The second surge in betting is arising out of the political polls. Prior to the most recent polls there was a feeling that Fine Gael was going well nationally but was not gaining ground in Dublin.

The polls have shown that in Dublin Fianna Fail is at 29% and Fine Gael at 22%, so there has been a surge in money for Fine Gael's Dublin candidates.

ANALYSIS

MY FINE GAEL friends feel that I have got it wrong and that I have missed the extent of the FG surge. They say they will do much better than the 47 seats I have the party pinned down for. However, seasoned campaigners cannot believe in a surge for Fine Gael based on people wanting a change of government.

The opinions I am getting from my other sources as we get closer to polling day are becoming more and more diverse. My Fianna Fail sources say the party will get between 70 and 72 seats.

Reflecting on the campaigns, Fine Gael and Labour certainly won the first two and a half weeks of the campaign. The question now is whether it is all over or is it still fluid?

If it is still fluid, there is a potential of a Fianna Fail rally to alleviate the damage.

Secondly, while people might want to vote against the Fianna Fail-PD brand, that does not mean that they want to vote out their local Fianna Fail TD.

The Greens, who were really well poised going into this election, have had quite a disappointing campaign. They have been squeezed on two fronts as environmental issues have been sidelined and, secondly, their ambiguity as to which bloc they are supporting has left them falling between two stools.

The PDs continually state that in the last election they were written off and things are the same this time. My view is that it has gone from bad to worse and they are the real losers out of 'Bertiegate'. McDowell is not as popular as Harney was and the problems are extremely serious for them. There is a direct correlation between a Fine Gael success and a PD demise and vice versa.

Overall, I keep being told by most independent sources that Fine Gael and Labour will get a clearcut win and that it is no longer neck and neck.

My difficulty with that is that if I learned anything from 25 years in politics it is that you underestimate Fianna Fail at your perilf Our betting on the final number of seats gives a barometer of where things stand

Fianna Fail 57 or less. . . . . . . . 6/1 58 to 60. . . . . . . . . . 4/1 61 to 63. . . . . . . . . . . 7/2 64 to 66. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2/1 66 to 69. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2/1 70 to 72. . . . . . . . . . 5/2 73 to 75. . . . . . . . . 5/1 76 or more. . . . . . .7/1

Fine Gael 38 or less. . . . . . . . .7/1 39 to 41 seats. .5/1 42 to 44. . . . . . . . . . .3/1 45 to 47. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7/4 48 to 50. . . . . . . . . . 2/1 51 to 53. . . . . . . . . . . 4/1 54 to 56. . . . . . . . . .6/1 57 or more. . . . . . 9/1 Labour 18 or less. . . . . . . . .5/1 19-20. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5/2 21-22. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6/4 23-24. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7/4 25 or more. . . . . .4/1

PDs No seat. . . . . . . . . . . 9/4 1. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7/4 2. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4/5 3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11/10 4. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9/4 5. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9/2 6 or more. . . . . . 10/1 S

Sinn Fein 8 or less. . . . . . . . . . 4/1 9 or 10. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5/4 11. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7/4 12. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3/1 13. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9/2 14 or more. . . . . . . 7/1

Greens 8 or less. . . . . . . . . . 7/2 9. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6/4 10. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5/2 11. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7/2 12. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6/1 13 or more. . . . .10/1