The PDs would do a deal in the morning but unless they perform an amazing recovery act . . . not impossible, but difficult to see right now . . . it won't have the numbers. Labour and the Greens have basically ruled out coalition with Fianna Fail and while that could certainly change if they see cabinet positions slipping away, there are many in both parties that would balk at coalescing with Bertie Ahern given the recent controversy over his personal finances.

Sinn Fein would be keen as mustard to form a government with Fianna Fail, but the latter is absolutely emphatic that it will not form a government with Sinn Fein. If it does so, it will be the party's biggest u-turn since 1989 when it abandoned its core value of single party government.

If you are confused about the outcome this Sunday (and you are definitely not alone on that one), the bad news is that it could be even worse in seven days' time.

Of course, it will all be rendered redundant if Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens do the business. But that is still a huge ask. The Greens will pick up seats but, with its poll ratings slipping, nine TDs looks like the summit of their ambitions. Labour has run an excellent campaign and Pat Rabbitte hasn't put a foot wrong (a throwaway remark about a "menopausal Paris Hilton" aside) and looked impressive throughout. But, looking through the constituencies, it's hard to see where they will pick up that many seats, aside from Meath East, Dublin South-Central, Wicklow and possibly Dublin South. Against that, a number of their current seats look vulnerable.

So that leaves Fine Gael needing to win 50 seats for the Rainbow to be even close to forming a government. Is that possible? Certainly. Is it probable?

Hmmm, I know I'm in a minority but I still don't think so. Certainly the national polls show the party performing very strongly, but the local polls do not show Fine Gael making major gains. The most recent poll last week, by a highly reputable company, showed Fianna Fail actually making a gain in Cavan-Monaghan, which should be in the top six or seven targets for Fine Gael.

Fifty seats would be an increase of 19 from Fine Gael's 2002 performance.

Sure Garret FitzGerald achieved that and more in 1981, but he was helped by an increase in the number of TDs from 148 to 166 and, crucially, all bar a few of the seats were held by just three parties . . . FF, FG and Labour.

On Thursday, not only does Fine Gael have to win a huge number of seats from Fianna Fail, it has also to fight off competition from a strong Green Party, a highly organised Sinn Fein, the PDs, independents and its ally, the Labour Party. It's one thing to lose 23 seats, but it's even harder to win back close to that number with that level of competition.

Fianna Fail is going to lose a raft of seats and it's probably a safe bet that the party will have its worst electoral performance since 1927 in terms of first preference votes. But that won't worry the party hierarchy if Fianna Fail stays in the high 60s in terms of seat numbers.

With absolutely everything going for it in the last general election, Fianna Fail won 41.5% of the vote, suggesting the party should get used to its vote being in the 30s percentage . . . wise from now on.

But the good news for the party is that its lost votes are spread all over the place and have not gone in huge numbers to Fine Gael, which will be doing extremely well to come close to its 1997 performance when it narrowly lost the election.

The other solace for Fianna Fail is that the week just gone was (at last) a good one for the party. The Taoiseach finally succeeded in parking Bertiegate II until after the election; there was lots of good PR from Westminster; the party political broadcast was impressive and Ahern clearly won Thursday night's debate, albeit without landing a knockout blow on Kenny.

Seat forecasting is a hazardous business . . . numerous seats will go in ways that nobody could have predicted. But to avoid any accusations of fence sitting, I'm calling it that Fianna Fail will win 68 seats (down 13 from 2002); Fine Gael will be at 45/46 (up 15); Labour 21/22 (level/up one); Sinn Fein 10 (up five); Greens 9 (up three), PDs 2 (down six); Socialist Party 2 (up one) and others, including three from the Fianna Fail gene pool, at 8 (down five).

On those numbers the Rainbow would fall short, but a gain of just four seats would put it in a position to form a minority government. If Fianna Fail does win 68 seats it will be in government, most likely with Labour but who would be Taoiseach? It really is exceptionally tight but, for this writer, Bertie Ahern and Fianna Fail remain in pole position . . . just.