While most parties have promised some kind of reform on stamp duty if elected, which is good news, it's a fallacy to assume that the elimination of stamp duty will solve all our current problems in the property market.
Affordability is a much bigger issue. Interest rates have doubled in the last 18 months. Another interest rate hike is expected in June and a further hike is predicted later in the summer. Unfortunately, interest rates are governed by the European Central Bank, so we're just going to have to wait it out until they come down.
Another key issue affecting the property market, and which is a bigger money spinner for the government than stamp duty, is Vat.
The current Vat on new residential properties is 13.5%. Last year, 1.3bn was collected by the government in stamp duty, while Vat brought in a massive 2.7bn, but there's no talk of any parties reducing this revenue, and there isn't likely to be.
More could have and should have been done in last December's budget to alleviate some of the current market problems. And while most parties are now promising a reform of stamp duty, for it to really have an effect, changes would need to be implemented immediately, as soon as a new government is elected, as a failure to do so, I believe would damage the social fabric of society.
The property market is cyclical by nature and for the next 18 to 24 months we'll probably see 0% growth in house prices. However some form of change to stamp duty would ensure a much softer landing and encourage more activity in the market.
The top rate of stamp duty at present is too high and as a result does not allow room for the market to grow. It creates a glass price ceiling, which is creating negativity for vendors . . . the people who are trying to sell property. The 9% stamp duty should be abolished altogether. I would like to see an incremental tax being introduced, which ought to be a progressive incremental tax, which is paid on the higher "gure. The current 6% should be reduced to 5% on properties up to 635,000, while the 9% rate should be reduced to 7.5%.
The zero-rate ceiling of 317,500 is far too low. I would like to see the stamp duty threshold at 0% up to 450,000. This would be extremely benificial to buyers and sellers . . . purchasers would bene"t to the tune of 27,000.
Though whatever reduction there is in stamp duty, buyers shouldn't be too worried about developers increasing the price of new homes accordingly. Supply has now met demand in the new homes market, and we'll start to average around 50,000 new homes each year. While you may see some price increases in the more popular locations, overall the buyer should benefit from any changes, with developers offering more attractive deals.
The property market is very important in Ireland, and while firsttime buyers have been hit hard by rising prices, the market cannot rely on first-time buyers alone. We need every kind of buyer, including traders up, traders downs and investors back into the market. With the high interest rates, 13.5% Vat and 9% stamp duty, buying property for rental has become very expensive and not as profitable.
Further interest rate hikes this year will lead to higher inflation, averaging close to 5%, though hopefully we should start to see interest rates come down by 2009, and this coupled with immediate changes to stamp duty should be encouraging news to buyers and sellers and ensure a soft landing.
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