NEITHER Cavan nor Down will win this Ulster championship. Chances are, neither will make it to an Ulster final and they certainly won't be around when the summer is shaved down to eight sides.
But we already knew that before last weekend's draw.
We knew Down hadn't won a game in Division One and were inept in their relegation to Division Three. We knew Cavan had fallen away feebly in a Division Two semi-final.
We knew both were mid-tier teams with limited ambitions and long-term goals. What we didn't know was just how entertaining it was all going to be.
Chances are it won't be this time around. It certainly won't if Cavan have their way.
They are the heavier, slower fighter and the more likely to win an orthodox bout.
What was surprising is they never realised that last week.
They were happy to follow rather than lead. They were glad to trade blows, risk knockouts and see what happens. That can't happen again and for them to win in Newry, they'll jab from the middle of the ring and let the judges award it to them on points.
Clearly manager Donal Keogan sees the need for that change. "We have plenty of work to do, and how successful we are could well decide the outcome of the replay, " he said in Breffni Park last Sunday. "The real plus is that when we looked dead and buried in the closing minutes we had the character and determination to get back into the match when we could have been gone from the Ulster Championship.
But we will have to curtail the influence of Benny Coulter next time out. He was a real dangerman, and when he is on form he ignites the Down attack. Overall, there is room for improvement in many areas of the field for the Cavan side and we will be working on that during the week in training." It's exactly why he has ripped up his teamsheet from last weekend and started from scratch.
Not one line remains the same as it did seven days ago.
The return of Michael Lyng to the starting 15 is a huge boost, while Mark McKeever is likely to be a handful for Declan Rooney after his move to full forward. Ciaran Galligan joins Dermot McCabe at centre-field while Jonathan Crowe, who scored a late goal in last week's game, is rewarded with a start from wing-back.
Down's line-up remain the same despite Ross Carr's worries. "We had two or three great chances to go four or five up and we didn't take any of them, " the Down manager said during the week. "We understand that we're never going to win a game 0-5 to 04 or 0-9 to 0-8, so our policy is to go and get as many scores as we can. We've a decent midfield and a good forward line, we've a defence that at times works hard as a unit."
He summed up Down's chances today. His side are exciting and would like to think they can outscore opponents at will. The fact is they can't and if it's any way tight, they won't. Especially with a porous defence. At times in the second half in Breffni Park they were sliced apart and as much as the last few minutes were down to immaturity, some of it was down to ability. Cavan have moved Michael Hannon from halfback to right-full with Crowe taking his place in the halfline. It should help slow up the Down attack and with Seanie Johnston and Paul Brady moving to the bench, Cavan look the stronger in that department too.
Donal Keogan has seen plenty of ways he can improve on the performance of last week and that's exactly why Cavan should win.
CAVAN James Reilly; M Hannon, E Reilly, M Cahill; J Crowe, A Forde, R Flanagan; D McCabe, C Galligan; L Reilly, M Lyng, S Brady; G Pierson, M McKeever, Jason Reilly DOWN Mickey McVeigh; D McCartan, D Rooney, K McGuigan; R Murtagh, B Grant, J Clarke; D Gordan, J Lynch; J. McGovern, A.
Carr, R Sexton; D Hughes, P Downey, B Coulter
ULSTER SFC PRELIMINARY ROUND REPLAY DOWN v CAVAN
Referee T Quigley (Dublin)
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