I think he will be one of the great taoisigh, " Fine Gael's senior strategist Frank Flannery predicted on Friday. The praise may be overdone (and premature). It also clashes with the view in the Treasury Building where Fianna Fail's election top brass describe Kenny as insubstantial, inexperienced and lightweight. In the lead-in to the general election campaign, Fianna Fail believed Bertie Ahern would swat aside a third Fine Gael leader. In its view, Kenny would go the way of John Bruton and Michael Noonan as the election debate became more focused on the economy.

Kenny does not have the academic brain of Garret FitzGerald nor does he have the political experience of John Bruton. He has limited ministerial exposure, but in his four years as Fine Gael leader he has shown he can lead a team, and in winning Pat Rabbitte over to a pre-election deal he has displayed decent political skills. He may also have another quality. In the cut and thrust of an election campaign, luck sometimes plays a role. And in this regard Enda Kenny is proving himself to be a very lucky politician indeed. The Fine Gael leader is having a good campaign although he has been assisted to an extraordinary degree by a Fianna Fail campaign that, if it continues in the same vein, may soon rank alongside Albert Reynolds's disastrous efforts in 1992.

In the two weeks of this contest Kenny has ducked and dived around many of the issues that have arisen in the election campaign. He skirted around the nurses' dispute without really committing himself to delivering anything substantial to those on the picket lines. His status quo response to the Miss D case emphasised that he does not come from the Garret FitzGerald wing of Fine Gael. His outburst at the Fine Gael manifesto launch has left him exposed to criticism about saying more about the leaks than the substantive issue of Ahern's money woes. On top of this, there are holes in Fine Gael's manifesto. Its figures on garda numbers and hospital beds are questionable. The document also includes up to 1,000 uncosted promises. But so far this has mattered little, as a well-organised campaign has assisted the Fine Gael leader, who saw his satisfaction ratings increase by six percentage points to 47% in Friday's TNS/MRBI poll. It was his highest rating since he replaced Michael Noonan in 2002.

To date, Fianna Fail has not laid a glove on Kenny. But now he will become the sole focus of Fianna Fail attacks. On Prime Time last Thursday evening, Seamus Brennan played the experience card . . . Ahern's record stands second to none. Bertie Ahern entered the fray on Friday morning, describing his opponent's intervention in the nurses' dispute as "highly irresponsible". Ahern added, "He has no experience in industrial relations and never had." The attack highlighted two points. Firstly, the fact that Ahern was acknowledging his opponent means Fianna Fail is admitting that Kenny cannot simply be ignored. Secondly, the voters are electing a government led by a Taoiseach and not by a trade union official.

The experience card can also be a doubleedged sword. As one Labour strategist remarked last week, sometimes experience can also be seen as: "You've been there forever." Ahern's achievements in the peace process have been to the fore over the last seven days. But the images from Stormont also reinforced the impression of a job completed . . . a case of a lot done, nothing left to do. In addition, the sight of Ahern alongside Tony Blair only prompted the question . . . if Blair's time is up after a decade, why not Ahern's also?

What should have been strong positives have potentially become negatives for the Fianna Fail campaign. Ahern's speech at Westminster on Tuesday may only stress this point once more.

There was one dramatic shift in voter opinion in last Friday's TNS/MRBI poll. Two weeks ago, only 23% of respondents said they thought Fine Gael, Labour and possibly the Greens were likely to form the next government against 41% for Fianna Fail and the PDs. Now those figures are 35% for the Kenny-led alliance (up 12%) against 34% (down 7%) for Ahern's two-party coalition.

The conclusion from these figures: people increasingly believe Kenny can win. That single figure may be far more worrying for Fianna Fail than any other information in last Friday's poll.