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ELECTION BOOKIE
IVAN YATES

 


Fianna Fail

There are Fianna Fail seats under real pressure in Carlow/Kilkenny (3/1 to hold their existing seats), Cork South West (3/1), Dublin Central (3/1), Dublin North (4/1) and Dublin North East (11/4).

Overall, there are 13 constituencies where Fianna Fail is under real pressure.

It's 7/4 to win a second seat in Kerry South, 1/2 to win a seat in Sligo/North Leitrim, and 7/4 to win two seats in Kildare North.

Fine Gael The most likely scenario for Fine Gael is that it will get 47 to 48 seats and we are giving 2/1 on that.

The only area where it can lose a seat is Donegal South West where Dinny McGinley is 2/1 on to hold on against the Sinn Fein threat.

There are a number of key marginals where it will have to win to get into power. These are Kerry South where FG is 5/4 to get a seat, Kildare South (6/4), Cork North West (5/4), Mayo (evens), Limerick West (2/1), Dublin North East (2/1), and Dublin Central (3/1).

Labour We have Labour at 6/4 to get 22 to 23 seats. It has a great chance (1/5) of gaining a seat in Meath East. Its key battlegrounds are Wicklow where Nicky Kelly is evens to take a seat, Dublin South where Alex White is 8/11 to take a seat and Dublin South Central where Labour is 4/5 to get two seats.

Sinn Fein Sinn Fein is getting stronger with every passing day and we have them at 5/4 to take 10 seats and 6/4 to take 11 seats.

It is odds on to get seats in the two Donegal constituencies and Dessie Ellis (1/6) and Mary Lou McDonald (1/5) look like they will take seats.

The key extra seats that it could take are Joanne Spain (7/3) in Dublin Mid West and Larry O'Toole (4/9) in Dublin North East. Along with Spain, four key seats it could take are Waterford (9/4), Sligo/North Leitrim (7/4) and Meath West 7/4.

Greens The Greens are not having a good campaign. They have been the biggest sufferers over the Bertiegate issue as they have been pushed to the periphery.

We were predicting they would take 11 or 12 seats but now we have them at 6/4 for nine seats. Patricia McKenna has drifted from 1/2 to 2/1, Bronwyn Maher has gone out to 5/2 and in Dublin South Central the odds have gone from 1/2 to odds against on Tony McDermott.

PDs They are going to be the biggest loser and we are now offering 4/5 on them getting two seats.

The only two candidates that are odds on are Harney at 1/6 and McDowell at 4/11. We have Liz O'Donnell at 2/1, Tim O'Malley at 6/4, Tom Parlon at 6/4, Noel Grealish at 6/4, Fiona O'Malley at 9/2 and Mae Sexton at 12/1.

Ivan's analysis The three issues that will decide this election are the TV debate, the seven marginal constituencies and the elephant in the corner . . . Sinn Fein.

The other parties are going to have to accept that Sinn Fein is going to hold the balance of power.

After this week there is a new political dispensation emerging not only in the North but also in the south and even though politicians are reluctant to shake Gerry Adams's hand now they will be giving him a bear hug after this election.

Fianna Fail has to get a new partner if it is to go back into government as it cannot handle its seat losses and the PDs' losses.

It has a more willing partner right under its nose.

If either Kenny or Ahern could engineer a handshake with Adams it would do no harm.




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