While Fianna Fail has experienced electoral defeat in the past, only in 1992 did the party take a genuine pasting at the polls. Fifteen years ago, Fianna Fail was governing in difficult economic times, the party was bitterly divided and led by Albert Reynolds, who was not universally popular. Fianna Fail lost nine seats on a day when Fine Gael lost 10 as Dick Spring's Labour Party picked up 18 additional Dail places.

Now, unlike 15 years ago, the economy is strong, Fianna Fail is united and Bertie Ahern, despite all his troubles, remains incredibly well-liked. But not one of these strengths has so far helped in the current campaign.

After a decade in office, Fianna Fail has found the 2007 election a troublesome misadventure. Ahern's personal finances have been hugely distracting but the party's campaign has also been lacklustre, with incoherent messages and several policy gaps that have been exploited by its political opponents.

With opinion poll ratings in the region of 35%-37% the party looks set to lose seats. It would be a tremendous achievement at this stage if Fianna Fail holds 70 seats or more. If the lower of the opinion poll figures was achieved on polling day, seats previously considered safe would become far less secure.

Good candidates and hard working TDs would be cast aside. With fewer than 70 seats the party's prospect of remaining in government would look slim. The summer months would be about leadership change and readjusting to life on the opposition benches.

So what is the worst-case scenario for Fianna Fail next Friday as the results are announced?

1. Tipperary North Former minister Michael Smith or Maire Hoctor lose out. Fianna Fail strategists say the party was never going to hold this seat so its loss is of no concern to the national situation.

2. Cork South West Poor candidate selection means Joe Walsh's seat is lost.

3. Donegal North East Celia Keaveney or Neil Blaney give way to Sinn Fein. Again it's a local matter, Fianna Fail commentators tell the television results programmes.

4. Limerick West For only the second time ever, Fine Gael takes two out of three seats here. Fianna Fail panellists start to sit a bit uncomfortably in the TV studios.

5. Dublin North West Dessie Ellis of Sinn Fein takes Pat Carey's seat. Gerry Adams says his party is open to coalition talks with Fianna Fail.

6. Cork North Central The poor national vote and internal party problems cost Noel O'Flynn his seat. He becomes the first Fianna Fail TD to call on Bertie Ahern to stand aside.

7. Dublin North East Fianna Fail loses its second seat, most likely former minister Michael Woods. He says the party needs time to reflect on the election and warns about any blood-letting.

8. Dublin Central Bertie Ahern gets a huge vote but too many running mates means Mary Lou McDonald gets into the Dail. Albert Reynolds says the day has been very disappointing.

9. Louth The Fine Gael revival pushes Seamus Kirk to one side in favour of Mairead McGuinness.

10. Dublin South West Conor Lenihan becomes the first ministerial casualty of Election 2007. He says Ahern's position is not under threat but talks about the merits of Brian Cowen's leadership.

11. Cork South Central Not even Micheal Martin's strong personal vote is enough to hold three seats.

Simon Coveney of Fine Gael congratulates Enda Kenny on his election success.

Micheal Martin warns that Fine Gael and Labour may not have a Dail majority and he says it's too early to talk about leadership as Fianna Fail still has coalition options.

12. Dublin North Central Ivor Callely's dream of being taoiseach is over. He joins the 'conversation' about a possible leadership change. He also predicts that he'll be back.

13. Galway East The seat haemorrhage continues as Fine Gael takes a second seat unexpectedly at Fianna Fail's expense.

14. Laois Offaly Sean Fleming battles with Tom Parlon for the last seat with the PD man hanging on.

(Parlon later joins FF so there is no overall seat loss to the party. ) Cowen declines to speculate on the leadership issue but his backers in the parliamentary party are already working the phones.

15. Donegal South West Pat 'the Cope' Gallagher is cast aside as Sinn Fein takes his seat.

16. Dun Laoghaire Complete meltdown as Barry Andrews loses his seat. Mary Hanafin refuses to talk about her possible candidacy for the party leadership.

17. Waterford Sinn Fein's day is complete as outsider David Cullinane takes out Fianna Fail's Ollie Wilkinson. (Bertie Ahern records an interview with RTE's Charlie Bird in which he announces his intention to resign as Fianna Fail leader. )