck with the same old team again and again.

Dublin have a real chance of winning this All Ireland. They have a passage to the Leinster final that will test them but hardly stop them, and by then they should have caught a wave that might take them all the way to a final. They have so many question marks hovering over them though, like the full-back spot and whether their forwards can recapture that groove they had last summer.

Even Ciaran Whelan will have to hone his game. While in the past two years he's sacrificed his scoring to patrol the middle and thus become one of the most consistent midfielders in the country, he's prone to bouts of frustration and, in turn, flashes of petulance when he's not dominating a game.

In Dave Berry's documentary of Caffrey's first season in charge, Whelan spoke of how relieved he was to escape a red card after lashing out at Nigel Crawford seconds into that year's Leinster quarter-final, saying he wouldn't have liked to have had to face Caffrey if John Bannon had dismissed him. Caffrey should still have confronted him, just as Whelan should have been sent off for his challenge on Ronan McGarrity last August. When you consider the stray elbow against Westmeath in 2004, that's three consecutive championships now Whelan could have seen red.

Liam Dunne territory. Dunne duly made it a goal of his to rein in his temper in '04. So must Whelan. Just as Dublin will have to live with there being one game every summer in which Whelan won't be at the height of his game, so will Whelan himself. At the moment though, there's too many doubts over the temperament of his teammates up front, and even his management, for the Dubs to get our vote.

There's too many ifs surrounding Tyrone too. If Brian McGuigan gets back, if Stephen O'Neill recaptures his old form, if Owen Mulligan clicks like he did in '05. A worry is that they're not scoring enough goals. Ever since O'Neill and Mulligan both found the net in that pulsating 2005 All Ireland quarter final replay against Dublin, Tyrone have never raised more than one green flag in a game. That's 20 league or championship games ago. Teams who go that long without raising green flags don't raise Sam Maguires.

Mayo and Cork are strong contenders, but up front have too many ifs themselves. As we point out elsewhere in these pages, every All Ireland champion needs two vintage forwards. Each, arguably, have one, in Conor Mortimer and James Masters, but even then they're Derek Savages, not Padraic Joyces. If Ciaran McDonald comes back, he could be that Joyce, but we're not his doctor.

Which leaves us with Donegal and Kerry.

Like Tyrone in 2003, Donegal tick all the boxes we look for in a potential champion.

They have the sense of mission, the confidence from winning a league, the manager, the midfield, the backs, the forwards. They even have forwards who have another gear or two in them, like Christy Toye, Michael Hegarty and even Brendan Devenney. But there's that savage draw they have. Right now Kerry are in the last 12. We can't say the same about Donegal. If they had the draw Kerry had, we'd tip them, but they don't have that draw.

Kerry are entitled to our vote. Look at the other contenders and they might have three or four quality forwards . . . Kerry have eight, including the one player nobody could handle last year in Kieran Donaghy. If they want it enough, it is theirs, but will they want it enough?

Ask us again in a month's time who'll win it all; by then Tyrone or the Dubs might have caught a wave that could bring them all the way to an All Ireland. Right now we feel Darragh O Se will drag Kerry to another one. But they could yet be overwhelmed by a tsunami called Donegal.

HOW IT'S DIFFERENT THIS YEAR This year's there's only three rounds of qualifiers, and you either play in those qualifiers or the Tommy Murphy Cup. The eight teams which constitute next year's Division Four . . .

Antrim, Carlow, Clare, London, Offaly, Tipperary, Waterford and Wicklow . . . will contest the Murphy Cup, unless they reach their respective provincial final.

For that reason, the firstround qualifier draw will only take place after the make-up of the provincial finals is known.

The 16 non-Division Four teams who fail to make their provincial final will all go into that firstround draw, with the eight winners then playing off the following week. Then those four winners play the provincial runners-up to qualify for the All Ireland quarter-finals. First teams picked out are at home in rounds one and two, with round three at neutral grounds.

Teams who have met in the provincial championships can meet again in the qualifiers and All Ireland quarter-finals.

However, the semi-final format has been tweaked. Should Cork and Kerry, as Munster finalists, both win their All Ireland quarter-finals, they might not necessarily meet, while in the last two years, they had to.